Daily NBA Prediction Markets Wrapped: Kalshi Trade Markets Rise

The loudest signal on Kalshi today was trade-driven, not standings-driven. Anthony Davis’s “stays with Dallas or retires” next-team outcome ripped higher, closing at 83c after opening at 39c, a 44-cent jump and a 112.82% move. That kind of repricing usually only shows up when traders believe the information set has changed materially, and the follow-through in volume (1,514 contracts in the last twenty-four hours) confirms it was not a one-off print.

The other headline was a wave of volatility in playoff qualification markets, where several mid-tier teams saw double-digit percentage swings. Miami’s playoff qualification odds were the biggest downside mover in that group, while Phoenix and Atlanta moved sharply the other way.

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Top movers that mattered

Anthony Davis Stays Put

– Anthony Davis next team (stays with Dallas or retires): up 44 cents from 39c to 83c (up 112.82%). The market is now pricing this as a heavy favorite, but the 81c to 89c bid-ask spread is still wide enough to signal lingering uncertainty despite the move.

More Morant Moves

– Ja Morant trade market (traded by Memphis before Feb. six): up 32 cents from 39c to 71c (up 82.05%) on 3,464 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. That is a major repricing into “more likely than not,” and it pairs with a sharp move the other way in the next-team framing.

– Ja Morant next team (stays with Memphis or retires): down 14 cents from 47c to 33c (down 29.79%) with 1,212 traded in the last twenty-four hours. Traders are effectively shifting probability mass away from “stays” and into “moved,” consistent with the trade market spike.

Heat Cooling Off

– Miami playoff qualification odds: down 16 cents from 83c to 67c (down 19.28%). The order book shows meaningful interest on the “no” side, including size posted at 24c.

Grizzlies Not Growling

– Memphis playoff qualification odds: down nine cents from 19c to 10c (down 47.37%). Even with only 101 traded in the last twenty-four hours, the magnitude of the drop and the still-wide 11c to 16c spread point to a fragile price that can gap on limited liquidity.

Scorching Suns Odds

– Honorable mention: Phoenix playoff qualification odds closed at 81c after opening at 73c, up eight cents (up 10.96%), and Atlanta playoff qualification odds closed at 52c after opening at 47c, up five cents (up 10.64%) on a massive 1,792 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

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Volume and order book highlights

We Are (Still) The Champions

– Oklahoma City’s championship odds remain the liquidity center of the futures board: 11,654 traded in the last twenty-four hours and 765,091 open interest, with a tight 42c to 43c market. Notably, Oklahoma City’s Western Conference title odds sit at 51c to 54c, implying a meaningful gap between “win the West” and “win it all,” which is normal, but the championship price (42c bid) is slightly below what a simple conversion from a 51c West price might suggest.

San Antonio Needs a Spur

– San Antonio’s championship odds led all listed markets in last twenty-four hour activity at 46,657 traded, holding 9c to 11c. That is a lot of turnover for a low-priced outcome, and it coincided with San Antonio’s Western Conference title odds sliding from 12c to 10c at the close (down 16.67%). Traders are active, but not necessarily bullish.

Porter Jr. Ready for Takeoff

– Michael Porter Jr. trade market (traded by Brooklyn before Feb. six) is a classic “uncertainty” board: 71c bid, 91c ask with 6,766 traded in the last twenty-four hours. Heavy volume plus a twenty-cent spread usually means participants disagree on the true probability, and the market maker is not eager to narrow it.

West Coast Playoff Predictions

– Playoff qualification markets are liquid but choppy: Los Angeles Lakers playoff qualification odds traded 84 in the last twenty-four hours and Golden State’s traded 121, but both drifted lower on the day (Lakers from 91c to 88c close, Warriors from 83c to 81c close). Phoenix went the other direction with 81 traded in the last twenty-four hours and an eight-cent up close.

Notable markets worth watching

Confusion in Detroit

– Detroit’s Eastern Conference one seed market is mispriced on liquidity, not direction: the bid-ask is 50c to 98c, an extreme spread for a headline outcome. With only one contract traded in the last twenty-four hours, this is a market where a small order can move the screen price, so any “move” here should be treated cautiously.

DPOY Odds

– Chet Holmgren Defensive Player of the Year jumped from 42c to a 50c close (up 19.05%) while still showing a relatively wide 43c to 49c market. That combination suggests the move is real, but conviction is not uniform.

SGA Still Doing SGA Things

– Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points per game leader saw a notable repricing, closing at 35c after opening at 27c (up 29.63%) on 4,519 traded in the last twenty-four hours. That is one of the cleaner “volume confirms the move” signals on the board today.

Closing takeaways

– Trade markets drove the day: Anthony Davis and Ja Morant outcomes repriced aggressively, and the volume backed it up.

– Playoff qualification pricing is getting more volatile in the middle class, with Miami and Memphis taking the sharpest hits while Phoenix and Atlanta caught strong bids.

– Watch wide-spread, high-volume boards (Michael Porter Jr. trade, several All-Star markets) for the next leg, because disagreement plus activity is where tomorrow’s biggest moves usually start.