10 Potential Upsets for College Football Week 10
TJ Inman
Host · Writer
College football is in full swing as we enter the back half of the season! Week 10 presents a strong slate as we enter November. There are so many games that could offer incredible drama this week. Which teams are potentially on upset watch?
1. Memphis (-13.5) at Rice – Friday at 7:00 on ESPN2
The Memphis Tigers knocked off the South Florida Bulls last weekend and have heard all week about their position in the Group of Five’s race for the College Football Playoff. In terms all college football fans will understand, Memphis has likely been around a lot of “rat poison" this week. They now travel for a Friday night game against one of the more interesting teams in the American Athletic Conference, the Rice Owls. Rice was close against Navy (21-13) and FAU (27-21), but then bottomed out with a 61-13 loss at UTSA. They followed that up with an impressive upset win over the UConn Huskies last week, and the Owls are 15th in the country in rushing yards per game with 208.7 yards per game. The Owls want to shorten this game, limit possessions, and drag the Memphis Tigers into the muck. If they do that successfully, this game becomes interesting and dangerous for the Tigers.
2. Miami (-12.5) at SMU – Noon on ESPN
Do you trust Mario Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes? They were last seen losing to the Louisville Cardinals and then sleeping through a half against Stanford before pulling away. The Hurricanes now play on the road against the SMU Mustangs. SMU had been very impressive in ACC play before falling apart last week against an underrated Wake Forest squad. SMU is very capable of putting up points, and if Miami turns it over a few times in Dallas, the Mustangs could give the Hurricanes their second loss of the season.
3. Navy at North Texas (-6.5) – 1:00 Noon on ESPN2
This is one of my favorite games of the weekend. The matchup between the Navy Midshipmen and North Texas Mean Green will be an extremely entertaining shootout with two high-powered offenses. Navy is unbeaten, and they are averaging 293.8 rushing yards per game (most in the country) and 463.8 total yards per game (15th in the country). On the other sideline, North Texas is third in the country with 501 total yards per game. Look at Navy’s recent scorelines: 34-31 over Air Force, 32-31 against Temple, and 42-32 against Florida Atlantic. North Texas gave up 38 to Army, 22 to South Alabama, 63 to South Florida, and 20 to Charlotte. The over seems like a great bet, but the Mean Green need to be on upset alert as well. Their defense has struggled at times, and Navy is as dangerous an offense as any if your team isn’t tackling well.
4. Arizona State at Iowa State (-6.5) – 1:00 on TNT
After starting the season 5-0, the Iowa State Cyclones have dropped three straight contests and plummeted from the top 15 in the country to unranked. Iowa State lost to Cincinnati and Colorado on the road and then fell to BYU at home by a score of 41-27. The Cyclones are now favored by a touchdown against the Arizona State Sun Devils? That’s a bit curious but understandable, given Arizona State’s consistency issues this season. Arizona State is going to be without star receiver Jordyn Tyson. Still, head coach Kenny Dillingham has now had a couple of weeks to prepare and adjust, and the Cyclones have struggled on defense, so Arizona State should have a chance at success through the air, even without Tyson.
5. Georgia (-7.5) at Florida – 3:30 on ABC
How are the Florida Gators going to respond under interim coach Billy Gonzales? Billy Napier was fired, and the Gators have had a bye week to adjust and get ready for this game against rival Georgia. These things go one of two ways. One path is the team plays free and loose and comes out with an inspired performance after a change. The other path is the team checks out and gets steamrolled under the interim coach’s direction as they wait for the season to end. If the Gators are in the former category, they absolutely have the talent to make Georgia really work in this game. The Bulldogs have struggled at times on defense, and Florida’s weapons, along with UGA’s lack of a pass rush, mean this won’t be a cakewalk.
6. Texas Tech (-7.5) at Kansas State – 3:30 on FOX
The Kansas State Wildcats began the season with a loss to Iowa State in Dublin and then returned home and survived a scare against North Dakota, 38-35. There was a thought that they would look more like the team many had expected after getting some rest, but they lost to Army and Arizona and looked like a team far from competitive. After being left for dead, the Wildcats have responded by winning three of four games, with the lone defeat being by one point at Baylor. The two most recent contests were their best of the season as they beat TCU 41-28 and dominated Kansas 42-17. Avery Johnson is playing much better than he did to start the season, and head coach Chris Klieman appears to have figured out how to reach this team. They now host Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders have some concerns at quarterback. Kansas State continues to play well and upsets Texas Tech, all but ending the Red Raiders’ College Football Playoff hopes.
7. South Carolina at Ole Miss (-12.5) – 7:00 on ESPN
The South Carolina Gamecocks had the Alabama Crimson Tide beat, but they let them off the hook, and a pair of late touchdowns from the Tide turned the night sour for the Gamecocks in Columbia. Ole Miss has spent the week being told they are now a shoo-in for the College Football Playoff and listening to speculation about how much their head coach will be paid and who will be writing his checks. The Gamecocks and Rebels meet in Oxford on Saturday night, and it presents a bit of a trap for Ole Miss, which is looking to see how mature they are after a fantastic win at Oklahoma. If they are paying attention, Ole Miss won’t have any trouble dispatching South Carolina, but if they take this game lightly, the Rebels could be in trouble.
8. USC (-6.5) at Nebraska – 7:30 on NBC
The USC Trojans had a bye week to lick their wounds after getting beaten up by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and falling to 5-2. The Trojans hit the road as a touchdown favorite and take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a game that will go a very long way towards determining the bowl game pecking order in the Big Ten. Lincoln can be a tough place to win at night, and the Huskers have a really good running back in Emmett Johnson (5.7 yards per carry) that could take advantage of a USC defense that was just gashed over and over again by Notre Dame.
9. Wake Forest at Florida State (-9.5) – 7:30 on ACC Network
The Florida State Seminoles began the season 3-0, but as soon as they entered ACC play, things fell apart. The Seminoles have dropped four straight games, and their conference losing streak now stands at nine. The most recent ACC victory for Mike Norvell’s team was on September 21, 2024, against California. If you take that 14-9 win out, FSU is 1-11 in their last 12 conference games. They’ve had a bye week to figure things out, but I don’t trust Norvell to get this team to buy back in. They now host an undermanned but very well-coached Wake Forest team. The Demon Deacons have won three straight games, including an impressive 13-12 victory over SMU last week. Florida State cannot be trusted, and Wake Forest prolongs their misery, handing the Seminoles a tenth-straight ACC defeat.
10. Cincinnati at Utah (-9.5) – 10:15 on ESPN
The Cincinnati Bearcats are 7-1 with seven straight victories, but they now face their toughest test, travelling to Salt Lake City to play the Utah Utes. The Bearcats have not faced a road environment like this, and the Utes are one of the best teams in the Big 12. But examine Utah’s wins thus far: UCLA before the coaching change, Cal Poly, Wyoming, West Virginia, Arizona State, and Colorado. Their two losses came against ranked foes Texas Tech and BYU. Utah will be starting a freshman quarterback for the second straight week. While he played really well in his first outing, the Bearcats have a better defense than Colorado, and they’ll likely be better prepared after seeing some film on Byrd Ficklin. The Bearcats have one of the better quarterbacks in the country that few know about, and Brendan Sorsby will be needed to have a big game, but if he does, Cincinnati can keep on rolling and cover this big spread.
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