12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions Going Into Championship Week

9. Ohio State Buckeyes at 8. Tennessee Volunteers

The absolute shocker of the weekend was Ohio State losing at home to Michigan. The Wolverines were without their only real offensive weapon (Colston Loveland), and Ohio State was a 20.5-point favorite against their bitter rivals. Still, Ryan Day came up small in “The Game” again. That loss means Ohio State now has two defeats, and the committee’s last look at the Buckeyes was not pretty. They are drawn away to Tennessee in an intriguing SEC-Big Ten matchup in Knoxville. The Volunteers looked great against Vanderbilt. After falling behind 14-0, the Vols roared back and found some firepower through the air, a promising sign moving forward. They are 10-2 with no real bad losses.

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2. Texas Longhorns - SEC Champion

The Texas Longhorns might have the country’s best defense, and that unit has propelled them to a berth in the SEC Championship Game. The defensive line has been dominant, and the Longhorns went to College Station and squeezed the life from the Texas A&M Aggies to secure a rematch with Georgia in Atlanta. The biggest concern with Texas will be the continued reliance on Quinn Ewers. Ewers has not looked fully healthy for a while, and his lack of mobility and the general lack of explosive plays for the offense are potential issues for their title chances.

SEC Championship Game: Georgia vs. Texas (-2.5)

3. SMU Mustangs - ACC Champion

The Miami Hurricanes lost at Syracuse, Clemson lost to South Carolina, while SMU keeps taking care of business. The Mustangs are now the favorite to win the ACC title and the bye that should accompany it. SMU has a potent offense, but the excellent play of the defense has made them a viable contender not just to make the playoff but to be a dangerous team once they are there. The big question is how the playoff committee will treat SMU if they lose to Clemson. Would they get an at-large bid, or would they drop out of the field?

ACC Championship Game: Clemson vs. SMU (-2.5)

4. Boise State Broncos - Group of Five

The Boise State Broncos handled the Oregon State Beavers. In addition, the top Group of Five team behind them in the rankings, Tulane, lost to Memphis. Undoubtedly, if the Broncos can beat UNLV on Friday night in the Mountain West Conference Championship, Boise State will make the field and should earn a bye to the Fiesta Bowl. If Boise State were to lose, would the bid go to UNLV, or would it fall to the American Athletic title game winner between Tulane and Army?

MWC Title Game: UNLV vs. Boise State (-3.5)

12. Arizona State (Big 12 Champion) at 5. Penn State Nittany Lions

The Arizona State Sun Devils blasted rival Arizona and improved to 10-2 on the season. They secured a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game and will take on the Iowa State Cyclones with a trip to the College Football Playoff on the line. ASU is a slight favorite, and if Boise State wins the Mountain West, the Big 12 champ will likely be slotted in as the 12-seed. If Boise State loses, Arizona State would climb to the four-seed and earn a bye to the Fiesta Bowl. In this projection, ASU would be playing at fifth-seeded Penn State. The Nittany Lions will face off with Oregon for the Big Ten Championship. A loss to the Ducks would not be punished, and PSU would get the coveted five-seed in the field, squeaking above Notre Dame.

Big 12 Championship Game: Iowa State at Arizona State (-2.5)

11. Alabama Crimson Tide at 6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

What will the selection committee do with the final at-large spot? Does it go to South Carolina after they won at Clemson? Their argument could be thwarted by losing at home to Ole Miss in a blowout and losing to Alabama. How about the 9-3 Rebels? They have a dreadful home loss to Kentucky on their resume. Alabama? They lost 24-3 to Oklahoma and basically have a running back playing quarterback. Miami? The Hurricanes have two losses against a weak schedule with no marquee wins and several close calls; they were lucky not to be 8-4. Ultimately, I went with Alabama as they have wins over Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina, and at LSU. The losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt are bad, but someone has to get in as the final at-large spot, and the head-to-head win over South Carolina matters. The Crimson Tide will root hard for SMU to beat Clemson and ensure the ACC does not get two bids.

10. Indiana Hoosiers at 7. Georgia Bulldogs

The Indiana Hoosiers needed to send a statement to the Playoff Selection Committee, and they left a heck of a last impression. IU improved to 11-1 with a historic splattering of rival Purdue, winning 66-0 and outgaining the Boilermakers 582 yards to 67. It was IU’s first shutout of the Boilers since 1945 and the largest margin of victory ever for Indiana in the rivalry. Question Indiana’s strength of schedule, but the results matter, and the Hoosiers have bludgeoned nearly everyone. They draw a trip to Athens to play SEC runner-up Georgia. The Bulldogs somehow squeaked by against Georgia Tech, erasing a 14-point deficit in the final four minutes of regulation and winning in eight overtimes to finish the regular season at 10-2. Georgia now plays Texas, with the winner getting a bye and the likely No. 2 seed in the bracket.

9. Ohio State Buckeyes at 8. Tennessee Volunteers

The absolute shocker of the weekend was Ohio State losing at home to Michigan. The Wolverines were without their only real offensive weapon (Colston Loveland), and Ohio State was a 20.5-point favorite against their bitter rivals. Still, Ryan Day came up small in “The Game” again. That loss means Ohio State now has two defeats, and the committee’s last look at the Buckeyes was not pretty. They are drawn away to Tennessee in an intriguing SEC-Big Ten matchup in Knoxville. The Volunteers looked great against Vanderbilt. After falling behind 14-0, the Vols roared back and found some firepower through the air, a promising sign moving forward. They are 10-2 with no real bad losses.

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