NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Sunday, January 11

Ten games on the board today, and the slate has a very specific personality: a couple of massive spreads (Oklahoma City and Phoenix laying double digits), a few “who’s actually playing?” injury situations (Philadelphia-Toronto, New Orleans-Orlando), and some schedule landmines where the market still hangs a clean number like nothing’s happening (hello, Brooklyn’s front-end back-to-back).

I went through every matchup, and most of them are either priced correctly or too dependent on late availability to fire big. But two games give me the kind of multi-angle alignment I’m always hunting: one is a straight-up fade of a team that can’t cover and can’t win on the road, and the other is a schedule-and-injury squeeze where the favorite is in the right spot.

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NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Sunday, January 11

New Orleans Pelicans @ Orlando Magic

Pelicans vs. Magic Matchup

• Arena: Kia Center
• Location: Orlando, FL
• Date: January 11, 2026
• Time: 03:00 PM ET

Pelicans vs. Magic Betting Odds

• Spread: Orlando Magic -6.5 (-110) | New Orleans Pelicans +6.5 (-111)
• Moneyline: Orlando Magic -263 | New Orleans Pelicans +215
• Total: 234.5 Over (-115) | Under (-105)

Pelicans vs. Magic Kalshi Odds

• Chance: New Orleans Pelicans 30% | Orlando Magic 70%

THE PICK

Orlando Magic -6.5 (3 units)

THE CASE

This is my favorite kind of bet: ugly team, ugly trend, ugly travel spot, and the number still isn’t high enough. New Orleans is 1-9 in their last ten with a brutal 2-8 record against the spread, while Orlando is only 3-7 against the spread in their last ten – but that’s exactly why we’re getting a playable number instead of a tax. The schedule context pushes me over the edge: Orlando is at home with zero travel and in game two of a three-game home stand, while New Orleans is in game three of a three-game road trip and had to travel 758.2 miles from Capital One Arena to the Kia Center on one day of rest. Historically, New Orleans has been a mess in these longer road pockets: in away stands of three-plus games, they’re winning just 23.33% (7-23 across nine stands). Add the head-to-head hammer – Orlando is 8-2 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in the last ten meetings – and I’m comfortable laying it. The Pelicans also come in missing Saddiq Bey, Jose Alvarado, Herbert Jones, and Dejounte Murray (all out), and I’m not paying a premium to back a short-handed team that’s been cashing tickets for the other side all season.

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Brooklyn Nets @ Memphis Grizzlies

Nets vs. Grizzlies Matchup

• Arena: FedExForum
• Location: Memphis, TN
• Date: January 11, 2026
• Time: 03:30 PM ET

Nets vs. Grizzlies Betting Odds

• Spread: Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 (-111) | Brooklyn Nets +7.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Memphis Grizzlies -276 | Brooklyn Nets +224
• Total: 220.5 Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Nets vs. Grizzlies Kalshi Odds

• Chance: Brooklyn Nets 30% | Brooklyn Nets 70%

THE PICK

Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 (2 units)

THE CASE

I don’t love laying this many points with a Memphis team that’s 4-5-1 against the spread in their last ten, but the spot is too clean to ignore. Brooklyn is on the front end of a back-to-back, and their historical performance in that exact situation is awful: 6-15 straight up (28.57%) with an average margin of -7.9, scoring 107.29 points per game while allowing 115.19. That’s basically the spread sitting right there in the data. The travel angle stacks on top: Brooklyn had to go 954.6 miles from Barclays Center to FedExForum on one day of rest, while Memphis stays home with zero travel and closes out game four of a four-game home stand. Yes, Memphis is missing Ja Morant (out) plus Brandon Clarke, Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr., Zach Edey, and John Konchar – but Brooklyn’s injury list is no picnic either, and the one that matters most for a big number is Michael Porter Jr. listed out for rest. I’m betting Memphis to win the possession game at home and let the schedule do the dirty work late, because Brooklyn’s front-end back-to-back profile says they fade when the game gets uncomfortable.

The Betting Edge

Picks: Orlando Magic -6.5 (three units), Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 (two units). I’m laying points twice, and I’m doing it because the slate gave us two spots where the opponent’s profile is screaming “fade me” – one via long-term road stand failure (New Orleans), the other via a documented front-end back-to-back faceplant (Brooklyn).

Attack the Paint with SportsGrid’s Free NBA Picks and Player Props Markets. Ride with me or fade me – either way, we’re not guessing. We’re hunting numbers the market didn’t respect enough.