College Football Week 10: Predicting the Outcomes of Every Big Ten Game

7:30 p.m. ET | USC (4-4, 2-4) @ Washington (4-4, 2-3) | BTN

Spread: USC -2.5 (-105) | Total: 55.5

This is a classic Pac-12 matchup with arguably the former conference’s top two traditional brands. On the Big Ten Network! What a time to be alive.

These are two of the better offenses in college football with talented skill players galore, starting with quarterbacks Miller Moss (16 TDs, 6 INTs) and Will Rogers (13 TDs, 4 INTs).

Washington’s Denzel Boston and Giles Jackson are over 500 receiving yards, with 6’4” sophomore Boston scoring nine touchdowns. Another 6’4” sophomore, Ja’Kobi Lane, has five TD catches to pace the Trojans. Makai Lemon leads USC with 378 receiving yards, one of four wideouts over 300 yards, and one of eight pass catchers with 190-plus. They spread it out.

Running backs Woody Marks (755 yards, 5.7 YPC, 8 TDs) and Jonah Coleman (785 yards, 6.7 YPC, 5 TDs) are two of the country’s most underrated rushers.

These are probably the best four-loss teams in college football. Washington has outgained every opponent this season, while USC has held fourth-quarter leads in all four defeats.

Score: Washington 31, USC 28

Noon ET | Minnesota (5-3, 3-2) @ No. 24 Illinois (6-2, 3-2) | FOX

Spread: Minnesota -3 (-105) | Total: 45.5

You might be surprised to see Minnesota favored in Champaign. I understand why, considering Illinois is ranked while the Gophers are not. The Illini have a better record—overall and in conference play. Their losses have been at No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State.

The Golden Gophers started 2-3 but have won their past three games, the longest winning streak in the Big Ten among teams with a loss. In those three wins, QB Max Brosmer has completed over 70 percent of his passes in each game (which he did once in the first five games versus FCS Rhode Island) with six TDs to no INTs, and his best two games in terms of yards per pass in seven FBS games.

While he averaged 9.7 YPA vs. Maryland and 8.9 YPA vs. USC, Brosmer dipped at UCLA (5.2 YPA), and their offensive line hasn’t been the same on the road. He’s been sacked 17 times, including five in their opener. In B1G play, Brosmer has taken two sacks in three home games (0.7) and eight in two road games (4.0 per game).

We see a similar trend with Luke Altmyer, who has eight TD passes to no INTs at home, compared to 5 TDs to three INTs on the road. He’s been sacked 12 times in three road games (4.0 per game) and 11 times in five home games (2.2 per game).

Minnesota is probably better, but by how much? Not enough to be favored on the road.

Score: Illinois 26, Minnesota 24

Noon ET | Northwestern (3-5, 1-4) @ Purdue (1-6, 0-4) | BTN

Spread: Northwestern -1.5 (-105) | Total: 46.5

What’s the opposite of the game of the year? That’s what this is, with the loser likely to finish last in the Big Ten this season.

The good news is the units are relatively evenly matched.

Northwestern’s offense is 126th in yards per play and 128th in success rate but might have a fighting chance against Purdue’s defense, which ranks 127th in yards per play and 109th in success rate. The same goes when the Boilermakers have the football, which pits an offense 49th in yards per play and 77th in success rate against a defense ranked 51st in yards per play and 89th in success rate.

Don’t worry. I’ll keep my eye on this one, so you don’t have to.

Score: Purdue 21, Northwestern 20

3:30 p.m. ET | No. 1 Oregon (8-0, 5-0) @ Michigan (5-3, 3-2) | CBS

Spread: Oregon -14.5 (-115) | Total: 45.5

Michigan cleaned some things up on offense last week and may have finally found their formula at quarterback with Davis Warren starting and Alex Orji mixing in as a running option. But does anyone believe their offense can keep up with Oregon’s offense?

The only chance the Wolverines have is if a defense—still chock-full of NFL talent—plays lights out and makes some game-changing plays. I’m talking about a pick-six by Will Johnson (who may not play) and a sack fest from their defensive line. With 6.5 sacks, 11 TFLs, and two forced fumbles, edge Josaiah Stewart can disrupt Oregon’s offense, as can tackles Mason Graham (3.5 sacks, 5.5 TFLs) and Kenneth Grant (2 sacks, 5 TFLs, 4 BUs), against the interior of the O-line, a vulnerability.

But we haven’t seen Michigan’s defense play to its full potential all season, and it’s their offense that’s more likely to make the big mistake against the Ducks, who match up well on the defensive side of the ball. Even if Jordan Burch doesn’t make his return, edge Matayo Uiagalelei (6.5 sacks, 8.5 TFLs) is having a breakout season, and Derrick Harmon (3.0 sacks, 5.5 TFLs, 2 FFS) is a handful up the middle.

Maybe Michigan can hang for a half, but we’ve seen nothing from the defending champs this season to indicate an upset is in the offing.

Score: Oregon 30, Michigan 16

3:30 p.m. ET | No. 1 Indiana (8-0, 5-0) @ Michigan State (4-4, 2-3) | Peacock

Spread: Indiana -7.5 | Total: 51.5

It sounds like Kurtis Rourke is trending toward returning for Saturday’s game in East Lansing. This season, the Ohio transfer has been spectacular: 1,941 yards, 74.6%, 10.7 YPA, and 15 TDs-3 INTs.

Yes, they scored 31 against Washington, but QB Tayven Jackson (57.9%, 6.5 YPA, and 1 TD-1 INT) was not nearly as sharp in their win over the Huskies. Now, the Hoosiers must go on the road in the harshest environment they will have faced this season (won at UCLA & Northwestern).

The Spartans are battle-tested, having played Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa, and Michigan in their past four games. They only have one win, which came at home over the Hawkeyes. 

I can see why some sharps might be on the home dog, but IU’s athletic defense is underrated and a tough matchup for a mistake-prone Spartans offense. They can get after the quarterback (B1G-leading 24 sacks) with an opportunistic secondary (9 INTs).

Score: Indiana 30, Michigan State 16

3:30 pm ET | UCLA (2-5, 1-4) @ Nebraska (5-3, 2-3) | BTN

Spread: Nebraska -6.5 | Total: 39.5

The Bruins have shown some signs of life over the past few weeks. UCLA held Penn State to 2.8 yards per carry in Beaver Stadium, led 17-14 over red-hot Minnesota into the final minute, and finally got their first win at Rutgers two weeks ago.

But do you trust the Bruins?

The Cornhuskers bounced back from their embarrassing performance at Indiana to push Ohio State to the brink at the Horseshoe last week. There’s one trustworthy unit in this game: Nebraska’s defense. They’ve held five of their opponents to ten points or less.

Could UCLA be victim number six?

Score: Nebraska 23, UCLA 13

7:30 PM ET | Wisconsin (5-3, 3-2) @ Iowa (5-3, 3-2) | NBC

Spread: Iowa -3 | Total: 40.5

This is a classic old-school Big Ten matchup, even before the days of the B1G West.

The Badgers’ three-game winning streak was snapped last week by Penn State. Wisconsin has fallen flat on its face whenever they’ve had to step up in competition, whether it be Alabama, PSU, or USC.

The Hawkeyes have beaten some bowl-caliber teams, including a 31-14 win at Minnesota and a 40-16 thumping of Washington. Iowa’s best has been better than Wisconsin’s, and I see no reason that should change on Saturday.

I trust Iowa’s defense more. Kaleb Johnson (1,144 yards, 7.8 YPC, 16 TDs) is the best offensive player either team has, and new QB1 Brendan Sullivan is a better fit for their offense, as he brings the added dimension of running the football.

Score: Iowa 23, Wisconsin 13

7:30 p.m. ET | USC (4-4, 2-4) @ Washington (4-4, 2-3) | BTN

Spread: USC -2.5 (-105) | Total: 55.5

This is a classic Pac-12 matchup with arguably the former conference’s top two traditional brands. On the Big Ten Network! What a time to be alive.

These are two of the better offenses in college football with talented skill players galore, starting with quarterbacks Miller Moss (16 TDs, 6 INTs) and Will Rogers (13 TDs, 4 INTs).

Washington’s Denzel Boston and Giles Jackson are over 500 receiving yards, with 6’4” sophomore Boston scoring nine touchdowns. Another 6’4” sophomore, Ja’Kobi Lane, has five TD catches to pace the Trojans. Makai Lemon leads USC with 378 receiving yards, one of four wideouts over 300 yards, and one of eight pass catchers with 190-plus. They spread it out.

Running backs Woody Marks (755 yards, 5.7 YPC, 8 TDs) and Jonah Coleman (785 yards, 6.7 YPC, 5 TDs) are two of the country’s most underrated rushers.

These are probably the best four-loss teams in college football. Washington has outgained every opponent this season, while USC has held fourth-quarter leads in all four defeats.

Score: Washington 31, USC 28