College Football Week 2 Best Bets: B1GBets Big Ten Expert Picks

We finally won a game! It was a long wait, as our first cover of the season didn’t come until after midnight, when UCLA took care of Cal. That doesn’t mean we’re happy with our 2-4 Week 1, but at least B1G Bets still has a better record than Clay Travis.

Week 2 offers another loaded Big Ten slate with 17 games (Northwestern is off).

The marquee matchup is No. 1 Ohio State at No. 4 Texas, which we are staying clear of. The good news is that the B1G-SEC clash is one of eight Big Ten games against Power 4 opponents after just two last week.

B1G BETS 2026 BETTING RECORD

• 2026 Season: 2-6 (-3.5 UNITS) | ATS Bets: 1-3 (-2 UNITS)
• Team Totals: 1-2 (-1 UNIT) | Game Totals: 0-1 (-0.5 UNIT)
• Not So B1G Bets: 2-3 (-0.5 UNIT) | B1G Bets: 0-3 (-3 UNITS)
• B1GGER Bets: 0-0 (0 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (0 UNITS)

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NOT SO B1G BET (1/2 UNIT):

Rutgers OVER 24.5 (@DraftKings)

Hopefully Friday night lights will be kinder to us this week. As bad as Rutgers was against UMass last week, they’re still probably the better team.

The best player on either team is RU WR KJ Duff, who had nine receptions for 196 yards and three touchdowns. RB Antwan Raymond is a legit top-notch back who rushed for 1,241 yards (5.1 YPC) and 13 TDs in 2025. The offensive line is solid.

I was ready to take the points with RU, but ultimately their defense is gross. It was gross last season and gross last week.

If they bounce back, it will be because of the offense. The Scarlet Knights scored 27 points or more in eight of 12 games in 2025 and only failed to do so at Washington, vs. Oregon, at Illinois, and at Ohio State. All bowl teams. All programs that won at least nine games. Including two playoff teams.

Boston College isn’t going to touch any of those programs and will be lucky to win four or five games.

Of the four major units, RU’s offense is easily the most talented and the side to back tonight.

Oregon -21.5 OKLAHOMA STATE (@KALSHI)

The Ducks did not put their best webbed foot forward in Week 1 in their closer-than-expected win over Boise State, which dropped them from No. 2 to No. 6 in both polls. You can bet that motivated Oregon this week—more so the performance than the rankings—but we would be surprised if Dan Lanning didn’t use it as motivation too.

This is a mismatch on both sides of the ball.

Dante Moore completed 75.7 percent of his passes for 378 yards against the Broncos, and he can be better. With Jeremiah McClellan, Dakorien Moore, Evan Stewart, and TE Jamari Johnson, he has four elite targets Oklahoma State has to deal with. An OSU defense that allowed 9.5 yards per pass to Baylor Hayes (6.8 YPA in 2025) in a 24-10 upset loss to Tulsa.

The Ducks had three first-half possessions that went into Boise territory that didn’t result in points, as they failed to convert on fourth-and-short twice and punted from the opponent’s 43-yard line, not something you’ll see often this season. They also settled for a FG to open the second half after reaching the Broncos’ eight-yard line.

On top of that, they fumbled a punt (should have been interference on Boise) to set up a touchdown and were flagged 10 times for 90 yards.

They gifted points and left points on the field. We expect a crisper performance.

Defensively, we’re anticipating dominance. Oklahoma State doesn’t have the blockers upfront to match up with Oregon’s fearsome foursome of Matayo Uiagalelei, Teitum Tuioti, Bear Alexander (who all had a sack last week), and A’Mauri Washington. Adding injury to insult, OSU lost their left tackle Jacob Sexton for the season (lower-leg injury).

The run defense did a great job of stopping Boise’s two-headed backfield as they limited the Broncos to 2.6 YPC.

New HC Eric Morris and his band of former North Texas Mean Green were supposed to transform the Cowboys. This was supposed to be a test before OSU begins Big 12 play. Could the former AAC stars step up in class? Well, they couldn’t even handle Tulsa in Week 1, an AAC team.

Drew Mestemaker averaged 4.9 yards per attempt and was intercepted twice by the Golden Hurricane. Not only does Oregon bring arguably the top defensive line in college football, but they also have a deep and talented secondary led by sophomore CB Brandon Finney, a future first-round pick.

This experiment might fail before they even begin conference play.

MICHIGAN +5.5 Oklahoma (@BetRivers)

I’m really doing it. My worst pick of Week 1 was Michigan -27.5. Might be the worst bet of B1G Bets since joining SportsGrid in 2022. That’s not an overreaction, but this line movement might be, as the line moved about eight points from last week before coming back a bit despite little action on the Wolverines.

Let’s leave the Bryce Underwood of things to the side.

Despite all the controversy and everyone dogging Michigan (deservedly), the truth is the Wolverines had a 94.7 percent post-game win expectancy with an adjusted margin of 14.9 points. Michigan averaged 7.4 YPA (5.9 taking away the Hail Marys) to 4.2 YPA by WMU and 4.2 YPC to 2.9 YPC. So, they weren’t “outplayed.”

Michigan turned the ball over three times and committed nine penalties (80 yards). Expect Kyle Whittingham’s team to clean that up. Expect the offensive line and running backs to play better.

As for the defense, they did not allow a touchdown, and two of WMU’s field goal “drives” totaled 16 yards. Without the turnovers, the Broncos would have scored six points.

This defense matches up well with an Oklahoma offense that averaged 4.4 YPC against UTEP.

Moving through PK, through three, and through four, this looks like a spread overreaction to Week 1. If Michigan, which is still a very talented team, bounces back after an embarrassing loss to pull off the upset this week, it wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened in college football. We’re not that bold, but if you’re giving me over five points in the Big House, we’ll take it.

PURDUE +3 Wake Forest (@DraftKings)

This handicap is pretty simple. These teams are pretty damn even. SP+ agrees. Wake Forest is ranked No. 67, and Purdue is ranked No. 68. The game is in West Lafayette. So why are the Demon Deacons a three-point road favorite?

Two pieces I like for Purdue are the continuity at quarterback with Ryan Browne and the addition of running back Fame Ijeboi from Minnesota.

Browne threw for 317 yards (10.9 YPA) and three touchdowns last week. We’re not making the case for Browne as an elite passer, but before he got banged up last season, he topped 300 yards in three of their first four home games, including two against B1G opponents USC and Illinois.

A powerful runner, Ijeboi rushed for 87 yards and a TD on 11 carries (7.9 YPC).

Look for Browne to make some plays and protect the football, as Ijeboi carries the load.

Barry Odom is a good coach, and the Boilermakers will be better this season. With one of the nation’s toughest schedules, the record may not show major improvement, but Saturday is an opportunity to get a big win against a Power 4 opponent.

Duke +5.5 ILLINOIS (@DraftKings)

This is another matchup where the teams look very close, and the line doesn’t add up.

Was anyone impressed with what they saw from Illinois last week? With a completely rebuilt front six, the Illini allowed 413 yards to UAB. UAB! A borderline top-100 offense. I was concerned about the trenches for Bret Bielema’s team, and the 194 rushing yards the Blazers picked up didn’t alleviate that.

Duke is led by sophomore running back Nate Sheppard (1,132 yards, 5.7 YPC, 11 TD in 2025), who rushed for 227 yards (6.5 YPC) and two touchdowns last week.

The Blue Devils defense held Tulane to three points and 54 yards rushing (2.1 YPC). Sophomore DE Bryce Davis had two sacks, and Manny Diaz’s defense might be better than projected.

Another concern with the Illini is their offensive line, which is breaking in four new starters.

It’s not typical to be this worried about the line play of a Bielema team. You also don’t expect a Bielema team to lose the time-of-possession battle 41:03 to 18:57 to anyone, let alone an UAB-caliber opponent.

The Blue Devils run the ball and keep it close.

Iowa State UNDER 13.5 (@DraftKings)

I’m still not sure what Iowa has on offense, especially as they’re still figuring out the quarterback position. I’m also not sure this will be a vintage Iowa defense when they have to step up in competition, but we’re still a few weeks away from that.

Phil Parker can still scheme things up against an inferior opponent (6 sacks on 30 dropbacks last week), which is what Iowa State is.

The Cyclones are 102nd in returning production. Matt Campbell left for Penn State, followed by QB Rocco Becht (among others), as ISU lost 55 players to the portal. Their leading returner in scrimmage yards had 87, and no offensive linemen had more than 48 snaps last season is back (per Bill Connelly).

First-year coach Jimmy Rogers overachieved with Washington State last season, but their success mostly came from the defense.

Iowa State scored 38 points last week, but they managed just 303 yards against Southeast Missouri State (defense ranked 195th by SP+). The Cyclones also lost the time-of-possession battle, 36:52 to 23:08.

In three seasons at Arkansas State, ISU QB Jaylen Raynor faced four Power 4 foes, with one TD to six INT in those matchups.

The Cy-Hawk game has gone under 40 points in six of the past seven meetings, so expect a low-scoring game with Iowa’s rushing attack (ball control) and defense winning out.

USC -18.5 Louisiana First Half (@DraftKings)

We’re still kicking ourselves for not taking USC last week against Fresno State. There’s a part of me that wants to stay away again, especially after losing with the Trojans in Week 0. But that would be scared money, and you know what scared money doesn’t do? Make money.

With their 39-0 win over the Bulldogs, Lincoln Riley improved to 6-2 ATS against G5/6 teams (all favored by over 21 points).

With an East Coast trip to Rutgers upcoming, we’re expecting a quick start for the Trojans as they look to end this game early, just as they have in both games this season before halftime: 28-0 vs. San Jose State and 30-0 vs. Fresno State.

We saw the Jayden Maiava we expect to see against inferior teams last week when he averaged 14.0 YPA on his way to 349 yards (3 TDs). True freshman Trent Mosley (222 yards, 3 TDs) has been an absolute stud this season, and fellow frosh Kayden Dixon-Wyatt joined him as a 100-yard receiver (102 yards) against Fresno. Expect a breakout game for projected WR1 Tanook Hines, who missed their season opener and had just two catches (18 yards) last week.

With the running back tandem of Waymond Jordan and King Miller, the Men of Troy are a threat to score on every play through the air and on the ground.

Louisiana’s defense is much worse than Fresno’s, so don’t be surprised to see USC score on every possession the starters are in the game, while the defense has yet to allow a first-half point.

With an 11:00 PM start, let’s get to bed early with a first-half cover from the Trojans.

WASHINGTON -26.5 Utah State (@Bet365)

Washington had one of the more disappointing Week 1 performances.

Demond Williams, specifically, was off. He missed throws as the Huskies left a ton of points on the field. His 7.7 YPA was well below his 9.6 YPA in home games last season. His QBR was 51.0, a number he failed to better three times last season: vs. Ohio State (48.9), at Michigan (35.7), and at Wisconsin (46.3) in a downpour. It would be shocking if he wasn’t significantly better this Saturday.

On Washington’s final two possessions of the first half, they scored no points despite goal-to-go drives, as they missed a chip-shot field goal and were stopped on fourth-and-1 to end the half. They would turn it over on downs (fourth-and-1) again in the third quarter in WSU territory.

Don’t expect a repeat against Utah State.

Also, look for the offensive line to play better and for the penalties (which can always be an issue) to be less egregious (12 penalties for 130 yards) than they were in the Apple Cup.

B1G BET (1 UNIT):

Utah State UNDER 14.5 (@Caesars)

When I said the Huskies had a disappointing Week 1 performance, I meant the offense. The defense did its job, holding the Cougars to 10 points and 4.32 yards per play.

Finally healthy, LB Jacob Manu was all over the place (11 tackles, 1 sack), leading a unit that had three sacks among eight tackles for loss, as they flashed their defensive line depth. Top transfer, CB Emmanuel Karnley (2 PD), is a big-time cover man, and their freshmen looked the part of starters. DT Derek Colman-Brusa, who had a TFL, also tipped a pass, which fellow true freshman Jeron Jones intercepted.

Ryan Walters’s defense is legit.

As bad as WSU’s offense is, Utah State is just as anemic, and their quarterback situation is a mess.

The Aggies played both McCae Hillstead and Grady Brosterhous in their Week 1 loss to Idaho State. Hillstead, dealing with an arm injury, completed 50 percent of his passes with three interceptions. Brosterhous tapped in and completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes with an interception.

This spells trouble against an athletic and opportunistic Washington defense.

MINNESOTA +1.5 Mississippi State (@DraftKings)

This handicap is pretty simple. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. These teams are pretty damn even. SP+ agrees. Minnesota moved up seven spots to No. 34, and Mississippi State moved up 18 spots to No. 35.

Everyone is hyped up about 6’4", 230-pound QB Kamario Taylor, who threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns. I get it. He’s physically impressive, but that was against UL-Monroe, who might be the worst FBS team. MSU’s +18 jump is the biggest among Power 4 programs, and they’re still one spot behind the Golden Gophers.

Minnesota has home-field advantage and, for all the Taylor hype this week, might have the better quarterback in Drake Lindsey, who is 6’5′ and 230 pounds. Lindsey threw for 264 yards against Eastern Illinois, and his 11.0 YPA was better than Taylor’s Week 1.

With their win last week, Lindsey improved to 8-0 at home. He now has 11 TD passes to 2 INT in the friendly confines of Huntington Bank Stadium. On the flip side, Taylor is making his first career road start, and maybe it’s my Big Ten pride speaking here, but that crowd will surprise the SEC invaders on Saturday.

The Bulldogs were unimpressive at stopping the run against ULM, and the Golden Gophers have the more balanced offense with veteran runner Darius Taylor (2,511 yards, 5.0 YPC) and transfer TJ Thomas, who averaged 7.4 YPC in his Big Ten debut.

Defensively, Minnesota has one of the nation’s best pass rushes. They were sixth in the country in sacks per game last season, with EDGE Anthony Smith (12.5 sacks), Karter Menz (6.4 sacks), and Jaxon Howard (4 sacks) all back. In 16 dropbacks, they had one sack last week, by Cal transfer TJ Bush (5.5 sacks in 2025).

They will get to Taylor and expect the secondary, led by CB John Nestor (6 INT) and S Kerry Brown, to hold their own.

I’ll take the more experienced group (eighth in returning production) at home getting points.

B1GGER BET (1.5 UNITS):

None. 

B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS):

None.