NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Thursday, January 8
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Four games on the board tonight, and the slate has a particular personality: three home teams are on the back end of a back-to-back (Charlotte, Chicago, Utah), and two of them are also in three games in four days territory. That’s the kind of schedule compression that turns “home-court advantage” into “home-court survival.”
I went through every matchup, and two spots stand out from the pack because the number, the schedule, and the recent against-the-spread profile all point in the same direction. Let’s get paid.
Best Bet (3 units)
Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Hornets Matchup
Arena: Spectrum Center
Location: Charlotte, NC
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Date: January 8, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Pacers vs. Hornets Betting Odds
Spread: Charlotte Hornets -3.5 (-113) | Indiana Pacers +3.5 (-107)
Moneyline: Charlotte Hornets -166 | Indiana Pacers +139
Pacers vs. Hornets Kalshi Odds
Chance: Indiana Pacers 38% | Charlotte Hornets 61%
THE PICK: Indiana Pacers +3.5 (3 units)
I’m taking the points with Indiana because the spot is brutal for Charlotte, and the market is still pricing them like a standard home favorite. The Hornets are on zero days rest (played January 7), and it’s not just a back-to-back – it’s three games in four days, a schedule bucket where Charlotte has been a mess historically: 10-23 with a -7.27 average margin in those high-frequency spots. That’s the fatigue angle, and it’s real. Meanwhile, Indiana comes in with one day of rest and a manageable 428.0 miles of travel. Now layer in the form: Indiana is 0-10 straight up in their last ten (gross), but they’ve at least been competitive enough to cover four of ten; Charlotte is 8-2 against the spread in their last ten, which is precisely why we’re getting a tax here. The number is asking Charlotte to win by margin on tired legs, and their own back-to-back profile says that’s not their life: 9-13 on back-end back-to-backs with a -2.68 average margin. Give me the rested dog in a game that profiles as a grinder, not a runway.
Strong Play (2 units)
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls Matchup
Arena: United Center
Location: Chicago, IL
Where to Watch: NBA TV
Date: January 8, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Heat vs. Bulls Betting Odds
Spread: Miami Heat -7.5 (-107) | Chicago Bulls +7.5 (-114)
Moneyline: Miami Heat -272 | Chicago Bulls +221
THE PICK: Miami Heat -7.5 (2 units)
This is a schedule-and-form fade of Chicago, and I’m not overthinking it. The Bulls are on the back end of a back-to-back with zero days rest and travel (they went 238.9 miles from Detroit to Chicago), and it’s also three games in four days. That’s the exact combo that quietly kills teams at the window, and Chicago’s contextual performance backs it up: on back-end back-to-backs, they’re 7-12 with a -4.53 average margin, and in the three-in-four-days bucket, they’re 11-15. Now look at what they’ve actually been lately: Chicago is 5-5 straight up, and 5-5 against the spread in their last ten, but the recent results are ugly – they just lost at Detroit 108-93 on January 7, and they’ve dropped games by 14 at Boston and 13 at home to Charlotte in this same stretch. Miami’s last ten is a clean 6-4 against the spread, and while they just got smoked at Minnesota 122-94 on January 6, that’s precisely why I like them here: they’ve got one day of rest and a chance to take it out on a tired opponent. If this number were nine, I’d hesitate. At -7.5, I’m betting Miami’s legs and defense show up while Chicago’s offense sputters again.
The Betting Edge
- Indiana Pacers +3.5 (3 units)
- Miami Heat -7.5 (2 units)
Ride with me or fade me – either way, we’re not guessing tonight. We’re attacking schedule spots the market keeps pricing like they don’t matter.
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