Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Friday, January 23

Eight NBA games headline Friday’s slate. There’s a clean mix of pace environments, rest edges, and a few injury-driven attack opportunities.

After scanning every available prop market in the data, four numbers stand out as mispriced. Each pick below is supported by recent hit rates, matchup context, and either opponent history, splits, or schedule leverage.

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Pascal Siakam Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Matchup

• Arena: Paycom Center
• Location: Oklahoma City, OK
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 23, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET

Odds as of January 23, 2026, at 8:07 AM ET

Pascal Siakam enters tonight’s matchup in full-on form. He has cleared this line in 100% of his last five games and 80% of his previous ten. He is also averaging 34.8 points + rebounds + assists on the season. That sits 2.3 above this number. The floor is stable too, with a 29.5 floor and a 41.0 ceiling. Even with a modest 40% hit rate in ten games vs Oklahoma City, the current streak and season baseline make this a strong over at a slightly improved best price.

Nic Claxton Over 6.5 Rebounds

Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets Matchup

• Arena: Barclays Center
• Location: Brooklyn, NY
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 23, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET

Odds as of January 23, 2026, at 8:07 AM ET

Nic Claxton is a matchup-history play first. He has cleared 6.5 rebounds in 85.71% of his last seven games against Boston. He is also averaging 7.5 rebounds on the season, which is one full board above the line. The home split supports it, too, with 8.3 rebounds at home versus 7.0 on the road. Boston also ranks 27th in rebounds allowed to centers at 6.4 per game, versus a league-average baseline of 7.1. The recent form is shakier at 30% over the last ten, but the opponent-specific profile is strong enough to keep this over in play.

Trey Murphy Over 20.5 Points

New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies Matchup

• Arena: FedExForum
• Location: Memphis, TN
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 23, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET

Odds as of January 23, 2026, at 8:07 AM ET

Trey Murphy has been living above this number. He has cleared 20.5 points in 80% of his last five games and 80% of his previous ten. His season average is 22.0 points, which is 1.5 points above the line. The road split is also a plus, with 20.7 points away versus 23.0 at home. The range supports upside, too, with a 17.25 floor and 24.75 ceiling. Memphis is not a clear target defense here, but the recent scoring profile makes the over playable at this number.

Jerami Grant Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Toronto Raptors @ Portland Trail Blazers Matchup

• Arena: Moda Center
• Location: Portland, OR
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 23, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET

Odds as of January 23, 2026, at 8:07 AM ET

Jerami Grant is priced like a fringe role player, but his production says otherwise. He has cleared 18.5 points + rebounds + assists in 90% of his last ten games and 80% of his previous five. He is also averaging 26.0 on the season, which is 7.5 above the line. The opponent history is perfect, too, with 100% hits in two games versus Toronto. The floor is also strong at 21.0, with a ceiling of 31.0. Portland is on one day of rest, while Toronto is on a back-to-back, but the number is so low that the best-price discount is doing the heavy lifting.

The Betting Edge

This slate has enough volume to stay selective. The best approach is still price discipline and line shopping, especially when the data shows a multi-angle edge.

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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 23.