NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Friday, January 16
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
We went 2-0 yesterday, with the Celtics and Mavericks covering and winning outright, pushing our season record to 20-9. The momentum is real, and I’m not letting off the gas.
Six NBA games on the board for Friday, and it’s one of those slates where the schedule spots are screaming louder than the “who’s better?" debates. We’ve got Houston on the back end of a back-to-back (and in a three-games-in-four-days crunch), Indiana on the front end of a back-to-back, and multiple road teams dealing with high-frequency stretches. I’m coming out swinging with two spots where the numbers line up, and the edges are clean.
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Minnesota vs. Houston Matchup
- Arena: Toyota Center
- Location: Houston, TX
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 16, 2026
- Time: 09:30 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets Betting Odds
- Spread: Houston Rockets -4.5 (-112) | Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (-109)
- Moneyline: Houston Rockets -180 | Minnesota Timberwolves +151
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets Kalshi Odds
- Chance: Minnesota Timberwolves 39% | Houston Rockets 61%
THE PICK: Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (3 units)
Houston is walking into the exact kind of spot that I love to fade: zero days rest (played 1-15), back end of a back-to-back, and high frequency (three games in the last four days). And it’s not just “tired legs"; the schedule performance data backs it up: Houston is 7-13 on the second night of back-to-backs since 2025 (35.0% win rate), with an average margin of -0.7. Now stack that with what the market is asking: lay -4.5 with a team that’s 2-8 against the spread in its last ten, while Minnesota is 6-4 against the spread in its last ten and 7-3 straight up. Even with Anthony Edwards (foot) listed out, Minnesota’s situational profile is still strong: they’ve got two days rest (last played January 13), and Houston’s recent form is ugly. They just lost 111-91 to Oklahoma City on 1-15 and failed to cover as a 4.5-point home dog. This is a classic “line says favorite, data says grind" game, and I’ll take the points with the rested side.
New Orleans vs. Indiana Matchup
- Arena: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
- Location: Indianapolis, IN
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 16, 2026
- Time: 07:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Indiana Pacers Betting Odds
- Spread: Indiana Pacers -4.0 (-110) | New Orleans Pelicans +4.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana Pacers -169 | New Orleans Pelicans +141
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Indiana Pacers Kalshi Odds
- Chance: New Orleans Pelicans 40% | Indiana Pacers 61%
THE PICK: Indiana Pacers -4.0 (2 units)
I’m not overthinking this one: New Orleans has been a bad bet lately, and the schedule spot is a problem. The Pelicans are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten, and the schedule context has them in a high-frequency window (three games over the previous four days) plus travel: 713.6 miles from New Orleans to Indianapolis with one day of rest. That’s precisely where their historical performance falls off a cliff: in “three-plus games in four days" spots since 2025, New Orleans is 12-21 (36.36%) with an average margin of -5.21. Indiana isn’t some juggernaut in the last ten straight up (3-7), but they’ve been a covering machine at 6-4 against the spread, and this number is still only -4.0. I’ll also take the market signal from the win probabilities: Kalshi has Indiana at 61% to win, and I’m comfortable laying a short number at home when the opponent’s profile is screaming fatigue and recent spread failure.
The Betting Edge
Three units: Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5
Two units: Indiana Pacers -4.0
That’s the card. I’m attacking the schedule tax in Houston and fading a New Orleans team that’s been bleeding value in compressed spots. Ride with me or fade me – either way, we’re betting with a plan, not vibes.
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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 16.
