NBA Coach of the Year Odds: Why Joe Mazzulla Is Fading vs. Bickerstaff
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The market just delivered a brutal verdict on the Boston Celtics Joe Mazzulla’s Coach of the Year candidacy, and I’m here to tell you why this nine-cent plunge from 29 to 20 cents represents one of the sharpest corrections we’ve seen in any major NBA futures market this season. At 20 cents, we’re looking at a 20 percent implied probability for a coach whose team sits second in the Eastern Conference with a 25-15 record. The question isn’t whether this drop was justified – it’s whether the market has finally caught up to reality or overshot the mark.
Detroit’s Dominance Reshapes the Race
- Last year’s runner-up JB Bickerstaff (+150) currently possesses the shortest odds to be named 2026 NBA Coach of the Year for his work with the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons. The Pistons are sitting at 29-10, with a staggering 74.4 percent win rate that has them 4.5 games ahead of Boston in the standings. He helped guide them to 44 wins and a playoff berth, one year after they won 14 games. Detroit entered the year with a win total of 46.5, which is ideal, as this award is typically given to the team that claimed a top seed after entering the year with a win total in the 40s.
- This is precisely the type of narrative that wins Coach of the Year awards. Bickerstaff took a franchise that won 14 games two seasons ago, guided them to 44 wins and a playoff berth last year, and now has them leading the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, Mazzulla is trying to keep a championship-caliber roster competitive without their best player. One story sells itself to voters; the other requires explanation.
- The market dynamics here are crystal clear. The average playoff seed for a COY winner over the last 15 years is 1.7. It’s not enough to exceed expectations; a team must be exceptional to earn recognition from voters. Boston’s current trajectory has them as a solid playoff team, but they’re not exceptional without Jayson Tatum.
Recent Struggles Expose the Cracks
- Boston’s recent performance tells the story of a team hitting its ceiling without its superstar.
- They’re 2-3 in their last five games and 6-4 over their last ten, including losses to teams they should have handled. The game logs show concerning patterns: they lost to San Antonio 95-100 at home, dropped a game to Indiana 96-98, and needed an overtime-level effort to beat Miami on the road.
- But here’s what really caught my attention: In a 45-second postgame interview, Mazzulla mentioned “illegal screen" six times without saying another word after their loss to Indiana. This wasn’t just frustration – it was a coach reaching his breaking point with officiating because his team lacks the margin for error they had with Tatum. The Celtics rank dead last in the NBA in free-throw attempts (18.7 per game) this season. But over the four-game stretch, the Celtics averaged only 12.8 free-throw attempts, nearly 6 fewer than their season average.
The Value Assessment
I’m fading Mazzulla at 20 cents. The value sits on the under, and I expect these odds to drift even lower as Detroit continues to separate itself atop the East and Boston settles into its role as a solid but unspectacular playoff team. Sometimes the market takes months to price in obvious realities, but when it finally does, the correction can be swift and merciless.
