NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Saturday, January 10
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Six games on the board tonight, and the slate has a particular personality: two front-end back-to-backs (Minnesota, Miami), one brutal back-end travel spot (Los Angeles Clippers), and a team dragging real injury baggage (Dallas in a nasty recent against-the-spread funk). That’s the kind of menu where I’m not trying to be cute – I’m trying to be right.
I ran every matchup, and two spreads jump off the page because the schedule math, recent against-the-spread form, and injury context all point in the same direction. Let’s get paid.
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SATURDAY’S NBA BEST BETS
Indiana Pacers +7.5 (3 units)
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Matchup
- Arena: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
- Location: Indianapolis, IN
- Date: January 10, 2026
- Time: 07:00 PM ET
Heat vs. Pacers Betting Odds
- Spread: Miami Heat -7.5 (-105) | Indiana Pacers +7.5 (-114)
- Moneyline: Miami Heat -283 | Indiana Pacers +229
Heat vs. Pacers Kalshi Odds
- Chance: Miami Heat 71% | Indiana Pacers 28%
I’m taking the points with Indiana because the number is doing too much heavy lifting for a Miami team in a schedule spot they’ve consistently failed in. The Heat are on the front end of a back-to-back, and since the 2025 season, they’re just 7-15 straight up in that exact context (31.82% win rate) with an average margin of -0.45 – basically, they play coin-flip games when the calendar tightens. Now layer in the injury list: Miami is without Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Terry Rozier, while Indiana is banged up too (including Bennedict Mathurin OUT), but the Pacers have quietly been a “hang around” team at the window – 5-5 against the spread in their last ten, even while going 1-9 straight up. That’s the profile of a team that loses but doesn’t always get buried, and +7.5 is a big ask in a matchup that’s been a track meet historically: these teams have gone 9-1 to the over in the last ten head-to-head meetings with 243.5 average total points, which is another way of saying variance is high and backdoor covers are live. The market (and Kalshi at 71% Miami) is pricing a comfortable Heat win; I’m pricing a game that stays within two possessions more often than not. Please give me the points.
Chicago Bulls -2.5 (2 units)
Dallas Mavericks @ Chicago Bulls Matchup
- Arena: United Center
- Location: Chicago, IL
- Date: January 10, 2026
- Time: 08:00 PM ET
Mavericks vs. Bulls Betting Odds
- Spread: Chicago Bulls -2.5 (-110) | Dallas Mavericks +2.5 (-111)
- Moneyline: Chicago Bulls -145 | Dallas Mavericks +122
Mavericks vs. Bulls Kalshi Odds
- Chance: Dallas Mavericks 43% | Chicago Bulls 56%
This is a spot where I’m comfortable laying a short number with Chicago because Dallas has been a money-burner lately, and the situational setup doesn’t help. The Mavericks are 2-7-1 against the spread in their last ten with a brutal 22.2% cover rate, and even when they win, they’ve been letting teams hang around (like the January 6 win at Sacramento, where Dallas won 100-98 but still didn’t cover as a five-point favorite). Tonight they’re also finishing a three-game road trip (game three of three) and the travel is real: 1255.3 miles from the Delta Center to the United Center on one day of rest. Chicago isn’t some against the spread wagon (they’re 5-5 against the spread last ten), but they’re at home, laying a manageable number, and Dallas is the team showing us the clearest pattern: they’re not covering. If this is going to be a grind – and both teams are 7-3 to the under in their last ten – I want the side that doesn’t have to win by margin to win the game. -2.5 is a “win the game” tax, and I’m paying it.
The Betting Edge
Three units: Indiana Pacers +7.5
Two units: Chicago Bulls -2.5
I’m not trying to win every argument on the internet – I’m trying to win the number. Ride with me, or fade me, but don’t sit in the middle and complain when the closing line value shows up on your screen.
