NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Monday

Eight games tonight, and the slate has a definite personality: a couple monster spreads (OKC -15.5, BOS -11.5, PHI -11.5, HOU -8.5), a couple tight “coin-flip" numbers (NYK/DET, ATL/TOR), and a whole lot of schedule noise, multiple teams in three games in four days spots, plus two back-end back-to-backs (DET and OKC). That’s where the market gets sloppy: it prices “team quality," but it doesn’t always price how that team gets to the arena.

I went through every matchup, and two games stand out from the pack because the ATS trend data and the schedule context are pointing in the same direction. Let’s get paid.

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Where to Watch Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Raptors

Arena: Scotiabank Arena
Location: Toronto, ON
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 5, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Raptors Betting Odds

Spread: Toronto Raptors -3.0 (-110) | Atlanta Hawks +3.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Toronto Raptors -150 | Atlanta Hawks +125

Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Raptors Kalshi Odds

Chance: Toronto Raptors 57% | Atlanta Hawks 43%

Toronto Raptors -3 (3 units)

This is the cleanest “stack" on the board for me. Start with recent form: Toronto is 6-4 straight-up and 6-4 against the spread over its last ten, while Atlanta is 2-8 SU (and just 4-6 ATS) over the same sample. Now layer in the situational spot: Atlanta is in a high-frequency window again (three games in four days), and the schedule performance data is brutal. Atlanta is 14-22 (38.89%) in those spots, with an average margin of -4.39. Toronto, meanwhile, is on one day’s rest and at home, and we literally just saw this matchup: on January 3, Toronto beat Atlanta 134-117 and covered -5. And if you want the longer lens, the head-to-head is a hammer: over the last ten meetings, Toronto is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS vs. Atlanta. This number is only -3, with the fatigue profile on Atlanta and Toronto’s consistent head-to-head cover edge, I think the market is still pricing this like a toss-up. It’s not.

Where to Watch New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons

Arena: Little Caesars Arena
Location: Detroit, MI
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 5, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET

New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons Betting Odds

Spread: New York Knicks -2.5 (-110) | Detroit Pistons +2.5 (-111)
Moneyline: New York Knicks -138 | Detroit Pistons +116

New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons Kalshi Odds

Chance: New York Knicks 56% | Detroit Pistons 43%

Detroit Pistons +2.5 (2 units)

I’m stepping in front of the Knicks here, and it’s not subtle: New York’s last-ten against the spread profile is a disaster (1-9 ATS), while Detroit is a steadier 5-5 ATS in their last ten. That alone is enough to make me skeptical of laying points with New York. Still, the schedule spot pushes me to the home dog: Detroit is on the back end of a back-to-back (0 days rest), and yes, that’s usually scary, except Detroit’s historical back-to-back back-end performance is actually solid: 11-10 (52.38%) with an average margin of +1.38. Meanwhile, the Knicks are in a high-frequency window (three games in four days), and while New York’s historical record in those spots is decent (16-12, +3.54 avg margin), that doesn’t erase what we’re seeing right now: they’re not covering numbers. Add in the market context: NYK is only -2.5 with a 56% Kalshi win probability, that’s not some dominant “should be -6" profile. In a game priced this tight, I’ll take the team that’s been more reliable against the number and has shown it can survive the back-to-back spot.