AFC East Betting Preview: Can the Buffalo Bills Hit the Over in 2025?

Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
As the 2025 NFL season approaches, bettors are closely watching the AFC East betting odds. The Buffalo Bills once again sit atop the projected win totals with a line set at 11.5 wins. But with a stronger division and a few question marks surrounding their roster, the big question is: Should you bet the over or under on the Bills’ win total?
Tackle the Odds with SportsGrid’s Expert NFL Game Picks and NFL Player Prop Picks.
Buffalo Bills Win Total: Why 12 Wins Is the Magic Number
The Bills have dominated the AFC East since the end of the Tom Brady–Bill Belichick era, but 2025 presents a tougher road. With the New York Jets expected to bounce back and the Patriots showing signs of serious improvement, the Bills may not cruise to a division title like in years past.
That said, there are reasons to be optimistic if you’re considering the over:
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Favorable home schedule: The Bills will host major opponents like the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, and Philadelphia Eagles at Highmark Stadium.
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Home-field advantage could be the deciding factor in reaching or exceeding that 12-win threshold.
Best bet: Take the over at 11.5 wins if you’re confident in Buffalo’s home dominance. A 12-5 season is a realistic target.
2025 Fantasy Football: Tight End Draft Strategy and Analysis
Fantasy Football Spotlight: Is Josh Allen Still a QB1?
When discussing Buffalo Bills futures or fantasy football rankings, you can’t ignore Josh Allen. He remains one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL:
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2024 stats: 3,700 passing yards, 28 TDs, 6 INTs
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Added value: 531 rushing yards
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Allen has finished as a top-2 fantasy QB in 5 straight seasons
While Allen’s rushing totals have dipped from his early career highs (700+ yards), he’s still producing enough on the ground to remain elite. Expect him to hover around 500 rushing yards, which helps preserve his health and long-term value.
Fantasy takeaway: Allen is worth a 3rd-round pick in most formats, especially if you plan to stack him with James Cook or tight end Dalton Kincaid.
Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles Stellar 2024 Season and 2025 Outlook
Betting on the Bills Backfield: Is James Cook a Touchdown Machine?
One of the most valuable fantasy and betting surprises in 2024 was James Cook. He delivered a breakout season with:
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16 rushing touchdowns
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2 receiving touchdowns
While some touchdown regression is likely, he remains a reliable RB2 with upside. Keep an eye on Ray Davis as a deeper stash option. He could become a valuable handcuff in both fantasy and prop betting markets.
Prop bet angle: Consider wagering on James Cook anytime touchdown props, especially in home games where Buffalo controls game script.
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Buffalo Bills Wide Receivers: A Betting Red Flag?
This is where things get dicey. With Stefon Diggs long gone, the Bills’ receiving corps is uninspiring:
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Khalil Shakir: Consistent floor, low ceiling
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Keon Coleman: Disappointing rookie year, needs massive improvement
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Josh Palmer: Talented, but injury-prone
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Dalton Kincaid & Dawson Knox: Solid tight ends, but not WR replacements
DFS players and fantasy managers may opt to stack Allen with Cook or Kincaid to capture the bulk of the Bills’ offensive output. From a betting standpoint, lack of elite WRs could limit Buffalo’s upside in high-scoring shootouts.
DFS tip: A Josh Allen–James Cook stack can help you dominate matchups, especially in games with high point totals.
Tier 6-7 Wide Receivers Heading Towards 2025 Season
Final Verdict: Bills Remain the Class of the AFC East… Barely
While the Jets and Patriots are improving, the Bills still have the best quarterback and coaching staff in the division. But they’ll need to rely heavily on Josh Allen’s playmaking and a strong defensive effort to fend off challengers.
Best Bets for 2025:
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✅ Buffalo Bills Over 11.5 Wins
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✅ Josh Allen to Lead QBs in Total Touchdowns
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✅ James Cook Anytime TD Props
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❌ Avoid wide receiver props unless value emerges midseason
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