Iowa State vs Arizona State Big 12 Championship Game Prediction | CFB Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
No conference was as rife with intrigue as the Big 12. Heading into Week 14, nine teams still had a shot at the Big 12 Championship Game. Alas, the Arizona State Sun Devils and Iowa State Cyclones prevailed, setting up a grudge match between the conference’s two best teams. The defense was the foundation of both teams’ success this season, but that doesn’t diminish their offensive productivity. Arizona State turned to Cam Skattebo and its ground game, while the Cyclones had a clear preference for their aerial assault. That pits strength against strength in what will become an instant classic at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
Where to Watch Iowa State vs Arizona State Big 12 Championship Game
- Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
- Time: Saturday, December 7 at 12:00 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: ABC
- Spread: Arizona State -2.5 | Moneyline: Arizona State -128 | Total: 49.5
Iowa State vs Arizona State Big 12 Championship Game Best Bet ATS: Iowa State +2.5
As good as the Sun Devils have looked defensively, they have been susceptible to the pass. ASU ranks top 30 in the country in total and scoring defense; however, their biggest vulnerability has been trying to contain opponents’ passing games. Two weeks ago, Jake Retzlaff and the BYU Cougars threw for 297 yards against the Sun Devils. The game prior, Avery Johnson totaled 258 yards. That plays into Rocco Becht’s strength as a high-volume passer. The Cyclones’ sophomore quarterback has thrown for 3,021 yards and 20 touchdowns on the season, surpassing 256 passing yards in six of his past eight appearances. The key to stopping the Sun Devils’ offense is corraling Cam Skattebo, and the Cyclones have enjoyed success in containing opposing running backs. Last week, they held DJ Giddens to 72 yards, a significant departure from his season average of 111.9 yards per game. Likewise, Utah Utes halfback Micah Bernard was held to just 42 yards on 17 carries the week prior. We’ve seen improved resolve from Iowa State’s rush defense, which will be the difference as they stay within +2.5 against Arizona State.
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Iowa State vs Arizona State Big 12 Championship Game Best Bet Total: Over 49.5
The Cyclones and Sun Devils have been solid, but not perfect, defensively. The betting market appears to be overvaluing their defensive prowess. Since Week 4, Iowa State has alternated between over and under in all their games. Still, when the total has been set at 50 or lower, the Cyclones are 4-1 to the over. Arizona State has been on a more pronounced over trend during the latter stages of the campaign. Since Week 10, the Sun Devils have eclipsed the total in four of five, with all but one of those totals sitting in the 50s. On that basis, we are betting that this game surpasses the 49.5-point total.
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Iowa State vs Arizona State Big 12 Championship Game Best Player Props
Cam Skattebo Over 35.5 Receiving Yards and +280 First Touchdown Scorer
The Cyclones will be keyed in on Cam Skattebo, but they won’t be able to limit his production altogether. The Sun Devils running back has been a featured player in both the running and passing games. While he has a lofty 120.5 rushing yard prop, Skattebo has a much more achievable 35.5 receiving yard total. More importantly, when called upon in the passing attack, he’s delivered game-changing performances. Skattebo has recorded four receptions in four of his past six outings, totaling 259 receiving yards on 20 receptions and 22 targets. That production has bumped him to second on the team in receptions and yards, while he sits a close third in target share. Predictably, Skattebo’s elite usage metrics correlate with some of the best-scoring benchmarks in the country. The senior has found paydirt six times over his previous three outings and has recorded 19 touchdowns on the season. Skattebo is the catalyst that drives the Sun Devils’ offense, and he’ll be given the first crack at finding the endzone as soon as ASU is in the red zone. He is a prized first-scoring option, and we expect him to deliver against Iowa State. Skattebo should have no problem surpassing 35.5 receiving yards and becoming the first touchdown scorer in the Big 12 Championship Game.
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