NBA Kalshi Alerts Daily: Anthony Davis Prices Shift as Trade Deadline Looms

Anthony Davis trade markets were the headline mover today. Kalshi traders aggressively repriced the “stays with Dallas or retires" outcome, while the “will he be traded" contract moved in the opposite direction. That split is the cleanest signal in today’s board: the market is leaning toward Davis staying put, not a deadline exit.

The other big story was awards and playoff volatility. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s MVP contract pushed higher, while several playoff-qualification markets saw sharp one-day swings, including Golden State and Memphis in opposite directions.

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Top Kalshi Movers That Mattered

• • Anthony Davis next team (stays with Dallas or retires) jumped from 61c to 86c. That is a 40.98% move in the price history. It traded 2,025 contracts in the last twenty-four hours.

• • Anthony Davis trade contract (traded by Dallas before Feb 6) fell from 36c to 25c. That is a 30.56% drop in the price history. It still traded 1,039 contracts in the last twenty-four hours, so the repricing came with activity.

• • Milwaukee playoff qualification ripped from 7c to 18c. That is a 157.14% jump in the price history. It followed news that the Bucks are unclear on how long Giannis Antetokounmpo will be out, after initial reports of 4-6 weeks surfaced.

• • Memphis playoff qualification collapsed from 10c to 5c. That is a 50.0% drop in the price history. It also saw 2,571 contracts in the last twenty-four hours, so it was not a dead market.

• • Golden State playoff qualification surged from 53c to 64c. That is a 20.75% move in the price history. It came on a day when news broke that Stephen Curry and Draymond Green missed the Warriors’ game vs. the Wolves, underscoring how jumpy this contract can be.

• • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP rose from 71c to 78c. That is a 9.86% move in the price history. It traded 4,012 contracts in the last twenty-four hours.

• • Orlando playoff qualification slid from 80c to 73c. That is an 8.75% drop in the price history. It traded 710 contracts in the last twenty-four hours.

• • Denver Western Conference title fell from 20c to 18c. That is a 10.0% drop in the price history.

• • Cleveland Eastern Conference title climbed from 11c to 14c. That is a 27.27% move in the price history, with 15,045 contracts in the last twenty-four hours.

Kalshi Volume And Order Book Highlights

• • Los Angeles Lakers championship odds led the board in 44,815 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. The market was active even with the price flat at 3c-4c.

• • Boston championship odds were also a volume magnet at 26,438 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. The contract closed at 8c after opening 7c.

• • Nikola Jokic MVP was another liquidity hub, with 39,236 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. The price history was flat at 8c to 8c, despite the heavy churn.

• • Oklahoma City championship odds traded 17,435 contracts in the last twenty-four hours. The order book showed heavy depth on the “yes" side at 41c for 56,278 contracts.

• • Jaime Jaquez Jr. Sixth Man of the Year, saw a major volume spike at 13,671 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. The price history moved from 12c to 14c.

• • Giannis Antetokounmpo trade contract traded 8,045 contracts in the last twenty-four hours. The spread was tight at 26c bid and 29c ask, signaling steady two-way pricing.

• • Tyler Herro trade contract had an extreme spread at 32c bid and 98c ask. That is a 66-cent gap, which is classic thin-liquidity uncertainty.

Kalshi Notable Markets Worth Watching

• • Anthony Davis is now a two-contract story. “Stays with Dallas or retires" is priced at 77c bid and 83c ask, while “will be traded" sits at 21c bid and 25c ask. Traders should watch if those converge as Feb 6 approaches.

• • Giannis Antetokounmpo next team (stays with Milwaukee or retires) is priced at 73c bid and 77c ask, with 15,095 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. That is a high-attention market iinthe injury uncertainty.

• • Jonathan Kuminga trade contract is priced at 51c bid and 65c ask after a 7.04% drop in the price history. The spread is wide enough to invite volatility.

• • Chet Holmgren All-Star contract is priced at 65c bid and 69c ask after a 11.69% drop in the price history. It also traded 1,001 contracts in the last twenty-four hours.

• • Kon Knueppel Rookie of the Year fell from 23c to 19c in the price history. That is a 17.39% drop, with 3,380 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

Kalshi Market Edge

• • Trade markets are driving the tape—Davis and Giannis contracts combined for tens of thousands of contracts in open interest and strong daily volume.

• • Spreads are the tell. Tight pricing showed up in Giannis trade, while Herro’s trade market was effectively one-sided.

• • Awards liquidity is concentrated. MVP churn was massive, but the meaningful move was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander up to 78c.

• • Playoff qualification is still the best volatility hunting ground. Memphis, Golden State, and Milwaukee all posted double-digit percentage swings.

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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 27.