Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers

Milwaukee’s playoff qualification market was the loudest signal on the board. The “yes" side is now priced like a long shot, and it happened alongside a major repricing in the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade complex.

The other headline was Boston’s futures reset. The Celtics took a hit in both conference and title markets, and the move came with real volume.

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Top Kalshi Movers That Mattered

- Milwaukee Playoff Qualification cratered from 14c to 6c (down 57.14%), a massive repricing for a binary season-long outcome.

- Philadelphia Playoff Qualification dropped from 90c to 76c (down 15.56%), one of the biggest playoff-board moves.

- Phoenix Playoff Qualification fell from 86c to 73c (down 15.12%), pushing the “yes" side into the mid-seventies.

- Boston Championship Odds slid from 8c to 6c (down 25.0%), a meaningful move in a high-liquidity futures market.

- Orlando Eastern Conference Title Odds fell from 9c to 7c (down 22.22%), a sharp two-cent cut at low prices.

- San Antonio Western Conference Title Odds dropped from 12c to 10c (down 16.67%), a notable reset given how much this market trades.

- Detroit Eastern Conference One Seed fell from 76c to 68c (down 10.53%), a big move for a top-seed contract.

- Chet Holmgren Defensive Player of the Year moved from 48c to 44c (down 8.33%), with active two-way pricing.

- Golden State Playoff Qualification rose from 50c to 56c (up 12.0%), a clean six-cent jump in a heavily traded team market.

- Nikola Jokic for MVP climbed from 10c to 12c (up 20.0%), a rare upward move in a crowded awards book.

Kalshi Volume And Order Book Highlights

- San Antonio Championship Odds led the NBA board in 24-hour trading volume at 40,946 contracts, with 2,167,901 open interest still outstanding.

- Oklahoma City Championship Odds also stayed extremely active with 35,896 contracts traded in the last 24 hours and 785,866 open interest.

- Nikola Jokic MVP was the biggest awards-volume magnet at 173,730 contracts traded in the last 24 hours.

- Oklahoma City Western Conference title showed deep “yes" support, including 50,089 contracts bid at 52c in the visible order book.

- Boston Eastern Conference title had strong depth on both sides, including 54,049 contracts bid at 20c and 50,495 contracts offered at 76c.

- Boston, Eastern Conference one seed, was one of the widest markets, showing a 12-cent spread (8c bid, 20c ask).

- Michael Porter Jr. trade market stayed extremely wide at a 38-cent spread (36c bid, 74c ask), signaling uncertainty and thin conviction.

- Seattle team before 2030 was also extremely wide at a 56-cent spread (22c bid, 78c ask), a classic illiquidity tell.

Kalshi Notable Markets Worth Watching

- Giannis Antetokounmpo trade odds were priced at 23c to be traded, while his “next team" market priced 75c that he stays with Milwaukee or retires. Both markets traded heavily in the last 24 hours, so this relationship stays important.

- Anthony Davis trade complex stayed active. The market priced 26c to be traded, while 70c if he stays with Dallas or retires.

- Oklahoma City’s top-of-board positioning remained consistent across markets: 53c to win the West, 43c to win the title, and 87c to have the league’s best record.