Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen’s Top Target ,Dalton Kincaid’s Fantasy Outlook

The Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen, and Dalton Kincaid

As we head into the 2024 NFL season, the Bills are once again a top contender in the AFC, with Josh Allen leading the charge. One of the most intriguing fantasy storylines surrounding the Bills is the development of tight-end Dalton Kincaid. After a promising rookie season, Kincaid is expected to take on an even larger role in the Bills’ offense. But the question remains: can he live up to the lofty expectations that have been set for him?

Josh Allen: The Cornerstone of the Bills’ Offense

Allen continues to be one of the premier quarterbacks in both the NFL and fantasy football. His dual-threat ability as a passer and runner makes him a consistent top-five fantasy QB. However, as the Bills look to reduce his rushing workload to preserve his longevity, the emphasis on his passing game will increase, making his connection with Kincaid even more critical.

Fantasy Strategy: Drafting Josh Allen as a Top-Tier QB

Where to Draft: Allen is a no-brainer in the early rounds, especially in leagues that reward rushing touchdowns and yards for quarterbacks. He’s a top-three QB in almost every format, and his ability to create plays with both his arm and legs ensures a high fantasy floor each week.
Betting Insight: Allen Passing Touchdowns: With the focus shifting more towards the passing game, betting on Allen to throw over 35 touchdowns could be a solid play. His chemistry with Kincaid, along with the presence of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, should provide plenty of scoring opportunities.

Dalton Kincaid: The Breakout Tight End?

Kincaid had a solid rookie season with 73 receptions for 673 yards but only found the end zone twice. The narrative heading into 2024 is that Kincaid could become Allen’s go-to target, especially in an offense lacking depth at wide receiver with the trade of Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. The question for fantasy managers is whether Kincaid can take that next step and become a true TE1.

Fantasy Strategy: Targeting Kincaid as a High-Upside TE1

Where to Draft: Kincaid is being drafted as a mid-to-late round TE1 with significant upside. If you believe in the narrative that he will see a 20% increase in production, he’s a steal at his current ADP. However, if you’re more cautious, he might be better suited as a high-end TE2 with the potential to break into the top tier.
Betting Insight: Kincaid Receiving Yards and Touchdowns: If Kincaid can improve on his rookie season, betting on him to surpass 800 receiving yards and 4-5 touchdowns could be a profitable play. However, his touchdown total is the most critical metric to watch, as an increase in red-zone usage could significantly boost his fantasy value.

The Supporting Cast: Pressure on Kincaid to Perform

The Bills’ wide receiver room is filled with question marks. There is hope for rookie Keon Coleman. The rest of the receiving corps, including names like Khalil Shakir and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, lacks proven production. This situation puts additional pressure on Kincaid to emerge as a reliable target for Allen.

Fantasy Strategy: Drafting the Bills’ WRs

Khalil Shakir and Others: These players are late-round dart throws at best. If you’re in a deep league, they might be worth a flyer, but don’t expect consistent production.
Betting Insight: Bills Total Points: Given the potential inconsistency in the receiving corps, betting on the Bills’ total points might be riskier than in past seasons. However, if Kincaid steps up, the offense could still be prolific, making the over-on-game totals a viable option in favorable matchups.

The Importance of Health and Development

For the Bills’ offense to reach its full potential, Dalton Kincaid needs to continue developing as a reliable target for Josh Allen, particularly in the red zone. Additionally, the Bills’ offensive line and Allen’s ability to stay healthy will be critical factors. If the offense clicks, Buffalo could be one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, with Kincaid playing a significant role.

Fantasy Strategy: Monitoring In-Season Development

In-Season Adjustments: If Kincaid starts strong, be prepared to trade for him early before his value skyrockets. Conversely, if he struggles, it might be wise to pivot to more reliable options or stash him on your bench until he finds his footing.
Betting Insight: In-Game Props: Keep an eye on Kincaid’s usage in the first few games. If he becomes a focal point in the offense, betting on his receptions or touchdown props in individual games could offer good value, especially in matchups against weaker defenses.

Final Thoughts

The Bills enter the 2024 season with high expectations, and much of their success will hinge on the connection between Allen and Kincaid. For fantasy managers, both players offer significant upside, but the key will be to manage expectations and adjust strategies based on how the season unfolds.

Allen remains a top-tier quarterback, while Kincaid has the potential to break out as a top fantasy tight end. However, with the lack of proven depth in the receiving corps, the pressure on Kincaid to produce is immense. Whether you’re drafting for your fantasy team or placing bets on the Bills, the development of this duo will be crucial to watch in 2024.