Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers

Oklahoma City is still the center of gravity on Kalshi’s futures board. But Friday’s tape showed a split market. Oklahoma City’s Western Conference title odds slipped, while Oklahoma City’s championship odds held firm and even ticked up.

The bigger NBA story was the volatility in the middle class. Milwaukee’s playoff qualification odds took a hit, while several fringe playoff teams saw sharp repricing in both directions.

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Top Kalshi Movers That Mattered

Milwaukee Bucks Playoff Qualification crashed from 23c to 15c (30.43% drop). The market is now pricing a much steeper path to the postseason.
Minnesota Timberwolves’ Western Conference Title fell from 7c to 4c (42.86% drop). That is one of the sharpest percentage moves on the futures board.
Boston Celtics Eastern Conference Title dropped from 28c to 22c (14.29% drop). It is a meaningful reset in a high-liquidity market.
San Antonio Spurs Western Conference Title jumped from 10c to 11c (40.0% gain). The move came with heavy activity, not just a thin print.
Chicago Bulls Playoff Qualification surged from 22c to 20c on the bid, but the close moved 22c to 33c (50.0% gain). That is a significant disconnect between the candlestick close and the current bid.
Dallas Mavericks Playoff Qualification moved from 3c to 5c on the bid, with the close up 3c to 8c (166.67% gain). Even at low absolute prices, that is a significant repricing.
Phoenix Suns Playoff Qualification climbed from 79c to 85c on the bid, with the close up 79c to 86c (8.86% gain). It also traded heavily, so the move looks “real."
Toronto Raptors Playoff Qualification rose from 73c to 78c on the bid, with the close up 73c to 81c (10.96% gain). That is a notable jump for a market already priced as likely.
Oklahoma City Thunder Western Conference Title slipped from 55c to 51c (5.45% drop). At the same time, Oklahoma City’s championship odds closed 44c to 45c (2.27% gain), creating a slight but notable divergence.

Kalshi Volume And Order Book Highlights

Oklahoma City Thunder Championship led the futures board with 16,089 contracts in 24-hour trading volume. Open interest is also massive at 809,480.
Detroit Pistons Championship posted 22,925 contracts in 24-hour trading volume despite trading at 5c bid / 6c ask. That is unusually active for a longshot price.
The New York Knicks’ Eastern Conference Title saw 14,096 contracts traded in the last 24 hours. The market also closed up to 21c.
Philadelphia 76ers Eastern Conference Title printed 8,651 contracts in 24 hours, with 7c bid/8c ask. That is heavy churn at a low price.
Nikola Jokic for MVP led awards with 46,820 contracts traded in the last 24 hours, rising from 6c to 9c (50.0% gain).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP also stayed hot with 21,347 contracts in 24-hour volume, ticking up to 75c bid / 76c ask.
Victor Wembanyama for Defensive Player of the Year saw 7,413 contracts in 24-hour volume and closed 21c to 29c (38.1% gain).
Jonathan Kuminga’s trade market was one of the busiest event contracts at 10,575 contracts in 24-hour volume, priced 51c bid / 68c ask.
Anthony Davis’s trade market traded 3,019 contracts in the last 24 hours and is priced 37c bid / 39c ask. The related “stays with Dallas or retires" market is 62c bid / 64c ask.
Oklahoma City Thunder Western Conference Title shows extreme depth on the yes side, including 1,000,450 contracts bid at 51c. That is institutional-sized liquidity.

Kalshi Notable Markets Worth Watching

Oklahoma City Thunder title stack is the cleanest “pricing chain" to monitor. The board has 51c to win the West and 44c to win the title.
Boston Celtics futures are moving together. Boston’s Eastern Conference title odds fell to 22c bid, and Boston’s championship odds closed 8c to 6c (25.0% drop).
Milwaukee Bucks playoff vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo trade is a live tension point. Milwaukee playoff qualification closed down to 16c, while Giannis Antetokounmpo’s trade odds closed 26c to 30c (15.38% gain).
All-Star markets are getting volatile in the mid-tier. Paolo Banchero to be an All-Star closed 14c to 27c (92.86% gain), and Joel Embiid to be an All-Star closed 14c to 28c (100.0% gain).
Rookie of the Year is churning. Kon Knueppel for Rookie of the Year closed 18c to 24c (33.33% gain), while Cooper Flagg for Rookie of the Year closed 81c to 75c (7.41% drop).

Kalshi Market Edge

The biggest futures shock was Milwaukee’s playoff crash, down to 15c bid. That is a market-wide signal, not a niche move.
Oklahoma City remains the liquidity hub, with massive open interest in both conference and title markets.
Awards volume is concentrating at the top, led by Nikola Jokic’s MVP and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP bids.
Trade markets are active and wide, especially for Jonathan Kuminga and Michael Porter Jr., which can create fast repricing windows.