NBA Kalshi Update February 3: James Harden & Giannis Trade Markets Surge

The trade board is doing that thing again, where it stops being a sideshow and becomes the main event. James Harden trade odds have gone vertical, and the Giannis Antetokounmpo next-team market is now a two-sided tug-of-war with massive volume behind it.

Dunk on the Prediction Markets with SportsGrid’s Free NBA Picks and Player Props Markets.

Top Kalshi NBA Movers That Mattered

James Harden trade odds surged from 11c to 73c (563.64% jump) ahead of the February 6 deadline. Trading was heavy too, with 34,052 contracts in 24-hour volume.

Benedict Mathurin trade odds spiked from 9c to 44c (388.89% jump). The market is suddenly treating a deal as live.

Mitch Johnson Coach of the Year odds doubled from 5c to 10c (100.0% jump), but on just four contracts in 24-hour volume. That move can unwind fast.

Cleveland‘s championship odds jumped from 4c to 7c (75.0% jump). The market also printed an eye-popping 210,314 contracts in 24-hour volume.

Victor Wembanyama Defensive Player of the Year odds rose from 40c to 51c (27.5% jump). There’s real size behind it with 927 contracts in 24-hour volume and a massive overall market footprint.

Los Angeles Lakers Western Conference title odds dropped from 8c to 5c (-37.5%). That is a meaningful haircut in a short window.

Portland‘s playoff qualification odds collapsed from 27c to 18c (-33.33%). That is one of the sharpest playoff-board repricings today.

Naz Reid’s Sixth Man of the Year odds fell from 56c to 29c (-48.21%). That is a full market reset.

Rudy Gobert Defensive Player of the Year odds dropped from 12c to 8c (-33.33%) with 6,022 contracts in 24-hour volume. That is not a quiet move.

Kawhi Leonard’s All-Star selection odds cratered from 91c to 36c (-60.44%). Alperen Sengun also got hit, down from 94c to 47c (-50.0%). Joel Embiid slid from 72c to 45c (-37.5%).

Kalshi NBA Volume And Order Book Highlights

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next-team market is the volume king. “Stays with Milwaukee or Retires" traded 313,921 contracts in twenty-four hours, while “Miami" traded 309,768. That is a true two-way fight.

Cleveland‘s championship market printing 210,314 contracts in twenty-four hours is a standout. That is a rare volume for a low-priced title ticket.

Los Angeles Clippers playoff qualification is quietly one of the most active markets, with 6,004 contracts in twenty-four hours.

The James Harden trade market has a wide 9-cent yes spread (77c bid / 86c ask) even after the surge. Traders still disagree on the actual number.

Giannis trade odds are relatively tight at 46c bid / 47c ask, with 29,999 contracts in twenty-four hours. That is high-conviction liquidity.

Kalshi NBA Notable Markets Worth Watching

Giannis Antetokounmpo is priced differently across related markets. His trade odds are 47c, but his “stays with Milwaukee or retires" next-team outcome is 53c. That gap is worth monitoring until February 6.

Oklahoma City‘s Western Conference title odds are 52c, while Oklahoma City’s championship odds sit at 39c. Both markets are liquid, with 1,547 and 6,699 contracts in twenty-four hours, respectively.

Nikola Jokic’s MVP odds are now 15c after a -16.67% move. Meanwhile, Jokic is still 66c to lead the league in assists per game. Those narratives are not moving together today.