Analyzing CFP Implications in 5 Key Conference Championship Games

Mountain West Loser

If Boise State wins the Mountain West Championship, UNLV will be out of the postseason picture. Meanwhile, if UNLV wins, Boise State will have a slim chance to make the postseason but will still have an opportunity to be a team at large for the final CFP rankings.

Mountain West Championship Game: No. 20 UNLV vs. No. 10 Boise State (-3.5)

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Big Ten Loser

The Big Ten Championship game loser will still be one of the top seeds in the postseason. If Oregon were to lose, they would drop no lower than the No. 5 seed. On the flip side, if Penn State were to lose, they would likely fall no lower than the No. 6 seed unless the Ducks blow them out.

Big Ten Championship Odds: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon (-3.5)

SEC Champion: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas

In what will be a rematch from the in-season SEC showdown, the Longhorns and Bulldogs will go head-to-head again for a shot at clinching a first-round bye in the playoffs. If Texas wins, they will lock themselves in at no lower than the No. 2 seed, with the potential to grab the No. 1 seed if Oregon were to lose. However, if Georgia wins, they will grab the No. 2 seed and force the Longhorns to compete in the first round of the playoffs.

Odds to Win National Championship: Texas +380

Odds to Win National Championship: Georgia +550

SEC Loser

Both teams have locked themselves into a postseason spot after an impressive season. If Georgia were to lose, they will likely slot in at the No.7 seed considering the committee has ruled that they will not be adjusting the rankings of any teams with no more games to be played (conference championship games). That said, a loss for Georgia would slot them behind No. 4 Notre Dame, and No. 6 Ohio State with the No. 5 seed likely going to the loser of the Big Ten Championship. Meanwhile, if Texas were to lose, they would have a chance to slot in at the No. 5 seed with an 11-2 record, unless Oregon loses to Penn State.

SEC Championship Odds: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas (-2.5)

ACC Champion: No. 17 Clemson vs. No. 8 SMU

The winner of this showdown will punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff. If SMU wins the ACC Championship, they'll likely grab the No. 3 seed. Meanwhile, if Clemson is the winner, there won't be a guarantee that they will grab a first-round bye. Assuming that Boise State and Arizona State win their respective conferences, the Tigers could land anywhere between seeds three and four or land at No. 12. Obviously, other dominos will affect the ranking of Clemson if they are the winner. Still, for SMU, a win will clinch them the No. 3 seed.

Odds to Win National Championship: SMU +2000

Odds to Win National Championship: Clemson +6000

ACC Loser

If SMU loses in the ACC Championship, the Mustangs will still have a strong case to make the postseason. Considering what would be an 11-2 record, it would be hard for the committee to penalize a team for making their conference championship game, regardless of a loss. However, if Clemson loses, they will be out of the postseason running with a 9-4 record.

ACC Championship Odds: No. 18 Clemson vs. No. 8 SMU (-2.5)

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Big 12 Champion: No. 16 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Arizona State

The winner of this matchup will need Clemson to win for them to have any chance of grabbing a first-round bye, and even then, that won't be guaranteed. Nonetheless, a win will punch their postseason ticket and, at the least, slot them in at the No. 12 seed for a first-round battle against the No. 5 seed.

Odds to Win National Championship: Arizona State +8000

Odds to Win National Championship: Iowa State +10000

Big 12 Loser

The loser of this matchup will be knocked out of the playoff race.

Big 12 Championship Odds: No. 16 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Arizona State (-2.5)

Mountain West Champion: No. 20 UNLV vs. No. 10 Boise State

This matchup alone could shake up the postseason seeding. If Boise State were to win, they'd have a strong case for a top-four seed and a first-round bye. However, if UNLV were to win, they would likely clinch no higher than the No. 12 seed, which could slot the winner of the Big 12 Championship into a top-four seed, considering the committee doesn't move them ahead of either Iowa State or Arizona State (unlikely).

Odds to Win National Championship: Boise State +10000

Odds to Win National Championship: UNLV +25000

Mountain West Loser

If Boise State wins the Mountain West Championship, UNLV will be out of the postseason picture. Meanwhile, if UNLV wins, Boise State will have a slim chance to make the postseason but will still have an opportunity to be a team at large for the final CFP rankings.

Mountain West Championship Game: No. 20 UNLV vs. No. 10 Boise State (-3.5)

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