Noon ET | Minnesota (5-3, 3-2) @ No. 24 Illinois (6-2, 3-2) | FOX
Spread: Minnesota -3 (-105) | Total: 45.5
You might be surprised to see Minnesota favored in Champaign. I understand why, considering Illinois is ranked while the Gophers are not. The Illini have a better record—overall and in conference play. Their losses have been at No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State.
The Golden Gophers started 2-3 but have won their past three games, the longest winning streak in the Big Ten among teams with a loss. In those three wins, QB Max Brosmer has completed over 70 percent of his passes in each game (which he did once in the first five games versus FCS Rhode Island) with six TDs to no INTs, and his best two games in terms of yards per pass in seven FBS games.
While he averaged 9.7 YPA vs. Maryland and 8.9 YPA vs. USC, Brosmer dipped at UCLA (5.2 YPA), and their offensive line hasn’t been the same on the road. He’s been sacked 17 times, including five in their opener. In B1G play, Brosmer has taken two sacks in three home games (0.7) and eight in two road games (4.0 per game).
We see a similar trend with Luke Altmyer, who has eight TD passes to no INTs at home, compared to 5 TDs to three INTs on the road. He’s been sacked 12 times in three road games (4.0 per game) and 11 times in five home games (2.2 per game).
Minnesota is probably better, but by how much? Not enough to be favored on the road.
Score: Illinois 26, Minnesota 24
