NCAAF · 2 hours ago

Big Ten Week 6 Expert Picks and Best Bets for Saturday

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

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Week 5 of the College Football season offers us a six-pack of Big Ten games, all in conference play.

Ohio State and Illinois are in sandwich spots. Penn State is headed to the West Coast while UCLA is hard to back. I don’t trust Washington on the road, especially on the East Coast (due to trauma from a trip to RU in 2024) or in Maryland in general. There looks to be hefty winds in Lincoln, which could throw a monkey wrench into MSU’s trip to Nebraska. Also, keep an eye on the Minnesota team total, which has dipped to 9.5. If that number reaches double digits again, take the under and back the Buckeyes defense.

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

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Big Ten Week 6 College Football Picks

B1G: Power Rankings | Bowl Projections

Last Week: 2-4 (+2 UNITS) | Overall: 17-16 (EVEN)

Not So B1G Bets: 11-10 (+ 1/2 UNIT) | B1G Bets: 6-5 (+1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 0-1 (-1.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS)

ATS Bets: 6-12 (-4.5 UNIT) | Team Totals: 9-3 (+4 UNITS) | Game Totals: 2-1 (+1/2 UNIT)

NOT SO B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 2-1 | Season: 11-10 (+1/2 UNIT)

MICHIGAN -17 Wisconsin (@Caesars)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FOX

Both teams were off last Saturday and had an extra week to prepare. The most significant growth I expect from either side is for Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood, an 18-year-old true freshman. It’s an opportunity for him to develop and build chemistry with his receiving corps (including tight ends). He has already shown growth, and I expect more from him this week. The same goes for their offensive line.

In Wisconsin, Underwood will face a pass defense that ranks 84th in EPA/pass and 77th in pass defense success rate. You can throw on the Badgers, who will be without FS Preston Zachman.

You might counter with Wisconsin’s strong rush defense and a Michigan offense that remains run-first. That’s true. But consider the rushing offenses the Badgers have faced: No. 133 MTSU, No. 122 Maryland, No. 108 Alabama, and No. 96 Miami (OH). At 253.5 yards per game on the ground, the Wolverines are eighth nationally. That’s because they run a lot? The Maize and Blue are second in yards per carry (6.67). Alabama is 99th (3.90 YPC) and Maryland is 121st (3.34 YPC).

Justice Haynes has been as good as any runner in the country with 537 yards and six TDs (8.1 YPC). Then there’s Underwood (7.7 YPC), who can be a dynamic runner and needs to be accounted for.

Michigan also has the special teams edge, but the most significant advantage is a stifling defense that will get the ball back to their offense quickly, potentially with a short field (more on that below).

The line is 16.5 at Bet365 (-125) if you don’t mind laying the extra juice. Not something I recommend, but to each his own.

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Illinois-PURDUE OVER 54.5 (@FanDuel)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FOX

Illinois has played five games and has scored at least 34 points in four of them. The offensive line had its best game last week against what had been a formidable USC front four, which allowed them to be more balanced offensively. Luke Altmyer is having an impressive season with career highs in yards per pass (9.4) and completion percentage (71.4) to go with 11 TDs and no interceptions. Their receivers are coming along, flashing more explosiveness than advertised.

The Illini are ranked 26th in points per drive, 25th in offense success rate, and 35th in EPA/play. Purdue has improved over last season, but most of their gains have come on the offensive side of the ball. The Boilermakers are 97th in points per drive allowed, 130th in EPA/play, and 116th in success rate on defense. Equally inept in stopping the run and pass, on early downs and 3rd/4th downs, Purdue is 112th in available yards allowed.

In two games against P4 teams, they allowed 33 points to USC and 56 points at Notre Dame. This is a mismatch. Maybe the Illini allow the Boilermakers to keep it close; perhaps they won’t. Either way, expect a lot of points from Illinois.

Did I mention Purdue has made strides on offense? They’re ranked 35th in offensive success rate and 44th in EPA/drive. If they keep it close, as many suspect they will, it will be because of their offense.

Part of that equation is the Illini defense, which has been struggling this season: 109th in points per drive, 95th in EPA, and 87th in success rate.

In three games against Power Four teams, Illinois and its opponents have combined to score 64, 73, and 66 points. No reason to expect that to slow down this weekend.

UCLA UNDER 12.5 vs. Penn State (-105 @Caesars)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: CBS

Penn State is 0-4 ATS and has been the most underwhelming top-ten team through the first month of the season. But that’s on the offense. The defense has been outstanding, including allowing 17 points against Oregon in regulation last week.

They’re ranked 17th in points per drive, 9th in EPA, and 25th in success rate, compared to a UCLA offense that’s 118th in points per drive, 115th in EPA, and 67th in success rate.

The Bruins are one-dimensional, and if they’re not able to run the ball, it will allow the Nittany Lions to get after the quarterback.

UCLA managed ten points against Utah and 14 at Northwestern a week ago. Neither defense is as good as Penn State’s. Additionally, UCLA is ranked 132nd in time of possession and will have limited opportunities.

After firing head coach Deshaun Foster, the Bruins also parted ways with OC Tino Sunseri early this week. This team and offense, in particular, are in shambles.

You don’t have to watch this one, folks. Just bet it and forget it.

UL Monroe-NORTHWESTERN UNDER 43.5 (@ESPNBet)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: BTN

Another, bet it and forget it, play.

Northwestern has a solid defense that has played well at home and should be able to handle a poor UL Monroe attack, which is ranked 111th in offensive success rate.

The ‘Cats are a double-digit favorite and not really known for blowing teams out. If ULM keeps it close, it’s because the strength of their team is also their defense. It’s hard to imagine Northwestern putting up 30-plus points.

Regardless of who wins the game or covers the spread, points will be tough to come by at the lake.

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 0-2 | Season: 6-5 (+1 UNIT)

Wisconsin UNDER 13.5 (-115 @Caesars)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FOX

Wisconsin’s offense is bad, banged up, and an overall mess. With Luke Fickell telling us he needs to protect Billy Edwards Jr., citing starting him too soon versus Maryland, and Danny O’Neil taking the majority of reps in practice, QB2 will likely get the nod. It’s also expected that the Badgers will be without their starting center, possibly their top two, leaving a redshirt freshman forced into duty. Snapping has been an issue.

The offensive line has been a significant disappointment, partially due to three redshirt freshman starters, one due to injury, and another because they benched their Game 1 starter at left tackle (taking center snaps this week). They’ve allowed as many sacks (13) through four games as they did all of last season, and O’Neil has not fared well when pressured. Their 3.25 sacks per game allowed is the 11th most in FBS.

Maryland was very successful blitzing against the Badgers; tape, you can bet, DC Wink Martindale has worn out. Not only does Michigan have an assortment of blitz packages, but it also has defenders who can win one-on-one. Jaishawn Barham has three sacks in the past two games since making the switch to EDGE, and veterans Derrick Moore and DT Rayshaun Benny are coming off their best games (1.5 sacks each vs. Nebraska). The Wolverines have 14 sacks, and their 3.5 per game ranks 6th.

Michigan’s ability to control the line of scrimmage will limit what Wisconsin can do. An offense (95th in EPA/pass, 101st in rush success rate, 79th in points per drive) that is already limited. Not only does ESPN’s Bill Connelly have their QB duo ranked 62nd out of 68 P4 starting QBs, but the running game isn’t helping much. In 86 carries, the top three backs have no rushes longer than 17 yards.

Don’t expect them to look like Barry Alvarez’s Badgers against a defense ranked eighth in rushing success rate and 13th in EPA/rush.

Against Power Four teams, Wisconsin managed 14 points (including a KR TD) at Alabama and ten points against Maryland. Neither performance bodes well for their trip to Ann Arbor.