Portland Trail Blazers Win Total Crashes 10 Cents, Time to Buy the Dip!
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
The Portland Trail Blazers’ over 35 wins market just took a massive hit, dropping from 92 cents to 82 cents in 24 hours. That’s a 10-cent crater that screams panic selling. But when I dig into the numbers, this looks like classic market overreaction to short-term noise.
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The Math Still Works
The Trail Blazers sit at 23-28 through 51 games. They need 12 more wins in 31 remaining games to hit 35 total wins. That’s an 87 winning percentage over the final stretch – hardly an impossible ask for a team that’s been competitive all season.
– Current pace: Portland is winning at a .451 clip (23-28 record).
– Required pace: Need .387 winning percentage (12 wins in 31 games) to reach 35 wins.
– The gap: They can afford to play.064 is worse than their season average and still cashes over 35.
Why The Market Panicked
I get why traders are bailing. Portland just completed a brutal five-game losing streak, during which 13.2 points per game outscored them. The recent box scores indicated defensive breakdowns and inconsistent offense.
– Last five games: 0-5 record, allowing 120.8 points per game while scoring just 107.6.
– Blowout losses: Got demolished by New York 97-127 and Cleveland 111-130.
– Close calls: Lost heartbreakers to Washington (111-115) and Boston (94-102).
The injury report adds to the pessimism. Deni Avdija (back) is day-to-day, while Scoot Henderson (hamstring), Kris Murray (back), and Matisse Thybulle (thumb/knee) remain out. That’s significant depth missing from an already thin roster.
The Case For Value at 82 Cents
Here’s what the market is missing. Portland’s underlying talent level suggests they’re better than this recent slide indicates.
– Deni Avdija breakout: Leading scorer at 25.5 points per game on efficient 67/.356 shooting splits.
– Shaedon Sharpe development: Second option averaging 21.8 points with improved three-point shooting (.341).
– Jerami Grant veteran presence: When healthy, provides 18.7 points per game as a reliable third scorer.
– Donovan Clingan emergence: Rookie center averaging 11.2 points and 11.2 rebounds with rim protection.
The 20-game sample (11-9 record) shows Portland’s true level when healthy. That 50 winning percentage over 31 games would deliver 17 wins – easily clearing the 12 needed.
Schedule Reality Check
Portland ranks 10th in the Western Conference, 17 games behind Oklahoma City. They’re not making the playoffs, which actually helps the over-35 case. No reason to shut down players or tank when you’re fighting for respectability.
– Conference position: Sitting in no-man’s land between playoff contention and lottery positioning.
– Motivation factor: Young core has every incentive to build momentum heading into next season.
– Development focus: Organization wants to see what they have in Sharpe, Clingan, and other young pieces.
The SportsGrid Betting Edge
At 82 cents, this market is pricing Portland to win just 10.7 of its final 31 games. That’s a .345 winning percentage – worse than their current pace despite getting healthier players back.
The order book shows heavy selling pressure, with significant volume at lower prices. When I see 20,780 contracts bid at just 1 cent, that tells me panic has set in. Smart money should be stepping in here.
I’m backing Portland to win, at current prices. The recent losing streak has led to an overreaction that doesn’t reflect the underlying talent or mathematical requirements. Give me the team that needs to play just .387 ball over a month when they’ve shown .550 capability when healthy.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 5.
