NBA Best Bets: Top 2 Betting Picks for Wednesday, January 7

Big slate energy tonight – 12 games and a whole lot of inflated numbers. We’ve got multiple double-digit favorites (Detroit -10.5, Philly -12.5, OKC -17.5, Boston -9.5, Atlanta -9.5). The schedule spots are loud: Washington is on the back end of a back-to-back with 2,085 miles of travel, Denver is finishing Game 7 of a seven-game road stand after flying 2,373 miles, and Charlotte/Chicago are both sitting on the front end of back-to-backs. That’s the kind of slate where you don’t need to bet everything – you need to bet the right things.

I went through every matchup in the data, and two spots jump out where the schedule and trend profile cleanly align with the number.

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Lock (3 Units)

Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers Matchup

Arena: Xfinity Mobile Arena

Location: Las Vegas, NV

Date: January 7, 2026

Time: 7:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Odds

Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -12.5 (-109) | Washington Wizards +12.5 (-112)

Moneyline: Philadelphia 76ers -590 | Washington Wizards +433

Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers Kalshi Odds

Chance: Washington Wizards 17% | Philadelphia 76ers 82%

The Pick

76ers -12.5 (3 units)

This is the kind of number I want to lay because the spot is brutal for Washington, and the data backs it up. Start with the schedule hammer: Washington is on the back end of a back-to-back, and the long-term performance in that exact context is a disaster – 1-19 straight up in 20 back-end back-to-backs since 2025 with an average margin of -17.85. It gets worse: tonight also qualifies as a high-frequency spot (three games in four days), and Washington in those windows is 4-29 SU (12.12%) with an average margin of -15.73. Add in the travel: they’re coming 2,085.4 miles into this neutral-site “home” for Philly, while the Sixers have 0 miles of travel and are not on a back-to-back. And if you want the matchup history to seal it, it’s there: over the last ten head-to-heads, Philadelphia is 9-1 SU and 7-3 against the spread, including a 121-102 Sixers win in the most recent meeting in Philly, where they covered a considerable number (-13.5). Washington can be feisty in random spots (they’re 6-4 ATS over their last ten), but this is the exact scheduling profile where they get run off the floor – and Philly doesn’t need style points, just a professional 48. I think this line is justified, and I’m still laying it.

Best of the Rest (2 Units)

Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics Matchup

Arena: TD Garden

Location: Boston, MA

Date: January 7, 2026

Time: 7:30 PM ET

Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics Betting Odds

Spread: Boston Celtics -9.5 (-110) | Denver Nuggets +9.5 (-111)

Moneyline: Boston Celtics -388 | Denver Nuggets +305

Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics Kalshi Odds

Chance: Denver Nuggets 24% | Boston Celtics 76%

THE PICK

Celtics -9.5 (2 units)

I’m not overthinking this: Boston is in one of those “keep it simple” spots where the opponent’s schedule screams fatigue and the Celtics’ recent form says they’ll punish it. Boston is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS over their last ten, and they just handled Chicago 115-101 as a -10.5 favorite (covering) two nights ago. Denver, meanwhile, is walking into the Garden at the end of a grind: Game 7 of a seven-game road stand, three games in four days, and a 2,373.2-mile flight from their last stop (Xfinity Mobile Arena) to Boston. That’s not “narrative,” that’s literally the schedule summary. Yes, Denver has actually been solid in high-frequency spots historically (19-11 SU, +3.4 avg margin in 3-in-4 since 2025), but that’s precisely why I’m comfortable laying it here: the market is pricing Denver like a team that can keep punching – and Boston right now is covering numbers anyway. Also worth noting: head-to-head leans Boston too (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS over the last ten). If this is tight late, I’ll live with it – but the most likely script is Boston’s depth and current form separating in the second half against a team finishing a long trip.

The Betting Edge

76ers -12.5 (3 units)

Celtics -9.5 (2 units)

Two favorites, two spots where the schedule data is doing most of the handicapping for us – and I’m fine being the guy laying points when the opponent profile is screaming “dead legs.” Ride with me or fade me, but don’t sit in the middle and complain about the result.

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