Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target on Tuesday, January 6
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Six games on the board tonight, and the prop menu is deep enough to find real pricing mistakes if you’re willing to shop. After scanning every matchup’s hit-rate profile and comparing consensus to best available numbers, the strongest edges show up in a few “role stability" spots (assists/rebounds) and one elite form streak that books still haven’t fully caught up to.
Below are the best four player props for Tuesday’s slate – ranked by conviction and built around hit rates + price.
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NBA Player Props for Tuesday, January 6
Andrew Nembhard Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Matchup
- Arena: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
- Location: Indianapolis, IN
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 6, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
Line & Consensus Odds: 28.5 (-120)
Andrew Nembhard’s PRA has been one of the cleanest “form + role" profiles on the slate: an 80% hit rate over the last five and a 70% rate over the previous 10, while still priced near a coin flip. Even with a modest 53.57% season hit rate, the recent usage/production band is clearly higher than the market’s baseline. At -120, this is still a playable number given the L10 consistency – and it’s the best blend of volume + stability in this game’s prop set.
Bub Carrington Over 3.5 Rebounds (-123)
Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards Matchup
- Arena: Capital One Arena
- Location: Washington, DC
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 6, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
Line & Consensus Odds: 3.5 (-123)
This is a classic “line too low for the role" rebound prop. Bub Carrington has cleared 3.5 boards in 80% of his last five and an elite 90% of his previous 10, with a 79.41% season hit rate backing it up. That’s three separate samples all pointing in the same direction, yet the market is still hanging 3.5 at a modest tax. If this stays in the -120s, it’s a strong over to anchor Wizards’ exposure without needing a ceiling-scoring game.
Tyler Herro Over 16.5 Points (-118)
Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves Matchup
- Arena: Target Center
- Location: Minneapolis, MN
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 6, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
Line & Consensus Odds: 16.5 (-118) | Best Price Note: Over 17.5 is available at -102 (FanDuel) if you want to buy the extra point at a better number.
Tyler Herro’s points prop is as hot as it gets: 100% over in his last 5, and 100% over in his previous 10 (6 tracked games). Books are still dealing a mid-teens line with standard juice, which is precisely where bettors want to be pressing overs – before the market forces a 19.5/20.5 correction. If playing the consensus 16.5, it’s still a strong position; if shopping, the -102 on 17.5 is a sharp alternate for better long-run value.
Jaden McDaniels Over 2.5 Assists (-153)
Line & Consensus Odds: 2.5 (-153)
This is a higher-juice play, but the hit-rate support is strong enough to justify it as a “stability" add-on. Jaden McDaniels has gone over 2.5 assists in 80% of his last 5, 60% of his previous 10, and 82.35% on the season. The market is pricing this like a modest favorite, but the season hit rate suggests it should be closer to a true “minus-200" type of profile if role holds. Not the sexiest prop on the slate – just a number that’s still a bit light relative to the data.
The Betting Edge
This slate offers a clean mix: one premium form over (Herro), one high-confidence rebound rate play (Carrington), and a strong all-around combo spot (Nembhard) that’s still priced like a toss-up. As always, the edge is in shopping: when best odds beat consensus, that’s where long-term ROI gets built.
