College Football Week 12 Picks: Friday Night Lights Best Bets

This is it, the final month of the college football regular season. Teams are gearing up for playoff pushes, conference championship games, and just trying to stay bowl eligible.

We’ve got our favorite plays lined up for Week 12’s Friday night slate!

Where to Watch Clemson Tigers vs (20) Louisville Cardinals

Stadium: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Location: Louisville, KY
Where to Watch: ESPN
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Spread: LOU -2.5 | Total: 51.5
Moneyline: LOU -125 | CLEM +105

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

The Clemson Tigers’ season was over before it truly got started. Losers of three of its first four, Clemson was resigned to fighting for a bowl game berth within the first few weeks of the season. While they are still fighting for that humble distinction, the Tigers can embrace a more meaningful role in Week 2. They can play spoiler against a Louisville Cardinals squad that is desperately trying to stay in the ACC Championship Game picture. A loss versus Clemson guarantees the Cardinals’ ultimate demise.

For a team that ranks as highly as they do in defensive metrics, the Cardinals have not looked the part in recent outings. Last week, they gave up 427 yards to Cal, one of the worst offenses in the conference and country. Likewise, Boston College had a heyday a couple of weeks prior, putting up an above-average 24 points on Louisville. Going back to the end of September, four of the Cardinals’ last six opponents have recorded at least 24 points. That unflattering look carries them into a tougher-than-anticipated showdown versus the Tigers.

Granted, Clemson’s offensive struggles were an inhibiting factor at the start of the year. Still, they’ve turned a corner with their more recent performances. Over their last five games, the Tigers are averaging 36.4 points and 452.4 yards per game. More impressively, they have reached peak offensive production in most of those games, eclipsing 488 yards in three of five, including 560 yards against Duke two weeks ago.

This isn’t a Clemson team that will roll over and die. We’ve seen more offensive resolve from the Tigers, which will be a determining factor against the Cardinals’ weakening defense. Louisville’s advantage isn’t as prominent as the betting market implies. With that, we’re taking a stake of the Clemson Tigers straight up on the moneyline.

Best Bet: Clemson +105

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Where to Watch Minnesota Golden Gophers vs (8) Oregon Ducks

Stadium: Autzen Stadium
Location: Eugene, OR
Where to Watch: FOX
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Spread: ORE -25.5 | Total: 44.5
Moneyline: ORE -5000 | MINN +1500

The Big Ten Championship Game is not set in stone, and that leaves a glimmer of hope for the Oregon Ducks. The eighth-ranked National Championship contenders sit 5-1 in conference play, meaning they need to win out and hope either Indiana or Ohio State falters. The Ducks mounted a furious comeback in Week 11, but tonight’s clash versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers should be a more one-sided affair.

Oregon returns to the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium for Week 12’s intra-conference clash versus Minnesota. Still, that won’t be enough to break through their late-season slump. The Ducks have faltered in recent weeks, scoring 20 points or fewer in three of their last four. Moreover, their scoring woes are validated by limited offensive production. Oregon has fallen below 373 total yards in all but one of those contests, yielding a four-game average of 431.5 yards per game. Keep in mind, nearly half of that offensive production (750 yards) came versus Rutgers in Week 8.

The Golden Gophers are no defensive slouches, either. So far this season, Minnesota ranks in the top 40 in every major defensive category. They hold opponents to 311.6 yards (21st), 21.6 points (39th), 179.6 passing yards (36th), and 108.1 rushing yards (21st). Altogether, they will be prepared to limit the Ducks in any way possible, exacerbating their recent downward trend.

As good as they are defensively, the Golden Gophers don’t possess the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Ducks. Further, we expect Oregon to prioritize clock management to avoid letting another game slip away, which would hamper its already limited offensive ceiling. That points us toward two plays in this Big Ten clash. We’re getting a piece of the under, with Minnesota covering the four-score spread at Autzen Stadium.

Best Bet: MINN-ORE Under 44.5, Minnesota +25.5