NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Thursday, January 15
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Nine NBA games on the board for January 15, and the slate has a particular vibe: a couple of travel grinders, a couple of injury landmines, and one absolutely brutal back-to-back spot that the market is still trying to price like it’s a normal Thursday. That’s where we eat.
Yesterday we split, going 1-1, winning our Nuggets pick but losing our Nets one. We’re 18-9 this month (66.6%), and I’m not here to get cute when the data is lining up this clean.
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Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks Matchup
- Arena: American Airlines Center
- Location: Dallas, TX
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 15, 2026
- Time: 08:30 PM ET
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds
- Spread: Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (-111) | Utah Jazz 2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas Mavericks -143 | Utah Jazz +119
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Kalshi Odds
- Chance: Utah Jazz 43% | Dallas Mavericks 55%
THE PICK: Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (3 units)
Dallas is a gross team to back right now on paper, 3-7 last ten and a brutal 2-6-1 against the spread in that span, but this is a schedule and availability bet, not a vibes bet. Utah is walking into the back end of a back-to-back with zero days rest and 803.0 miles of travel, and the Jazz profile in this exact fatigue bucket is ugly: on the second night of back-to-backs since 2025, Utah is 8-14 with a -7.05 average margin, and in “three games in four days" spots they’re 5-23 with a -12.25 average margin. That’s the kind of profile that turns a close spread into a fourth-quarter fade. Meanwhile, Dallas is also on zero days rest, but their back-to-back performance is at least functional: 12-8 on the back end since 2025, and the analysis literally calls those games “typically close" (117.15 scored vs 117.8 allowed). Add in the injury context pushing me away from Utah’s ceiling, Walker Kessler (out), Georges Niang (out), and Lauri Markkanen (day-to-day), and I’m comfortable laying a short number at home. This line is asking Dallas to win by a bucket; Utah’s fatigue profile says that bucket shows up late.
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Matchup
- Arena: Kaseya Center
- Location: Miami, FL
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 15, 2026
- Time: 07:30 PM ET
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds
- Spread: Boston Celtics -2.5 (-108) | Miami Heat 2.5 (-113)
- Moneyline: Boston Celtics -140 | Miami Heat +117
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Kalshi Odds
- Chance: Boston Celtics 57% | Miami Heat 43%
THE PICK: Boston Celtics -2.5 (2 units)
I’m not overthinking this one: the matchup history is a hammer, and the schedule edge is real. Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, Boston is 8-2 straight up and 8-2 against the spread – Miami has covered two of those ten. Now layer in rest: Boston is on two days rest (last played January 12) while Miami is on one day rest (played January 13). And if you want the situational “travel stand" angle (sorry, road trip angle), Boston has been elite in longer away stretches: in away stands of four-plus games since 2025, the Celtics are 19-4 (82.61%). Miami’s recent form is solid (7-3 ATS last ten), but the injury report is noisy: Tyler Herro (day-to-day), Davion Mitchell (day-to-day), Nikola Jovic (day-to-day), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (day-to-day), with Terry Rozier (out). I’m laying the short number with the side that’s owned this series and is built to travel in this dataset.
The Betting Edge
- 3 units: Dallas Mavericks -2.5
- 2 units: Boston Celtics -2.5
We’re not trying to win a beauty contest tonight; we’re trying to cash tickets. Dallas is a fatigue-and-travel fade of Utah, and Boston is a historical matchup edge with a rest advantage baked in. Ride with me or fade me, but don’t say the slate didn’t give us two clean lanes.
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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 15.
