Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Saturday, January 17

Nine games headline Saturday’s slate, and the prop board is loaded with spots where recent form, opponent history, and matchup context all point in the same direction.

After scanning every game in the data, the best edges show up in a few consistent places: elite last-ten hit rates, strong head-to-head trends, and lines that still haven’t fully caught up to role and usage.

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Best NBA Player Prop Picks & Odds: Saturday, January 17

The Pick: Keyonte George Over 5.5 Assists

Where to Watch the Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Tonight?

• Arena: American Airlines Center
• Location: Dallas, TX
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 17, 2026
• Time: 5:00 PM ET

Keyonte George enters tonight’s matchup with a strong baseline profile for this number: he’s cleared 5.5 assists in 70% of his last ten games and 77.5% of his season sample (31 of 40). The opponent’s history supports it too, with George hitting in 60% of his last 10 vs Dallas. Even with a tougher matchup indicator (Dallas ranks 6th in assists allowed at 4.9 vs a 4.6 league average), George’s distribution floor is steady (6.0 projected floor, 8.0 projected ceiling), and his home/road split is basically neutral (6.8 home vs 6.9 away). 

The Pick: Jalen Johnson Over 9.5 Rebounds

Where to Watch the Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks Tonight?

• Arena: State Farm Arena
• Location: Atlanta, GA
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 17, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET

Jalen Johnson has been a consistent rebound producer all season, clearing 9.5 boards in 60.53% of his games (23 of 38) with a season average of 10.1. The head-to-head is the separator: Johnson is 4-for-4 (100%) against Boston on this line. The road split also leans his way, averaging 10.5 rebounds away compared to 9.5 at home. Add in a clean range profile (8.0 projected floor, 11.5 projected ceiling) and two days of rest for both teams, and this is a plus-money over what’s supported by both season-long volume and opponent-specific results.

The Pick: Ben Sheppard Over 0.5 Assists

Where to Watch the Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons Tonight?

• Arena: Little Caesars Arena
• Location: Detroit, MI
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 17, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET

Ben Sheppard is the cleanest “one dime" look on the board: he’s hit 0.5 assists in 100% of his last five and 90% of his last ten, with a season hit rate of 80.65% (25 of 31). The matchup context helps, too. Detroit ranks 30th in assists allowed at 2.0 versus a 2.4 league average, and Sheppard has gone over in 50% of his last eight vs the Pistons. The floor/ceiling profile is supportive (1.0 projected floor, 2.5 projected ceiling), and Detroit is on the second leg of a back-to-back (Indiana is not), which is a subtle boost for role-player props that rely on pace and defensive slippage.

The Pick: Norman Powell Over 20.5 Points

Where to Watch the Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat Tonight?

• Arena: Kaseya Center
• Location: Miami, FL
• TV: NBA League Pass
• Date: January 17, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET

Norman Powell has been one of the most reliable point overs in the dataset, clearing 20.5 in 80% of his last five and 90% of his last ten, with a season hit rate of 74.29% (26 of 35). The production backs it up: he’s averaging 23.9 points on the season, and his range is strong for this line (20.5 projected floor, 28.0 projected ceiling). The matchup isn’t screaming “must-bet" (Miami ranks 22nd in points allowed at 10.9 vs. 11.4 league average), but the consistency and slightly improved best price make this a market-friendly way to play a scorer who’s been living above this number.

The Betting Edge

This slate has plenty of noise, but the best prop value still comes from stacking repeatable signals-hit rates, opponent history, and schedule context-then letting price dictate the final click. Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.

Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 17.