Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Market Movers
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The biggest story in Kalshi’s NBA board on 1-16 was a sharp repricing in the “next team" and trade complex, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis. Traders pushed down “stays put" probabilities in both cases, while several individual trade markets saw meaningful upside follow-through into the February 6 deadline window.
Dunk on the Prediction Markets with SportsGrid’s Free NBA Picks and Player Props Markets.
Top Kalshi Movers That Mattered
Giannis Antetokounmpo Stays With Milwaukee Or Retires: The “next team" contract for staying with Milwaukee (or retiring) slid hard, down 14c on the candle from 86c to 72c (a -16.28% move). Even after the drop, the market is still pricing “stays" at 75c bid and 76c ask, but the direction is clear: traders are demanding a much larger premium to hold the stay outcome.
Anthony Davis Stays With Dallas or Retires: This was the cleanest “belief shift" on the board. Davis’s “stays with Dallas (or retires)" contract fell from 79c to 54c on the candle (-31.65%), and it’s now 55c bid and 62c ask. That is a wide spread for a headline market, signaling uncertainty and potentially thin liquidity at the new level.
Malik Monk Traded By February 6: Monk’s trade market ripped higher, with the candle moving from 37c to 78c (+110.81%). Despite the huge close, the current market is still only 56c bid and 76c ask, which is an unusually wide gap for a contract that just printed a significant move.
Herbert Jones Traded By February 6: Jones’s trade probability surged from 12c to 19c (+58.33%). The market is now 32c bid and 57c ask, another very wide spread that suggests the last traded price is not being met with consistent two-sided agreement.
New York Eastern Conference One Seed: New York’s one-seed market collapsed from 26c to 7c on the candle (-73.08%). The current 10c bid and 18c ask show the market is still struggling to find equilibrium after the air pocket.
Kalshi Volume And Order Book Highlights
The highest activity today was concentrated in long-dated futures, with Oklahoma City’s championship market trading 4,430 contracts over the last twenty-four hours and sitting at 43c bid and 44c ask. Oklahoma City’s Western Conference title market also remained extremely liquid, with 1,171 contracts traded over the last twenty-four hours and a tight 51c to 52c range.
On the awards side, Victor Wembanyama’s Defensive Player of the Year market was the volume leader, trading 53,133 contracts over the last twenty-four hours. Price action went the other way, with the candle dropping from 22c to 17c (-22.73%), and the market is now 16c bid and 17c ask.
The trade complex also showed real engagement:
Giannis Antetokounmpo “next team" traded 9,893 contracts in the last twenty-four hours, reinforcing that the move was not a one-off print.
Ja Morant “traded by February 6" traded 4,484 contracts in the last twenty-four hours and is now 78c bid and 79c ask, a relatively tight spread compared to other trade names.
Kalshi Notable Markets Worth Watching
The board is flashing a “deadline uncertainty" theme, but it is not uniform. Some markets are efficient, others are not.
Anthony Davis Trade Vs. Next Team: Davis’s “traded by February 6" market is 37c bid and 42c ask, while the “stays with Dallas (or retires)" next-team contract is 55c bid and 62c ask. Both can be true because they resolve on different conditions. Still, the combination of a massive candle drop in “stays" and a still-wide spread suggests traders should expect continued volatility.
All-Star Markets Are Getting Choppy: Several All-Star contracts posted notable candle moves with meaningful volume. Chet Holmgren jumped from 75c to 93c (+24.0%) and traded 1,696 contracts in the last twenty-four hours. LeBron James moved the other way, from 88c to 81c (-7.95%) on 2,392 contracts over the previous twenty-four hours.
Rookie Of The Year Divergence: Kon Knueppel rose from 13c to 17c (+30.77%) while Cooper Flagg slipped from 84c to 80c (-4.76%). Both markets traded actively over the last twenty-four hours (3,449 for Knueppel, 910 for Flagg), making the divergence more meaningful than a low-volume drift.
Kalshi Market Edge
- The February 6 trade window is driving the day’s biggest repricings, but wide bid-ask spreads across several trade names suggest the market remains fragile.
- Oklahoma City’s title markets remain the liquidity center of the futures board, with tight spreads and heavy volume supporting stable pricing.
- Awards volatility is being led by Defensive Player of the Year, where Victor Wembanyama saw massive volume alongside a meaningful price drop.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 16.
