Top NBA Player Prop Picks to Target for Wednesday, January 14
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Wednesday’s NBA slate brings seven games, and the prop board is loaded with a few spots where the market is still lagging behind role stability, opponent-specific history, and clean hit-rate trends.
After scanning every matchup in the data, the best edges show up where multiple signals stack: strong last-five and last-ten hit rates, clear opponent history, and either a favorable opponent defensive rank or a schedule angle worth respecting.
Find the Edge with SportsGrid’s Free Daily NBA Picks and Player Props.
Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers Matchup
- Arena: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
- Location: Indianapolis, IN
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 14, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
T.J. McConnell Over 4.5 Assists
T.J. McConnell enters tonight’s matchup with a perfect 100% hit rate over this line in his last five games and 70% in his last ten, with a season average of 4.9 assists. The opponent history is the separator: McConnell has cleared 4.5 assists in 100% of his last eight games versus the Toronto Raptors. Indiana’s recent form supports it too, with McConnell carrying a five-game over streak and a 6.0 assist ceiling that keeps the over live even if minutes fluctuate. At this number, the market is still pricing him like a fringe facilitator, but the hit profile and opponent history say otherwise.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers Matchup
- Arena: Wells Fargo Center
- Location: Philadelphia, PA
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 14, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
Donovan Mitchell Over 5.5 Assists
Odds: Consensus -117 | Best Price -110 @ BetMGM
Donovan Mitchell is the cleanest opponent-history play on the board: he’s hit over 5.5 assists in 100% of his last six games against the Philadelphia 76ers. Even with a modest recent hit rate (40% last five, 60% last ten), the season profile is strong at 75.68% with a 5.5 season average that sits right on the number. The floor/ceiling range (5.0 to 7.0) also fits this line well, and the best price improvement to -110 helps the value case. This is a matchup-driven over where the historical distribution matters more than the short-term noise.
Utah Jazz @ Chicago Bulls Matchup
- Arena: United Center
- Location: Chicago, IL
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 14, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
Lauri Markkanen Over 26.5 Points
Odds: Consensus -107 | Best Price +102 @ FanDuel
Lauri Markkanen checks every box for an over at a strong number: he’s cleared 26.5 points in 80% of his last five and 80% of his last ten, with a season average of 27.9. The matchup adds fuel: Chicago ranks first (out of 30) in points allowed to this profile, giving up 14.7 points per game, compared to the league average of 12.3. Markkanen has also hit this line in 66.67% of his last three against the Bulls, and his ceiling sits at 33.0 points. Getting plus money (+102) on a line that already matches his recent and season-level production is the type of price worth attacking.
Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans Matchup
- Arena: Smoothie King Center
- Location: New Orleans, LA
- TV: NBA League Pass
- Date: January 14, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
Saddiq Bey Over 13.5 Points
Odds: Consensus -113 | Best Price -103 @ DraftKings
Saddiq Bey has been one of the steadier point overs in this slate: 80% hit rate in his last five, 70% in his last ten, and a season average of 15.1 points against a 13.5 line. He’s also on a four-game over streak, and the floor/ceiling band (10.5 to 19.5) supports a number that doesn’t require a ceiling game. Bey has hit this line in 60% of his last five versus the New Orleans Pelicans, and the best price upgrade to -103 tightens the value. This is a classic “line is still too low for the role" over.
The Betting Edge
The best prop cards are built on alignment: hit rates that hold up across samples, opponent history that confirms the matchup, and prices that still leave room for edge. These four plays check those boxes without needing perfect game scripts. Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of January 14.
