NBA Kalshi Update February 5: NBA Trade Deadline, Prediction Market Movers

The 2026 NBA Trade Deadline just closed, and the prediction markets are still digesting the aftermath. With Anthony Davis landing in Washington, James Harden joining Cleveland, and Jaren Jackson Jr. heading to Utah, the futures boards are repricing team outlooks across the league.

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Top Kalshi NBA Movers That Mattered

- Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team – “Stays/Retires" jumped from 38c to 77c (102.63% increase). Milwaukee held firm at the deadline, and the market now prices Giannis staying put as the heavy favorite. It’s also the biggest liquidity magnet on the board, with 615,668 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

- Ja Morant’s next team – “Stays with Memphis or Retires" fell from 61c to 26c (-57.38%). At the same time, “Will Ja Morant be traded by Memphis" moved from 43c to 66c (53.49% increase). Memphis just shipped out Jaren Jackson Jr. for a haul of picks – are they setting up for a full rebuild?

- Chicago playoff qualification dropped from 21c to 13c (-38.1%). The Bulls were the busiest team at the deadline, moving Coby White, Mike Conley Jr., Nikola Vucevic, and acquiring Jaden Ivey in a rebuild-focused flurry. The market is pricing in a lost season.

- Cleveland got a massive boost from landing James Harden. Combined with their earlier additions of Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis, the Cavaliers are all-in on a championship run.

- Boston championship odds climbed from 5c to 7c (40.0% increase). Adding Nikola Vucevic gives the Celtics frontcourt depth they lacked. Boston’s Eastern Conference title price also rose from 16c to 20c (25.0% increase).

- Orlando Eastern Conference title slid from 7c to 4c (-42.86%). The Magic stood pat while rivals got stronger.

- Nikola Jokic MVP moved from 15c to 21c (40.0% increase) on heavy flow, with 72,532 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

- Naz Reid Sixth Man of the Year spiked from 26c to 47c (80.77% increase). Minnesota added Ayo Dosunmu at the deadline, but Reid remains the frontrunner for this award.

Kalshi NBA Volume And Order Book Highlights

- Oklahoma City championship odds led the futures board in activity with 13,100 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours. The Thunder added Jared McCain from Philadelphia – a move that adds backcourt scoring punch. The order book is thick on both sides, including 43,583 contracts bid at 38c on “yes."

- Denver championship odds also printed a large volume, with 27,913 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours, even as the price fell from 16c to 15c (-6.25%).

- San Antonio championship odds traded 28,971 contracts in the last twenty-four hours. The “no" side is stacked, including 54,191 contracts bid at 90c.

- Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team – “Stays/Retires" was the trade-deadline centerpiece with 615,668 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours and a relatively tight one-cent spread (88 bid / 89 ask).

- Ja Morant’s next team markets showed real uncertainty. “Stays with Memphis or Retires" carried a fourteen-cent spread (44 bid / 58 ask). With Memphis cashing out on Jackson Jr., the Morant watch is officially on.

- Joel Embiid’s All-Star selection got messy fast. It dropped from 48c to 30c (-37.5%) and still shows a sixty-one-cent spread (26 bid / 87 ask).

Kalshi NBA Notable Markets Worth Watching

- Oklahoma City’s Western Conference title is priced at 53c, while Oklahoma City’s championship is 40c. The McCain addition could push both numbers higher.

- Denver playoff qualification is still priced at 96c close, despite Denver’s Western Conference title falling from 20c to 17c (-15.0%).

- Boston got a clean “conference-to-title" lift. Eastern Conference title closed at 20c, while the championship closed at 7c. The Vucevic trade was the catalyst.

- Utah is an interesting watch after acquiring Jaren Jackson Jr. The Jazz are building something, though championship odds remain long.

- Cade Cunningham’s MVP is still only 4c, but it saw massive attention with 148,605 contracts traded in the last twenty-four hours.

Kalshi NBA Market Edge

- The deadline dust is settling, but team futures are still adjusting. Cleveland, Boston, and Oklahoma City all look stronger. Chicago and Memphis are clearly pivoting to rebuilds.

- Watch the Memphis markets closely. The Ja Morant trade probability just spiked to 66c. If Memphis keeps selling, that number is going higher.

- The MVP market is still active at the top. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is 66c close, but Nikola Jokic just made a significant jump to 21c close.