Oklahoma State vs Colorado Week 14 Prediction | College Football Picks Today, Best Bets

Thirteen weeks into the 2024 college football season, anything could still happen in the Big 12. After last week’s shocking results, the Big 12 conference sent a late-night memo explaining that 256 possible outcomes arise from Week 14’s results. Tangled in those outcomes are the Colorado Buffaloes. The Deion Sanders-led program appeared to be in the driver’s seat and almost assured of a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Then, a loss to the Kansas Jayhawks as road chalk sent them spiraling down the standings. Now, the Buffs need a big win over the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Friday, plus a little help from some other teams, if they hope to rekindle their championship aspirations.

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Where to Watch Oklahoma State vs Colorado

• Location: Folsom Field (Boulder, CO)
• Time: Friday, November 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: ABC
• Spread: Colorado -16.5 | Moneyline: Colorado -750 | Total: 65.5

Oklahoma State vs Colorado Best Bet ATS: Colorado -16.5

This is a hefty number, but given the Cowboys’ penchant for abandoning defense, we like Colorado’s chances of covering. Oklahoma State has one of the worst defenses in the country, bar none. They give up an astounding 35.5 points and 515.1 yards per game. While their scoring defense is only 17th-worst in the country, their total defense is the second-worst. Undoubtedly, the Cowboys’ most prominent weakness has been their inability to defend the pass. Opponents are averaging 272.8 passing yards per game, the tenth-most in the country. Moreover, that plays into the Buffaloes’ strength as a pass-first school. Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter, and Will Sheppard have been unleashing their fury all season and will be able to make one more lasting impression in this one. OK State hasn’t covered a spread since Week 8, whereas the Buffaloes are 8-3 against the spread this season, including 8-1 over their past nine. Those trends continue, with Colorado putting some distance between themselves and the Cowboys.

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Oklahoma State vs Colorado Best Bet Total: Over 65.5

While Colorado has been proficient on offense, the same can’t be said about their defense. With the Cowboys’ offense rating as competent, this game appears destined for more than 65.5 points. The Buffaloes’ secondary has been exposed late in the season. Colorado has given up an average of 235.0 passing yards per game over their past three, dropping their season average to a middling 208.7. Not surprisingly, that porous defense correlates with more high-scoring games. The Buffaloes have exceeded the total in two of those three games, with two totals eclipsing the 60-point threshold. Oklahoma State is on a similar ‘over’ run. The Cowboys have allowed their last seven opponents to reach at least 38 points, with an unforgiving 41.7-point average. Predictably, all but two of those games have gone over the total. We’re expecting another shootout on Friday afternoon, with this one eclipsing 65.5 points.

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Oklahoma State vs Colorado Best Player Props

Colorado Buffaloes Will Sheppard Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

All of the heat has been on Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. The two presumptive top picks in the upcoming NFL Draft have cemented their position as NFL-ready prospects, and their props reflect that. However, we’ve seen a resurgent Will Sheppard steal some of the spotlight in the latter stages of the campaign. We expect that upward trajectory to continue with Friday’s performance. While he wasn’t featured heavily in Week 13, Sheppard was a prominent fixture in the two proceeding weeks. The senior totaled 150 yards on 13 receptions, with top-end usage metrics in both contests. Sheppard absorbed 17 targets across those outings, representing a 20.2% target share. His 76.5% catch rate reflects his elite ability as a secondary target in the Buffaloes’ passing attack. Given Oklahoma State’s inability to defend the pass, Sheppard is poised for another strong outing. Any additional help will be levied on Hunter, allowing Sheppard to roam freely against inferior coverage. Those factors should enable him to surpass 59.5 receiving yards easily. 

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