NCAAF · 1 year ago

Predicting Every Big Ten Game for Week 5 | College Football Picks

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

11:00 PM ET | Oregon (3-0, 0-0) @ UCLA (1-2, 0-1) | FOX
Spread: Oregon -25.5 | Total: 55.5

Welcome to the Big Ten! The B1G schedule makers have sent the Ducks on the road for their first-ever Big Ten conference game, as they visit…UCLA? Wait, what? Really? Talk about no juice. After starting slowly and barely surviving Idaho and Boise State, Oregon flexed its feathers against its in-state rival, Oregon State. After starting slow and barely surviving Hawaii, UCLA was dominated by Indiana and LSU in the past two games. Dillon Gabriel has been very sharp (84% completion percentage, 9.7 YPA, 6 TDs, 0 INTs) and will shred a Bruins defense ranked 127th in dropback success rate and 89/dropback. UCLA loses by more than 17 points for the third-straight game, and Oregon wins their first Big Ten win (I guess).

Score: Oregon 42, UCLA 14
8:00 PM ET | Washington (3-1, 1-0) @ Rutgers (3-0, 0-0) | FOX
Spread: Rutgers -1.5 | Total: 45.5

I’ve watched both teams play, and Washington is the better team. Will Rogers III gives the Huskies the edge at quarterback, and he’s been even better than expected. Everyone loves Kyle Monangai, but Jonah Coleman doesn’t take a backseat in this matchup. I’ve also been very impressed with Steve Belichick’s defense, and despite many new parts, they’ve come together very quickly. Conversely, despite a soft schedule, Rutgers has been surprisingly easy to run on. The Huskies are the superior squad, and they go into New Jersey and hand the Scarlet Knights their first loss of the season.

Score: Washington 23, Rutgers 16
Noon ET | Minnesota (2-2, 0-1) @ Michigan (3-1, 1-0) | FOX
Spread: Michigan -10.5 | Total: 34.5

Michigan found their identity against USC last week. It’s mash and gash. Kalel Mullings, Donovan Edwards, and Alex Orji can run the ball on anybody. Be careful to overload the box because they will break off long runs. They are also due to hit a big pass off of play-action. The opportunity has been there in each of the past two games. As for Minnesota, we’ve already seen what the Gophers can do against an elite defense and offense that can run the ball with no passing attack (see Iowa Hawkeyes). They’ve shown they can do one thing well this season—play pass defense, which isn’t going to be very useful against Michigan. Wolverines win big.

Score: Michigan 31, Minnesota 10
Noon ET | Maryland (3-1, 0-1) @ Indiana (4-0, 1-0) | BTN
Spread: Indiana -6.5 | Total: 51.5

The perception is Indiana is clearly the better team, but I’m not so sure. Coming into the season, Maryland was viewed as having an edge, and that’s before we saw how well Billy Edwards Jr. could play. They haven’t missed Taulia Tagovailoa nearly as much as anticipated. It’s fair to adjust Indiana’s expectations based on their strong start, but considering the opposition, is it possible the market has overcorrected on the Hoosiers?

Score: Maryland 26, Indiana 24
Noon ET | Nebraska (3-1, 0-1) @ Purdue (1-2, 0-0) | Peacock
Spread: Nebraska -10.5 | Total: 47.5

The Huskers are coming off a disappointing home loss to Illinois and now go on the road for the first time this season. The good news is they’re headed to West Lafayette, where the Boilermakers can’t get out of their own way. They’ve been physically dominated at the line of scrimmage the past two weeks and have failed the eye test. The metrics are even worse. This is the type of opponent Nebraska can push around like they did in their first three games when they won by 33, 18, and 31 points.

Score: Nebraska 34, Purdue 17
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3:30 PM ET | Wisconsin (2-1, 0-1) @ USC (2-1, 0-0) | CBS
Spread: USC -23.5 | Total: 50.5

Considering how USC looked against Michigan, they’re thankful they’re not taking on a vintage ground-and-pound Wisconsin team with a tough, physical defense. Coming into the Coliseum with their backup QB, I expect the Badgers to have some success rushing the ball (4th in success rate). But with Braedyn Locke at the helm, the offense is limited. More concerning is their horrendous defense (80th in success rate, 106 in EPA), which lacks the big bodies upfront to take advantage of USC’s mediocre offensive line. The Trojans should bounce back and move the ball through the air and on the ground.

Score: USC 34, Wisconsin 17
7:00 PM ET | Ohio State (3-0, 0-0) @ Michigan State (3-1, 1-0) | Peacock
Spread: Ohio State -23.5 | Total: 48.5

Michigan State has played better than expected this season and nearly pulled off its second road upset last week. Sparty could be 4-0 but could easily be 2-2. My lean would be Ohio State, but 23.5 is a lot to lay on the road in conference, and while I don’t consider MSU a test, they are indeed the most formidable opponent on OSU’s September slate. A Michigan State offense led by a turnover-prone freshman quarterback is in trouble against what has been a dominant defense. That’s the biggest mismatch, but the number is too low (12.5) to back the MSU UNDER.

Score: Ohio State 37, Michigan State 10
7:30 PM ET | Illinois (4-0, 1-0) @ Penn State (3-0, 0-0) | NBC
Spread: Penn State State -17.5 | Total: 47.5

This line feels high, doesn’t it? Illinois is 4-0 and has two wins over ranked teams. Before you grab the points, consider when two ranked teams have played each other, and the spread is 17 points or higher; the favorites are 40-23 over the past 20 years. Likely, Kansas and Nebraska will not be ranked at the end of the season. Does that mean I’m on PSU? The numbers support taking the points and Illinois keeping it closer than the experts think, but a one-dimensional offense against an elite defense like PSU’s scares me away. Illinois has been much better in pass protection, but the Nittany Lions are a different monster. Through three games, the early returns of OC Andy Kotelnicki have been positive. Plus, this is a whiteout, and James Franklin is often a friend to favorite bettors with late scores to cover.

Score: Penn State 33, Illinois 14
11:00 PM ET | Oregon (3-0, 0-0) @ UCLA (1-2, 0-1) | FOX
Spread: Oregon -25.5 | Total: 55.5

Welcome to the Big Ten! The B1G schedule makers have sent the Ducks on the road for their first-ever Big Ten conference game, as they visit…UCLA? Wait, what? Really? Talk about no juice. After starting slowly and barely surviving Idaho and Boise State, Oregon flexed its feathers against its in-state rival, Oregon State. After starting slow and barely surviving Hawaii, UCLA was dominated by Indiana and LSU in the past two games. Dillon Gabriel has been very sharp (84% completion percentage, 9.7 YPA, 6 TDs, 0 INTs) and will shred a Bruins defense ranked 127th in dropback success rate and 89/dropback. UCLA loses by more than 17 points for the third-straight game, and Oregon wins their first Big Ten win (I guess).

Score: Oregon 42, UCLA 14
8:00 PM ET | Washington (3-1, 1-0) @ Rutgers (3-0, 0-0) | FOX
Spread: Rutgers -1.5 | Total: 45.5

I’ve watched both teams play, and Washington is the better team. Will Rogers III gives the Huskies the edge at quarterback, and he’s been even better than expected. Everyone loves Kyle Monangai, but Jonah Coleman doesn’t take a backseat in this matchup. I’ve also been very impressed with Steve Belichick’s defense, and despite many new parts, they’ve come together very quickly. Conversely, despite a soft schedule, Rutgers has been surprisingly easy to run on. The Huskies are the superior squad, and they go into New Jersey and hand the Scarlet Knights their first loss of the season.

Score: Washington 23, Rutgers 16

Predicting Every Big Ten Game for Week 5 | College Football Picks

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