Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers

The trade complex was the story on Kalshi heading into February 6, with Anthony Davis markets whipsawing in opposite directions and Ja Morant’s “next team" board repricing sharply. The headline move was Davis’s “stays with Dallas or retires" outcome collapsing from 90c at the open to 41c at the close, while the separate “will he be traded by Dallas" market ripped higher on the day.

On the awards side, Cooper Flagg’s Rookie of the Year price slid, while Kon Knueppel surged, creating a two-way rotation at the top of that board.

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Top Kalshi Movers That Mattered

Anthony Davis Stays With Dallas Or Retires:

The biggest shock was the “next team" outcome for Anthony Davis (stays with Dallas or retires) getting repriced lower, with the candlestick showing 90c open to 41c close (down 49c, -54.44%). The current market is still wide at 49c bid and 74c ask, signaling that traders are not aligned on the new baseline.

Anthony Davis Traded By Dallas (By February 6):

The companion market moved the other way, with “will Anthony Davis be traded by Dallas before February 6, 2026" showing 10c open to 58c close (up 48c, +480.0%). That is a significant shift in implied probability, and it came with real activity: 3,391 contracts traded over the last twenty-four hours.

Ja Morant Next Team – Miami:

The “next team" outcome for Ja Morant landing in Miami spiked from 20c open to 53c close (up 33c, +165.0%), with 8,636 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. Notably, this is a different question than “will he be traded," and the market is pricing a meaningful chance of a Miami outcome even with a wide current spread (48c bid, 72c ask).

Boston Eastern Conference One Seed:

Boston’s Eastern Conference one-seed market posted one of the most significant percentage jumps in the futures set, moving from 16c open to 37c close (up 21c, +131.25%). Despite the jump, the current market is still relatively illiquid and wide (12c bid, 17c ask), which can amplify percentage swings.

Kon Knueppel Rookie Of The Year:

Kon Knueppel surged in Rookie of the Year, with 13c open to 19c close (up 6c, +46.15%) on 18,520 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. That is one of the cleanest “volume plus movement" signals on the board today.

Kalshi Volume And Order Book Highlights

Oklahoma City Title Markets Remain The Liquidity Center:

Oklahoma City’s championship market led the entire slate in the last twenty-four hours with 35,359 contracts, with massive depth on both sides of the book (for example, the 43c bid showing 20,155 contracts and the 56c no-bid showing 39,826 contracts). Even with that liquidity, the candlestick still ticked up from an open of 43c to a close of 44c (+2.33%).

Trade Markets Drew The Most Urgent Flow:

Ja Morant will be traded by Memphis before February 6: traded 10,421 contracts in the last twenty-four hours, but the candlestick was relatively stable (72c open to 71c close, -1.39%).

Giannis Antetokounmpo stays with Milwaukee or retires: saw 13,354 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, while sliding from 90c open to 81c close (down 9c, -10.0%).

Anthony Davis will be traded: traded 3,391 contracts in the last twenty-four hours, and the “stays with Dallas or retires" outcome traded 1,471 contracts over the previous twenty-four hours, but with a far wider spread, suggesting more disagreement in the “next team" framing than the binary “trade" framing.

All-Star Selection Markets Showed Big Spreads, Big Opinions: 

Several All-Star markets traded with unusually wide bid-ask ranges, a sign of uncertainty and lower liquidity. Alperen Sengun was 73c bid and 97c ask, and Pascal Siakam was 40c bid and 60c ask. Those are the types of markets where a single headline or a few larger orders can move pricing quickly.

Kalshi Notable Markets Worth Watching

Rookie Of The Year Is Rebalancing At The Top:

Cooper Flagg fell from 85c open to 78c close (down 7c, -8.24%) while Kon Knueppel rose from 13c to 19c (+46.15%). With both names seeing heavy volume over the last twenty-four hours (6,002 for Flagg, 18,520 for Knueppel), this looks like real repricing rather than a thin-market blip.

Minnesota’s Western Conference Price Jumped Off The Page:

Minnesota’s Western Conference title market moved from 5c open to 9c close (up 4c, +80.0%). The current quote is still just 6c bid and 9c ask, but it traded 7,482 contracts in the last twenty-four hours, which is meaningful for a single-digit futures price.

Philadelphia Playoff Qualification Drifted Higher:

Philadelphia’s playoff qualification market closed at 81c after opening 77c (+5.19%), with the current quote at 73c bid and 82c ask. The spread is wide enough that traders should treat the “headline price" cautiously until the book tightens.

Kalshi Market Edge

• Trade markets are driving the tape into February 6, led by Anthony Davis, with the market repricing sharply in both “trade" and “next team" formats.
• Rookie of the Year is seeing a high-volume rotation, with Kon Knueppel gaining while Cooper Flagg gives back ground.
• Watch wide-spread markets (especially “next team" and All-Star selection) for volatility, because pricing can gap quickly when liquidity is thin.

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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 15.