NBA Injury Report Jan. 26: Betting Impact of Embiid, Garland Absences

Cleveland’s backcourt is the slate’s biggest injury driver. Darius Garland is out, forcing Donovan Mitchell into an even heavier creation role against an Orlando team that is also missing a primary scorer in Franz Wagner.

Across seven games, several teams are dealing with meaningful absences, including Joel Embiid and Paul George, both out for Philadelphia, plus Santi Aldama out for Memphis. Those are the spots where bettors should be most sensitive to late market movement and live-betting opportunities.

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Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers Injury Report & Trends

• • Cleveland’s offense is built to score, but the guard rotation is thin tonight.

• • Darius Garland is out, and Cleveland has been better without him this season: 13-13 with Garland (50.0% win rate, plus-2.8 net rating) versus 14-7 without (66.7%, plus-1.6).

• • With Garland sidelined, Donovan Mitchell (29.1 points per game) becomes the clear engine, and the Cavaliers’ starting group is already projecting with Mitchell at point guard.

• • Sam Merrill is out, and Cleveland’s team results swing hard: 16-8 with Merrill (66.7%, plus-6.3 net rating) versus 11-12 without (47.8%, minus-2.0).

• • Orlando is missing a significant piece, too. Franz Wagner is out, and the Magic have dipped: 14-11 with Wagner (56.0%, plus-2.0 net rating) versus 8-10 without (44.4%, minus-5.2).

• • The matchup sets up as a shot-creation test. Cleveland’s missing guards can push Mitchell’s scoring and assist markets upward, while Orlando’s missing Wagner can concentrate usage on the remaining starters.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Hornets Injury Report & Trends

• • This game has the most star power missing on one side.

• • Joel Embiid is out, but Philadelphia has held steady: 14-11 with Embiid (56.0%, plus-2.2 net rating) versus 10-8 without (55.6%, plus-2.1).

• • Paul George is also out, and the split is similarly stable: 14-11 with George (56.0%, plus-2.4 net rating) versus 10-8 without (55.6%, plus-1.8).

• • With Embiid and George off the floor, the offense is clearly built around Tyrese Maxey (29.9 points per game, 6.8 assists per game). The projected starters reflect that, with Andre Drummond at center.

• • Charlotte has a key guard trending toward playing. Collin Sexton (hamstring) is probable.

• • If Sexton is active, it stabilizes Charlotte’s ball-handling behind LaMelo Ball. If he sits, the Hornets’ creation burden concentrates even more on Ball and Brandon Miller.

Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks Injury Report & Trends

• • Indiana’s rotation is missing a meaningful scoring guard, and it shows up in the team’s results.

• • Bennedict Mathurin is out, and the Pacers have struggled: 5-19 with Mathurin (20.8% win rate, minus-6.8 net rating) versus 6-16 without (27.3%, minus-9.6).

• • Quenton Jackson (ankle) is questionable, which matters for depth. Indiana is 5-15 with Jackson (minus-8.8 net rating) versus 6-20 without (minus-7.6).

• • Atlanta is also down frontcourt scoring. Kristaps Porzingis is out, and the Hawks have been worse without him: 9-8 with Porzingis (52.9%, plus-3.2 net rating) versus 13-16 without (44.8%, minus-3.7).

• • With Porzingis out, Atlanta’s starting group leans on Jalen Johnson (23.2 points per game, 10.5 rebounds per game, 8.0 assists per game) as the do-everything hub.

• • Betting angle: Porzingis’ absence can pull Atlanta’s spacing and rim protection in different directions. It also keeps Johnson’s all-around stat profile in focus for props.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Chicago Bulls Injury Report & Trends

• • The Lakers are missing a high-usage guard, and it reshapes their shot distribution.

• • Austin Reaves is out, and Los Angeles has been slightly worse without him: 14-8 with Reaves (63.6% win rate, minus-0.8 net rating) versus 12-9 without (57.1%, minus-0.5).

• • With Reaves out, the creation load consolidates around Luka Doncic (33.4 points per game, 8.7 assists per game) and LeBron James (22.3 points per game, 6.9 assists per game).

• • Chicago has a key guard who is likely to miss. Tre Jones (hamstring) is doubtful.

• • If Jones sits, Chicago’s ball-handling leans even more on Josh Giddey (18.8 points per game, 8.9 assists per game), with Coby White as the other primary perimeter scorer.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Boston Celtics Injury Report & Trends

• • Portland’s injury list is long, and several rotation pieces are either out or day-to-day.

• • Deni Avdija is day-to-day, and he is a significant production piece at 26.0 points per game with a 29.3% usage rate. Portland is 21-20 with Avdija (51.2%, minus-1.5 net rating) versus 2-2 without (50.0%, minus-0.5).

• • Robert Williams III is day-to-day, and Portland is 15-14 with him (51.7%, minus-1.0 net rating) versus 8-8 without (50.0%, minus-2.1).

• • Boston’s notable name on the report is Luka Garza (illness), questionable. The Celtics are 22-14 with Garza (61.1%, plus-7.6 net rating) versus 6-3 without (66.7%, plus-3.0).

• • Boston’s team profile is strong overall at 28-17 with a plus-6.6 net rating, so bettors will mostly be watching Portland’s day-to-day statuses for late movement.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets Injury Report & Trends

• • Memphis is missing multiple key contributors, and the frontcourt absence is the biggest swing.

• • Santi Aldama is out, and Memphis has cratered without him: 18-23 with Aldama (43.9% win rate, minus-1.0 net rating) versus 0-2 without (minus-4.0).

• • Ja Morant is out, and Memphis has been better without him this season: 7-13 with Morant (35.0%, minus-1.3 net rating) versus 11-12 without (47.8%, minus-0.9).

• • Houston is missing a key big. Steven Adams is out, and the Rockets have been worse without him: 21-11 with Adams (65.6%, plus-7.4 net rating) versus 6-5 without (54.5%, plus-2.4).

• • With Adams out, Houston’s interior workload leans more heavily on Alperen Sengun (21.2 points per game, 9.0 rebounds per game, 6.4 assists per game).

• • Market angle: Memphis’ Aldama absence is the clearest downgrade. Houston’s Adams’ absence can be seen in rebounding and second-chance opportunities.

Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report & Trends

• • Golden State is dealing with rotation absences on the back end of a back-to-back.

• • Jonathan Kuminga is out, and Golden State has been better without him: 9-11 with Kuminga (45.0%, minus-1.0 net rating) versus 16-10 without (61.5%, plus-5.6).

• • Jimmy Butler III is out for the season (ACL), and the Warriors are still adjusting to life without him: 23-15 with Butler versus 2-6 without.

• • Minnesota has one notable absence. Terrence Shannon Jr. is out, and the Timberwolves are 13-7 with him (65.0%, plus-3.0 net rating) versus 14-11 without (56.0%, plus-6.4).

• • Betting angle: Golden State’s depth is being tested on this back-to-back, with more on-ball responsibility falling to Stephen Curry.

NBA Injury Statistical Impact Analysis January 26

• • Houston is 21-11 with Steven Adams (plus-7.4 net rating) versus 6-5 without (plus-2.4).

• • Orlando is 14-11 with Franz Wagner (plus-2.0 net rating) versus 8-10 without (minus-5.2).

• • Cleveland is 16-8 with Sam Merrill (plus-6.3 net rating) versus 11-12 without (minus-2.0).

NBA Injury Betting And Fantasy Implications

• • Donovan Mitchell’s role spikes with Darius Garland out, especially as a primary initiator in the projected lineup.

• • Tyrese Maxey becomes the offensive centerpiece with Joel Embiid and Paul George out, keeping his points and assists props in play.

• • Santi Aldama’s absence is a major blow to Memphis’ frontcourt stability, and it could elevate Houston’s rebounding and paint-touching.

• • Austin Reaves out-consolidates Los Angeles creation around Luka Doncic and LeBron James, which can narrow the prop pool to their scoring and playmaking.

• • Golden State continues to adjust without Jimmy Butler III (out for the season), which keeps Stephen Curry’s usage elevated.

NBA Injury Players To Monitor

• • Collin Sexton, Charlotte Hornets

• • Quenton Jackson, Indiana Pacers

• • Luka Garza, Boston Celtics

• • Steven Adams, Houston Rockets

• • Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers

• • Robert Williams III, Portland Trail Blazers

• • Neemias Queta, Boston Celtics

• • Jake LaRavia, Los Angeles Lakers

The Betting Edge

Cleveland’s guard injuries are the slate’s biggest rotation shakeup, especially for Donovan Mitchell’s workload. Philadelphia without Embiid and George puts all the creation on Tyrese Maxey. Watch for late updates on Portland’s day-to-day starters and any market reaction tied to those confirmations. 

Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 26.