Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Friday, January 16
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Six NBA games headline Friday’s slate, and the prop board is loaded with a mix of star ceilings and role-player stability. After scanning every matchup, the best angles come from a familiar combo: strong hit rates, opponent-specific history, and a few schedule and injury-driven opportunity bumps.
Tonight’s four-pack spreads exposure across four different games, with each pick backed by multiple data points, not just recent form, but also opponent trends, splits, and percentile ranges that help frame the actual risk/reward at the current number.
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New Orleans Pelicans @ Indiana Pacers Matchup
- Arena: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
- Location: Indianapolis, IN
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 16, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
Pascal Siakam Over 3.5 Assists
Odds: Consensus +119 | Best Price +125 @ BetMGM
Pascal Siakam enters tonight’s matchup with one of the cleanest assist profiles on the board: he’s cleared 3.5 assists in 70% of his last ten and 75% on the season, with a three-game hitting streak. The opponent history is even stronger; Siakam has gone over in five of six against the New Orleans Pelicans (83.33%). From a matchup lens, New Orleans ranks second in assists allowed for this prop type, giving up 2.2 assists per game, compared to the league average of 1.8. With a 2.75 floor and 5.0 ceiling, the number is asking for a median-ish outcome, and the head-to-head data suggests that’s been the norm.
Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets Matchup
- Arena: Barclays Center
- Location: Brooklyn, NY
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 16, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
Nic Claxton Under 7.5 Rebounds
Nic Claxton has been a consistent fade at this rebound line lately, missing 7.5 boards in five straight (0% hit rate over his last five, 30% over his last ten). Even with a season average of 7.5, the recent trend is the story, and the home split doesn’t help, with Claxton at 7.9 rebounds at home but still sitting on a -5 overall streak. The matchup also leans under: Chicago ranks second in limiting rebounds for this prop type, allowing 7.9 rebounds per game, compared to the league average of 7.0. The percentile range supports the downside case, with a 5.75 floor and a 10.0 ceiling, and the current form has lived much closer to the floor than to the ceiling.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers Matchup
- Arena: Wells Fargo Center
- Location: Philadelphia, PA
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 16, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
Tyrese Maxey Over 26.5 Points
Odds: Consensus +100 | Best Price +107 @ Caesars
Tyrese Maxey is still priced like a coin flip despite elite consistency: he’s hit 26.5 points in 80% of his last ten and 80.56% on the season, with a season scoring average of 30.5. The floor/ceiling band is tight enough to like the over at this number, 26.0 floor and 36.0 ceiling, which matters when the line is sitting right on the lower end of his typical range. Even with a modest 50% hit rate in eight games versus the Cleveland Cavaliers, the broader profile is strong, and Cleveland’s defense for this prop type is not a clear red flag (allowing 15.2 versus a 14.2 league average, ranked seventh). At plus money, the market is giving a favorable price on a player who’s been living above this line.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets Matchup
- Arena: Toyota Center
- Location: Houston, TX
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 16, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 Rebounds
Odds: Consensus -134 | Best Price +105 @ Fanatics
Rudy Gobert is in a smash spot for boards, and the price is the giveaway. He’s cleared 11.5 rebounds in 100% of his last five and 70% of his previous ten, riding a five-game over streak with a season average of 11.4. The matchup is as good as it gets: Houston ranks 30th in the hit rate of opposing centers going over their rebounds line, giving up just 5.3 versus a 7.0 league average, and that extreme profile pairs well with Gobert’s role-based rebounding floor (8.0) and ceiling (14.0). Schedule context adds another layer: Minnesota is on the second night of a back-to-back, which can lead to more missed shots and more rebounding opportunities. Getting plus money (+105) on a line he’s been clearing nightly is the misprice worth attacking.
The Betting Edge
The best prop cards are built on alignment – hit rates that match the line, opponent history that confirms the role, and prices that don’t fully reflect the current distribution. That’s the approach behind tonight’s four picks, with a mix of plus-money value and trend-supported unders.
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Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 16.
