Best NBA Bets Feb. 4: Trends, Predictions & Picks for Tonight

Six games hit the board tonight, and the theme is simple: availability is swinging spreads, and the market is still trying to price it in cleanly. We’ve got three teams on the second night of a back-to-back (Denver, New York, Houston). We also have one game where the injury report effectively serves as the handicap (Minnesota–Toronto). I’m not forcing action in every matchup, but I am pressing the two spots where the number and the context align.

Attack the Paint with SportsGrid’s Free NBA Picks and Player Props Markets.

Best Bet: Houston Rockets -4.5 (3 units)

Where to Watch the Houston Rockets vs. Boston Celtics Tonight

• Arena: Toyota Center
• Location: Houston, TX
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: February 4, 2026
• Time: 08:00 PM ET

NBA Betting Odds Today: Rockets vs. Celtics Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities

Odds as of February 04, 2026, at 11:45 AM ET

Houston is the side I want because this is a profile game, not a name game. The Rockets are fourth in points allowed (110.0) and fourth in defensive rating (112.8). They also clean the glass like a bully, sitting first in rebounds (49.4) and first in rebounds allowed (39.3). That’s how you keep a spread in range even when the offense isn’t perfect.

Now layer in the spot. Houston is on a back-to-back, and I’m still fine laying it because Boston’s recent form isn’t scaring me off the number. The Celtics are 7-3 straight up in their last ten and 6-4 against the spread in that span. Respect. But Houston’s defensive ceiling is higher, and the Rockets’ rebounding edge is the kind of thing that shows up every night.

The injury report is relevant here as well, and it points in the same direction. Kevin Durant (left ankle sprain) is probable. Houston also has Fred VanVleet (right knee) out and Steven Adams (left ankle) out. I’m still backing the Rockets because the foundation is defense and rebounding, and that’s precisely where they’ve been elite.

Expert Pick: Toronto Raptors +2.5 (2 units)

Where to Watch the Toronto Raptors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Tonight

• Arena: Scotiabank Arena
• Location: Toronto, ON
• Where to Watch:
• Date: February 4, 2026
• Time: 07:30 PM ET

NBA Betting Odds Today: Raptors vs. Timberwolves Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities

Odds as of February 04, 2026, at 11:45 AM ET

This is me betting the number and the uncertainty. Minnesota is the cleaner team on paper, sure. They’re fourth in points per game (119.5) and seventh in defensive rating (113.2). Toronto’s defense is real, too, at sixth in defensive rating (113.1), and that’s the starting point for why I’m willing to take points at home.

Here’s the swing factor: Minnesota’s injury report is heavy at the top. Anthony Edwards (left elbow soreness) is questionable. Julius Randle (left thumb soreness) is questionable. Mike Conley is out. That’s a lot of creation and structure potentially missing or compromised, and I’m not laying points on the road into that.

Toronto has its own issue, and it’s not small. Jakob Poeltl (back) is out. That’s why this is two units, not three. But with both teams sitting on two days of rest, I’ll take the home dog in a game where Minnesota’s availability could flip the entire script.

The SportsGrid Betting Edge

• Best Bet (3 units): Houston Rockets -4.5
• Expert Pick (2 units): Toronto Raptors +2.5

I looked at every game, and these are the two I’m willing to swing on. If you’re riding, ride with conviction. If you’re fading, at least fade the right games. Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 4.