NBA Kalshi Update Jan 29: Giannis Trade Market Hot, Celtics Not

The biggest repricing on the NBA board hit Milwaukee, and it was not subtle. The trade market is now pricing Giannis Antetokounmpo as closer to a coin flip to be moved by February 6. That shockwave also showed up in Milwaukee’s playoff qualification contract, which is now priced like a real sweat.

The other central theme was Oklahoma City’s strength at the top of the futures board. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pushed higher in MVP, while Oklahoma City’s West and title markets stayed extremely liquid.

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Top Kalshi NBA Movers That Mattered

• • Giannis Antetokounmpo trade by February 6 surged from 29c to 54c. That is a 96.55% jump in the contract’s closing price relative to its opening price. The market is now pricing a real deadline outcome, not just noise.

• • Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team – stays with Milwaukee or retires collapsed from 78c to 45c. That is a 33c drop and a -47.44% move. Traders are no longer treating “stays" as the base case.

• • Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team – Golden State jumped from 4c to 18c. That is a 14c move and a 275% increase. It is also backed by massive two-way volume.

• • Boston Eastern Conference title odds fell from 25c to 15c. That is a 10c drop and a -24% move. The selloff also showed up in Boston’s Finals market.

• • Boston championship odds dropped from 8c to 4c. That is a -25% move on the day. Volume stayed heavy despite the repricing.

• • Cade Cunningham’s assists leader odds rose from 30c to 40c. That is a 43.33% jump in close-to-open. It also saw one of the most significant volume spikes in the league-leading markets.

• • Nikola Jokic assists, leader odds fell from 65c to 47c. That is a -21.54% move. The market flipped from a clear favorite profile to a contested race.

• • Victor Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year odds climbed from 32c to 38c. That is a 18.75% move with robust liquidity. The news cycle also included “Victor Wembanyama’s dominance caps Wednesday."

• • Portland playoff qualification odds dropped from 30c to 27c. That is a -10% move. The contract is still actively traded, but the direction is clear.

• • Charlotte playoff qualification odds moved from 19c to 22c. That is a 52.63% jump in close versus open. The move came with meaningful daily volume.

Kalshi NBA Volume and Order Book Highlights

• • Oklahoma City championship odds traded 10,732 contracts in the last twenty-four hours. Total volume sits at 1,581,187. The order book is deep on both sides.

• • San Antonio championship odds led the entire board with 62,626 contracts in the last twenty-four hours. Total volume is 3,071,059. Liquidity is also among the highest listed.

• • Boston’s Eastern Conference title odds saw 25,642 contracts traded over the last 24hours during the selloff. That is high conviction flow, not a drift.

• • Cleveland Eastern Conference title odds traded 22,294 contracts in the last twenty-four hours. The contract closed up at 16c after opening at 14c.

• • Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team – stays with Milwaukee or retires posted 191,591 contracts in the last twenty-four hours. Giannis to Golden State posted 191,685. That is rare, symmetric attention across outcomes.

• • Coby White trade by February 6 has a vast market, at 40c bid and 69c ask. That spread signals uncertainty and thin price discovery.

• • Nic Claxton trade by February 6 is even wider, at 36c bid and 76c ask. The market is pricing headline risk, not consensus.

• • Norman Powell All-Star is also extremely wide, at 67c bid and 95c ask. That is a pricing gap worth monitoring into selection day.

Kalshi NBA Notable Markets Worth Watching

• • Milwaukee playoff qualification odds are now just 3c bid and 8c ask, after closing down at 7c from 9c open. That is a sharp repricing alongside the Giannis trade shock.

• • Oklahoma City West title odds sit at 52c bid and 53c ask with substantial volume. Oklahoma City’s championship market is 41c bid and 43c ask, implying a large conversion gap.

• • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP odds moved from 74c to 76c bid, with an 81c close. The contract also traded 27,428 in the last twenty-four hours.

• • Deni Avdija Most Improved Player odds are 59c bid and 64c ask, with a 64c close. The contract continues to attract steady volume.

• • Darryn Peterson’s first overall pick odds are 54c bid, and 55c ask, with a 60c close. It is one of the cleaner, tighter draft markets today.

Kalshi NBA Market Edge

• • The trade board is driving the day. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s market moves were in sync, and volume confirmed conviction.

• • Boston took a coordinated hit. The Eastern Conference title and championship contracts both repriced at lower levels.

• • Oklahoma City remains the futures liquidity center. High volume is keeping spreads tight in the most significant contracts.

• • League leader markets are volatile. The assists leader race saw a significant two-way repricing between Cade Cunningham and Nikola Jokic.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 29.