Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers

The biggest repricing on the Kalshi NBA board hit the Milwaukee playoff market. Milwaukee’s playoff qualification odds collapsed from 16c to 7c (down 56.25%). That is a massive confidence reset with real money behind it, with 1,077 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

The other headline was San Antonio’s title path getting marked down. San Antonio’s Western Conference title odds fell from 14c to 9c (down 35.71%), even as the Spurs remain one of the most actively traded teams on the futures board.

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Top Kalshi Movers That Mattered

- Milwaukee playoff qualification crashed from 16c to 7c (down 56.25%). The market also kept trade chatter active, with Giannis Antetokounmpo trade odds down from 30c to 27c on 3,368 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

- Chicago playoff qualification cratered from 32c to 22c (down 31.25%). That move lined up with a sharp repricing in the trade board, where Coby White trade odds dropped from 59c to 41c (down 30.51%).

- Orlando playoff qualification slid from 83c to 70c (down 15.66%) on a major activity spike, with 441 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

- San Antonio Western Conference title dropped from 14c to 9c (down 35.71%). The market still traded it heavily, with 10,330 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

- Dallas playoff qualification fell from 10c to 4c (down 60.0%). That weakness showed up in the trade board too, where Daniel Gafford trade odds jumped from 26c to 55c (up 111.54%).

- Oklahoma City championship odds moved the other way, dipping from 45c to 43c (down 4.44%), while Oklahoma City’s West title odds ticked up from 52c to 53c. That split is worth tracking.

- Luka Doncic MVP odds fell from 9c to 7c (down 22.22%). At the same time, Nikola Jokic MVP odds rose from 9c to 10c (up 11.11%).

- JB Bickerstaff Coach of the Year held at 50c to 52c, and the news feed noted he was named head coach in the 2026 All-Star Game.

Kalshi Volume And Order Book Highlights

- San Antonio championship odds led the entire snapshot in activity with 27,323 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. The market stayed tight at 7c bid and 8c ask.

- Houston championship odds also printed huge flow with 28,809 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, but the price slipped from 6c to 5c (down 16.67%).

- Oklahoma City championship odds remained the liquidity center, with 4,001 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours and 809,398 open interest. The order book showed heavy size on the “no" side at 56c bid for 29,110 contracts.

- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP was the busiest awards contract, with 46,603 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. The price still fell from 77c to 71c (down 7.79%).

- Jonathan Kuminga trade market saw 1,921 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours and a wide band, sitting at 61c bid and 70c ask. That spread signals uncertainty.

- LeBron James next team was extremely wide at 39c bid and 72c ask, a 33-cent spread. That is classic thin-liquidity pricing.

Kalshi Notable Markets Worth Watching

- Memphis playoff qualification is still priced at 5c bid and 11c ask, but the trade market moved. Ja Morant trade odds fell from 41c to 34c (down 17.07%), and the news feed reported Morant (UCL sprain) is out at least three weeks.

- Orlando playoff qualification vs. Orlando East title is a clean sentiment check. Orlando’s playoff price is 80c bid, while Orlando’s East title sits at 7c bid after a 12.5% drop.

- Oklahoma City West title vs. championship remains the key relationship on the board. Oklahoma City is 53c to win the West and 43c to win the title, with both markets carrying massive open interest.

- All-Star selection markets are seeing real flow. Joel Embiid All-Star is up from 28c to 35c (up 25.0%) on 4,198 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, while Chet Holmgren All-Star is down from 80c to 78c on 1,135 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.