Broncos vs Chargers TNF: 6 Favorite NFL Anytime Touchdown Best Bets & Who to Avoid

The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers will meet tonight in an AFC West clash on Thursday Night Football, so here are our top touchdown bets for the action and the guys you need to avoid. 

Courtland Sutton (+155)

Courtland Sutton is as elite a red-zone threat as you’ll find in this league. He’s amid a run where he’s averaged nearly ten targets per game across the past seven weeks. Over that stretch, he’s recorded just four touchdowns. At +155, we’re getting enough value to make a wager on a highly productive player. Plus, given the Broncos’ lack of a run game, he might be their top red zone threat.

Fade: Ladd McConkey (+130)

Ladd McConkey has put together an impressive rookie season that I don’t take likely, but I can’t back him to find the endzone at his current price range. At +130, he’s only scored five times this season and once across the last six weeks, and the Broncos have one of the most impressive pass defenses in football. Plus, we can’t discount the fact that the best cornerback in football, Pat Surtain, will likely be following him all game. If this were priced around +180, I’d look at it differently, but I would instead take my shot on guys with more attractive prices, knowing how much the Chargers’ offense spread the ball around.

How to Approach Broncos’ Running Backs?

If I’m being candid, I don’t know how we can find any value in any of the Broncos’ running backs. At +160, I don’t want any parts of Javonte Williams, as he now has had five straight games with less than ten carries, while I can get a much more reliable red-zone threat in Sutton at nearly an equal price. Jaleel McLaughlin has been ruled out tonight, elevating rookie Audric Estime to the RB2 role with a +390 price to score. While that is an attractive price on a running back in a split backfield, we’d be placing a ton of unfounded hope in a guy who hasn’t done anything this season. Maybe that’s for the better, but if anything, I’d rather bet Bo Nix to run in a touchdown at +360 as he’s done so four times this season and feels kind of due for another. 

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Must-Bet: Quentin Johnston (+250)

Quentin Johnston leads the Chargers’ wide receivers with eight touchdowns in the season and is coming in tonight having combined for 17 targets across the past two weeks, where he scored in each game. Knowing his touchdown production this season, getting him at +250 to score tonight is a joke, and now we’re getting him as he’s amidst a volume surge. I don’t know why anyone would back McConkey at +130 when you get Johnston at +250. This is a must-bet!

Value in Broncos’ Longshot Receivers?

We’re already looking to fade the Broncos’ backfield, and we should also fade the Broncos’ tight ends, as the Chargers’ defense has just allowed a single touchdown this season to opposing tight ends, opening up a ton of value for some of these Broncos’ wide receivers down the depth chart. Devaughn Vele is probably the safest bet to wind up as the WR2 behind Sutton, so he’s a safe touchdown bet at +360, but my favorite would have to be Marvin Mims Jr. at +550. He’s scored twice across the past four weeks as the Broncos are uncovering more ways to deploy his speed in this offense, making him an attractive play on primetime.

Chargers Running Back Value?

The Chargers were relatively confident earlier in the season running the football with JK Dobbins on the ground, but now that he’s injured, they’re back to an unpredictable split backfield. Gus Edwards is the safest bet at +165, as he’ll get any carries around the goal line, but he certainly isn’t a factor to break one beyond that. Rookie Kimani Vidal is priced at +320 behind him, and while I don’t see much value in him as he won’t see any of the goal-line work, he did record a receiving touchdown against the Broncos earlier this season.

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook