NCAAF · 1 year ago

Breaking Down Oregon’s Close Call vs. Boise State: 10 Takeaways

Grant White

Host · Writer

Oregon's Perceived Value is Trending Downward
An eventual win did nothing to pacify the sharpest bettors and college football pundits. Heading into Week 3, the Oregon Ducks are trending downward.

Oregon's nail-biting victory negatively impacted its position in the AP Poll. The Ducks fell to ninth in the rankings, dropping two spots from their previous position. Likewise, the betting market has lost faith in its ability. After opening as -20.5 chalk against the Oregon State Beavers next week, Oregon was bought down to -16.5.

Now 0-2 against the spread, if the Ducks continue to falter, they could slide all the way out of playoff contention.
Ashton Jeanty is a Heisman Frontrunner
We know the Boise State Broncos offense will always be ready to perform, but no one could have expected them to be this good. That's all thanks to the performance of Ashton Jeanty, who has cemented himself as a Heisman Trophy frontrunner with his early-season performances.

Jeanty ran rampant against the Oregon Ducks on Saturday, churning out 192 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries. That's in addition to the 267 yards and six touchdowns he added in the Broncos' season-opener against the Georgia Southern Eagles. That already puts him within reach of his career-best 14 scores he managed last season and fewer than 900 yards of his rushing total.

Oregon isn't a defensive juggernaut, but they're also no slouches. With an inferior Mountain West schedule on the horizon, Jeanty's +2800 odds of becoming the next Heisman Trophy winner are only going lower.
Dillon Gabriel Can Dot the I's With His Throws
The Oregon Ducks have always set up their quarterbacks for success. Virtually every player who has donned the green and yellow has accomplished great things with the program and experienced some level of success in the pro game. But Oregon has someone special in Dillon Gabriel.

Gabriel scored an outstanding 18-for-21 in the passing game, missing just three throws against a respectable Boise State defense. Andrew Simpson and the Broncos' defensive front pressured Gabriel throughout but never managed to knock him off his stride.

Ultimately, the Ducks pivot finished with a tidy 243 yards, two touchdowns, 11.6 yards per pass attempt, and a 214.3 quarterback rating.
Jordan James is an Elite Feature Back
It's time to recognize Jordan James's contributions to the Ducks' offense. Oregon is always a pass-first school, so it's easy to overlook its running backs. But James is making a name for himself early in 2024 and could become a more prominent part of the game-planning after Week 2's win.

The junior running back had a career day, toting the ball 17 times for 102 yards. That was the second time he's eclipsed the century mark throughout his career and the most carries he's had in a game. He made effective reads and wasn't scared of running the ball into contact.

Through two games, James has 197 rushing yards on 32 carries. That will take some pressure off of Gabriel and the passing attack, amplifying Jordan's profile as an elite feature back.
Maddux Madsen Might Not be the Guy
As good as the Broncos' offense has looked, most of their success can be attributed to Jeanty and the run game. Maddux Madsen was tabbed as the preseason starter, but his early returns aren't promising. That could force Boise State to turn to Malachi Nelson sooner rather than later.

Madsen took over for the departed Taylen Green this season, and he's been unable to find his footing. The sophomore mustered 148 passing yards on 17-for-40 pass attempts, dropping his season-long completion rate to 54.9%.

Boise State has former four-star recruit Nelson waiting in the wings. If Madsen doesn't deliver improved results under center, Nelson could be the upgrade the Broncos need.
Boise State Needs to Stretch the Field More
Opponents have already started game-planning to stack the box against Jeanty. The Broncos running back has carried the team thus far, but his efficiency could be impacted by a sustained workload and more effective defenses. Boise State's best chance of offsetting those factors is stretching the field and getting more out of its passing game.

In Saturday's defeat, no receiver had a catch longer than 21 yards. Moreover, most of Madsen's throws were underneath routes or check-downs, allowing the Ducks to limit gains.

A handful of the Broncos' passing attempts forced Oregon to retreat on defense, and none of the plays amounted to significant gains. Whether they turn to Nelson or change their play-calling, the Broncos need to find more ways of stretching the field.
Oregon Needs to Bolster Its Defensive Front
Forty pass attempts against just one sack and 221 rushing yards allowed are the most damning stats following Oregon's home win. But they both result in the same conclusion -- the Ducks need to bolster their defensive front.

Even when bringing extra defenders, the Ducks could never break through the Broncos' offensive line. Oregon sacked Maddux Madsen just once, allowing Ashton Jeanty to run freely into the secondary regularly. Failed pressure and missed tackles are fundamental areas Oregon needs to improve on.

Credit to Boise State's o-line for standing up to an unrelenting attack. But the Ducks need to improve their toothless pass rush.
Broncos Special Teams Were Anything But Special
It's not often that losses can be attributed to special teams, but that was the difference in Saturday's defeat.

Boise State gave up a punt return touchdown in the third quarter and a kickoff return touchdown in the fourth, accounting for Oregon's final two scores of the game. Those 14 points were the difference as the Broncos defense stood their ground against Oregon's offense. Still, the Broncos' special teams weren't good throughout, coming up short in coverage from start to finish.

Untimely, special teams' mistakes cost the Broncos against the Ducks issues that must be remedied before Week 3.
Ball Security Issues Will Haunt the Ducks Against Superior Competition
It's no secret that the Oregon Ducks are embarking on their Big Ten foray into 2024. They've afforded themselves some leeway by opening the season against lesser-than-competition; however, they can't afford to make these kinds of mistakes against their in-conference competition.

Oregon lost two fumbles in Saturday's win, both preventable. First, Patrick Herbert lost possession on a man-on-man hit. Dillon Gabriel fumbled the ball on the subsequent possession while running into contact. Boise State scored on both ensuing drives, giving them the lead in the fourth quarter.

The Ducks won't be able to overcome those mistakes against their Big Ten competition. While they escaped with the win in Week 2, don't be surprised if turnover issues haunt them later in the season.
Boise State Has More to Prove Before They Can be Taken Seriously
Touted as the premier Group of Five team ready to make the College Football Playoff, the Broncos have more to prove before they can be considered a contender.

With odds of +20000, Boise State is already considered a longshot, but losing to Oregon highlighted some concerning trends. The Broncos have a one-dimensional offense and an ineffective quarterback, limiting their offensive ceiling. Worse, their special teams couldn't hold up when they needed them most.

As it stands, Boise State doesn't have a complete program that allows them to compete with the college football heavyweights. Until they address their shortcomings, they'll remain distant +20000 longshots.
Oregon's Perceived Value is Trending Downward
An eventual win did nothing to pacify the sharpest bettors and college football pundits. Heading into Week 3, the Oregon Ducks are trending downward.

Oregon's nail-biting victory negatively impacted its position in the AP Poll. The Ducks fell to ninth in the rankings, dropping two spots from their previous position. Likewise, the betting market has lost faith in its ability. After opening as -20.5 chalk against the Oregon State Beavers next week, Oregon was bought down to -16.5.

Now 0-2 against the spread, if the Ducks continue to falter, they could slide all the way out of playoff contention.
Ashton Jeanty is a Heisman Frontrunner
We know the Boise State Broncos offense will always be ready to perform, but no one could have expected them to be this good. That's all thanks to the performance of Ashton Jeanty, who has cemented himself as a Heisman Trophy frontrunner with his early-season performances.

Jeanty ran rampant against the Oregon Ducks on Saturday, churning out 192 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries. That's in addition to the 267 yards and six touchdowns he added in the Broncos' season-opener against the Georgia Southern Eagles. That already puts him within reach of his career-best 14 scores he managed last season and fewer than 900 yards of his rushing total.

Oregon isn't a defensive juggernaut, but they're also no slouches. With an inferior Mountain West schedule on the horizon, Jeanty's +2800 odds of becoming the next Heisman Trophy winner are only going lower.

Breaking Down Oregon’s Close Call vs. Boise State: 10 Takeaways

BETTING NEWS

FUTURES

EDITOR'S PICKS

For the Best of SportsGrid, Grab the App

BETTING NEWS

FUTURES