NCAAF · 1 year ago

Predicting Every Big Ten Game for Week 8 | College Football Picks

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

7:30 PM ET | Iowa (4-2, 2-1) @ Michigan State (3-3, 1-2) | NBC
Spread: Michigan -5.5 (-105) | Total: 39.5

Can Sparty’s defense do enough to keep them in the game? If they’re counting on a freshman quarterback against Iowa’s defense, it could be a long night in East Lansing. Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson leads the Big Ten with 937 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns while gobbling up 7.9 yards per attempt. He’s played four full games against teams not named Ohio State (he averaged 5.7 YPC vs. OSU), and in those contests, Johnson has rushed for 187 yards (2 TDs), 173 yards (2 TDs), 206 yards (3 TDs), and 166 yards (2 TDs). MSU’s 24 tackles for loss versus the run are second only to Penn State in the Big Ten, led by a pair of transfer portal additions in blitzing linebacker Jordan Turner (6.5 TLs) and defensive tackle D’Quan Douse (4.5 TFLs).

Score: Iowa 23, Michigan State 13

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8:00 PM ET | No. 2 Oregon (4-0, 1-0) @ Purdue (1-6, 0-3) | FOX
Spread: Oregon -28.5 (-105) | Total: 60.5 (all lines are from BetMGM)

What if I told you there was a team… that would rise every few years…when facing a highly-ranked squad coming off a huge win… what if I told you…they were called the Spoilermakers? In Purdue’s first 18 quarters against Power 5 teams, they scored 47 points, including a lone field goal in the first half at Illinois (trailed 24-3). Then, something happened. Filling in for the injured Hudson Card, redshirt freshman Ryan Browne connected on a 53-yard touchdown pass, as the Boilermakers would score 46 points after intermission, losing 50-49 in OT. Browne finished with 293 passing yards (3 TDs) and 118 yards rushing (6.9 yards per carry). Can he keep Purdue in a shootout against Oregon, coming off their upset of Ohio State? It's probably not happening, but we can dream!

Score: Oregon 44, Purdue 17

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Noon ET | Nebraska (5-1, 2-1) @ No. 16 Indiana (6-0, 3-0) | FOX
Spread: Indiana -6.5 (-115) | Total: 50.5

We’re a Nebraska overtime loss to Illinois away from this being a battle of ranked undefeated teams. The Hoosiers have held up their end of the bargain, cruising into their Big Noon Kickoff unblemished. Cornhuskers true freshman Dylan Raiola was the most-hyped quarterback coming into the Big Ten. While he’s primarily backed it up, Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke has been the best passer in the conference. Rourke leads the B1G in QB rating (192.1), yards per pass (10.9), and TD passes (14-tied). I’ll take the veteran QB and better coach (look up Curt Cignetti’s record!) at home, as the Hoosiers remain undefeated.

Score: Indiana 30, Nebraska 20
Noon ET | UCLA (1-5, 0-4) @ Rutgers (4-2, 1-2) | FS1
Spread: Rutgers -4.5 | Total: 40.5

This is another one of those two time-zone games that hasn’t favored the Big Ten travelers, especially as underdogs. UCLA has covered the spread in their last two trips east of the Mississippi but has also lost by double digits at LSU (34-17) and Penn State (27-11). Underdog by less than a touchdown, this may be the Bruins’ last best chance at getting a conference win and avoiding a 0-9 inaugural season in the Big Ten. Rutgers might be just as desperate. The Scarlet Knights are coming off two straight losses—14-7 at Nebraska and 42-7 vs. Wisconsin—and a third defeat could jeopardize their bowl hopes. UCLA has the better quarterback in Ethan Garbers and might have the better defense, but the travel tole is building.

Score: Rutgers 20, UCLA 13
Noon ET | Wisconsin (4-2, 2-1) @ Northwestern (3-3, 1-2) | BTN
Spread: Wisconsin -7 | Total: 41.5

The two teams with the biggest blowout wins in the Big Ten last week (Wisconsin 42-7 at Rutgers, Northwestern 37-10 at Maryland)—both as underdogs and neither with their Week 1 starter at quarterback, no less—face off this week. After scoring 31 points in losses to Alabama and USC, the Badgers have responded with 94 points in the last two weeks. Former Oklahoma running back Tawee Walker is reminiscent of a vintage Wisconsin back, an angry runner between the tackles. Jack Lausch to Bryce Kirtz has become a dangerous combo over the past two weeks, with the dup connecting 13 times for 251 yards (19.3 YPC).

Score: Wisconsin 20, Northwestern 17
3:30 pm ET | No. 24 Michigan (4-2, 2-1) @ No. 23 Illinois (5-1, 2-1) | CBS
Spread: Michigan -3.5 (-105) | Total: 44.5

These teams do things very differently offensively. Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer is tied for the Big Ten lead with 14 TD passes to just one INT, with half of those scoring strikes going to Pat Bryant. Expect to see a lot of All-American CB Will Johnson on the Illini’s top playmaker in one of the best matchups of the day. Bryant (452 yards) leads a group that features four wideouts with over 120 receiving yards. Michigan’s most productive wide receiver is Semaj Morgan (78 yards), who is second to TE Colston Loveland (261 yards) in receiving yards. While the hope is Jack Tuttle—their third different starting quarterback this season—gives the Wolverines more balance offensively, they are still a run-first team that will go as far as Kalel Mullings (589 yards, 6.5 YPC, 6 TDs) and Donovan Edwards (353 yards, 4.8 YPC, 3 TDs) carry them. The problem for Illinois is they’ve struggled to stop the run.

Score: Michigan 24, Illinois 16
4:00 PM ET | USC (3-3, 1-3) @ Maryland (3-3, 0-3) | FS1
Spread: USC -7.5 (-105) | Total: 56.5

This bi-coastal Big Ten matchup features a pair of reeling teams: the Trojans and the Terps. Maryland won all three of its out-of-conference games to start the season 3-1 but is winless in the Big Ten and has dropped its past two games. Meanwhile, USC has lost three of four since rising to No. 11 in the AP Poll after its 2-0 start. Teams traveling through multiple time zones haven’t fared well in the B1G, but the favorite is 10-3 in those games. Two of those losses were by Lincoln Riley’s Men of Troy at Michigan and Minnesota. Can they snap the trend? The difference this Saturday is Maryland is a better matchup stylistically than the Wolverines or Gophers. Expect big games from the skill players on both sides. Maryland’s Tai Felton leads the Big Ten in receptions (55) and receiving yards (719), while USC’s Woody Marks has reached 100 yards rushing in four of his past five games.

Score: USC 31, Maryland 27
7:30 PM ET | Iowa (4-2, 2-1) @ Michigan State (3-3, 1-2) | NBC
Spread: Michigan -5.5 (-105) | Total: 39.5

Can Sparty’s defense do enough to keep them in the game? If they’re counting on a freshman quarterback against Iowa’s defense, it could be a long night in East Lansing. Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson leads the Big Ten with 937 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns while gobbling up 7.9 yards per attempt. He’s played four full games against teams not named Ohio State (he averaged 5.7 YPC vs. OSU), and in those contests, Johnson has rushed for 187 yards (2 TDs), 173 yards (2 TDs), 206 yards (3 TDs), and 166 yards (2 TDs). MSU’s 24 tackles for loss versus the run are second only to Penn State in the Big Ten, led by a pair of transfer portal additions in blitzing linebacker Jordan Turner (6.5 TLs) and defensive tackle D’Quan Douse (4.5 TFLs).

Score: Iowa 23, Michigan State 13

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8:00 PM ET | No. 2 Oregon (4-0, 1-0) @ Purdue (1-6, 0-3) | FOX
Spread: Oregon -28.5 (-105) | Total: 60.5 (all lines are from BetMGM)

What if I told you there was a team… that would rise every few years…when facing a highly-ranked squad coming off a huge win… what if I told you…they were called the Spoilermakers? In Purdue’s first 18 quarters against Power 5 teams, they scored 47 points, including a lone field goal in the first half at Illinois (trailed 24-3). Then, something happened. Filling in for the injured Hudson Card, redshirt freshman Ryan Browne connected on a 53-yard touchdown pass, as the Boilermakers would score 46 points after intermission, losing 50-49 in OT. Browne finished with 293 passing yards (3 TDs) and 118 yards rushing (6.9 yards per carry). Can he keep Purdue in a shootout against Oregon, coming off their upset of Ohio State? It's probably not happening, but we can dream!

Score: Oregon 44, Purdue 17

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Predicting Every Big Ten Game for Week 8 | College Football Picks

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