NBA Kalshi Update Jan 24: Huge Volume Behind Giannis Trade Odds

Milwaukee’s board was the loudest signal on January 24. The market hit the Bucks from multiple angles, with playoff qualification odds collapsing and trade-related contracts repricing hard into the February 6 deadline.

Oklahoma City was the other major storyline. The Thunder’s Western Conference title price slid, but their best record and Finals markets held up, creating a notable cross-market tension.

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Top Kalshi NBA Movers That Mattered

Milwaukee Bucks Playoff Qualification crashed from 23c to 7c (down 30.43%), one of the sharpest drops on the futures board.
Memphis Grizzlies Playoff Qualification fell from 12c to 8c (down 33.33%), pushing the contract back toward longshot territory.
Atlanta Hawks Playoff Qualification slid from 44c to 51c on the bid but closed at 37c (down 15.91%), a messy tape that signals volatility.
Oklahoma City Thunder Western Conference title odds moved from 53c to 48c (down 9.43%), despite Oklahoma City’s Finals price staying firm.
Boston Celtics Finals odds jumped from 6c to 8c (up 33.33%), with $23,418 in 24-hour trading volume behind the move.
Detroit Pistons Finals odds also rose from 6c to 8c (up 33.33%), matching Boston’s percentage pop off a low base.
Nikola Jokic’s MVP odds surged from 5c to 10c (up 100.0%) on massive activity, with $39,626 in 24-hour trading volume.
Cade Cunningham’s MVP odds were ripped from 3c to 7c (up 133.33%), another significant repricing in the awards complex.
Michael Porter Jr. trade odds (Brooklyn) spiked from 30c to 67c (up 123.33%), a dramatic deadline-driven move.
Anthony Davis trade odds (Dallas) doubled from 21c to 42c (up 100.0%), with 2,314 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.
Giannis Antetokounmpo trade odds (Milwaukee) jumped from 32c to 60c (up 87.5%), while his “stays with Milwaukee or retires" next-team contract fell from 73c to 63c (down 13.7%).

Kalshi NBA Volume And Order Book Highlights

Giannis Antetokounmpo trade market led the slate with 24,685 contracts in 24-hour trading volume, signaling sustained two-way interest.
Cade Cunningham, MVP, posted 50,238 contracts traded in the last 24 hours, the highest award volume in the dataset.
Nikola Jokic MVP was close behind at 39,626 contracts in 24-hour volume, confirming the move was not a thin-market blip.
Orlando Magic Playoff Qualification saw a significant volume spike at 7,070 contracts in 24-hour volume, even as the price stayed near 82c-84c.
Oklahoma City Thunder Western Conference title showed extreme depth at 52c for 50,576 contracts on the yes side and 44c for 50,384 contracts on the no side, a rare “both sides loaded" book.
RJ Barrett trade market (Toronto) had a massive spread at 25c bid and 92c ask, a sign of thin liquidity and uncertainty.

Kalshi NBA Notable Markets Worth Watching

Milwaukee’s playoff and trade markets are now linked. The Bucks’ playoff qualifier is 7c bid, while Giannis trade is 60c bid.
Oklahoma City’s futures stack is conflicted. The Thunder are 88c to have the league’s best record, but only 45c to win the Finals.
Boston’s title path is priced with a steep drop-off. The Celtics are 98c to make the playoffs, but only 8c to win the Finals.
All-Star selection markets are moving fast. Joel Embiid All-Star jumped from 15c to 29c (up 93.33%), while Pascal Siakam All-Star fell from 50c to 32c (down 36.0%).

Kalshi NBA Market Edge

Deadline markets are driving the day’s biggest reprices. Giannis, Davis, and Porter all moved into double digits.
Awards traders are rotating into long shots. Cunningham and Jokic both posted triple-digit percentage gains.
Watch for widespread traps. Barrett’s trade market is priced with extreme uncertainty.
Deep books matter most in the biggest markets. Oklahoma City’s West title order book is unusually thick on both sides.

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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 24.