NFL: Are These Week 1 Storylines Hype Or Concern?

New England Patriots Playoff Push: HYPE

Yes, the New England Patriots have new, proven coaches in Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels with a young ascending QB in Drake Maye. They also have new schemes, four new starters on the offensive line, four of their six receivers are new, and seven new defensive starters. That’s a lot of moving pieces to expect to click in the first year together on both sides of the ball.

Micah Parsons’ Back: CONCERN

When Micah Parsons was traded to the Green Bay Packers, I thought we’d hear that his back was 100% healthy. Instead, we get the report that he’ll need an epidural as he’s suffering from an L4/L5 facet joint sprain. This is a major concern as an epidural isn’t a healing treatment, but rather a temporary band-aid.

I didn’t win over a lot of fans in Houston when J.J. Watt was diagnosed with a herniated disc, and I questioned if he’d ever be the same. While the two situations aren’t identical, they’re similar enough to have major concerns, especially after the price the Packers paid to acquire Parsons.

Watt was 27 years old at the time, following his first five NFL seasons, and didn’t play in the lead-up to the season. Parsons is 26 following his first four NFL seasons and didn’t play in the lead-up to the season.

In the four years prior to Watt’s 2016 season, he averaged 17 sacks / 30 TFLs / 48 QB hits. In the seven seasons to follow, from 2016-2022, Watt had two seasons topping 5 sacks (2018 & 2022) and three seasons with more than 5 TFLs (2018 / 2020 / 2022).

Despite averaging almost 50 QB hits in the four seasons prior to the herniated disc, he never passed 25 QB hits in the final seven years of his career. Watt failed to play in more than half of the team’s games in four of his final seven seasons.

Watt and Parsons were/are considered some of the best players to ever do it in the NFL. They are still human and due to their talent did/will be going up against multiple 300+ pound NFL offensive lineman, putting severe torque and strain on their backs.

Matthew Stafford’s Back: CONCERN

The Los Angeles Rams are putting out a full-court press from their team-friendly reporters, downplaying Matthew Stafford’s back concerns. It seems daily there’s a new article laying out how this is all part of the plan, how he didn’t need those reps, how he’s getting in quality family time, etc.

They all read like PR statements released by the Rams themselves. I’m not buying any of it. The velocity at which Stafford throws the ball, the sidearm throws, and different launch angles, combined with his history of back problems and age, is troublesome.

There’s an old country saying, “a hurt dog yelps”. The Rams are yelping with the mass leaks to their most trusted reporters, trying to change the narrative on Stafford’s back. It’s having an opposite effect on me as it screams, “We’re worried about this situation!” Now, in a couple of days, the perfectly fine Stafford will need his starting left tackle, who’s been out as well, to protect him from Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., but I’m sure it’ll be fine.

Tyreek Hill’s Character: CONCERN

Of course, this is a concern. We’ve all heard about the hot/crazy scale for women. At what point is a female too crazy to outweigh their hotness? Well, in the NFL, they have a similar scale for wide receivers with talent/baggage. Terrell Owens was the poster child for this. The situps in the driveway, the challenge of his own locker room to fight, etc. At some point, the crazy or character concerns tip the scales the other way.

Tyreek Hill has always had the talent, he lasted until the fifth round of the 2016 NFL draft due to domestic violence allegations. The Chiefs under Andy Reid have never been a franchise to turn away talented prospects with this in their background. But even for Reid, the continuous red flags made it worth parting with Hill while he still had max value, when Kansas City traded him away to the Dolphins.

Expectations are now that Hill could be shipped out of Miami after showing a decline in 2024. Forgive me if I’m lacking the energy to fake surprise at it possibly not ending well with him and the Dolphins.

Breece Hall’s Demise: HYPE

It’s true, Braelon Allen looks better and should have a bigger role in Year 2. The New York Jets also have a talented and capable back in another second-year player with Isaiah Davis. While they’ll get touches, let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

The Jets have a lack of receiving options outside of wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Breece Hall should be the second-most targeted player on the entire roster in the passing attack and is also a few years removed from a serious injury that happened in his rookie season.

If the Jets get knocked out of playoff contention, Hall could quite possibly get shipped out of town, but even then, he'll have a major role on the team that acquires him. The devaluing of Hall jumped the shark in the lead-up to the regular season.

Jonnu Smith Won’t See Volume: HYPE

So wait, Jonnu Smith, who caught more passes and touchdowns than Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle in the Miami Dolphins' 2024 offense, won’t see enough work in… Pittsburgh with DK Metcalf, Pat Freiermuth, Roman Wilson, and Calvin Austin III after they traded for him?

The Steelers will run a ton of two-tight end sets with Freiermuth and Smith on the field together. It’ll limit how many receivers they’ll need on the field, a position that they’re limited in as far as top-end talent and depth. Smith will get plenty of work in 2025.

Travis Hunter Spread Too Thin: CONCERN

Travis Hunter is fast, elusive, and has great ball skills. He’s also still not a finished product on either side of the ball, has a thin frame, and is developing at each position part-time. The talent is evident, but the plan for the Jacksonville Jaguars to maximize their ROI in Year 1 is short-sighted and naive.

New England Patriots Playoff Push: HYPE

Yes, the New England Patriots have new, proven coaches in Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels with a young ascending QB in Drake Maye. They also have new schemes, four new starters on the offensive line, four of their six receivers are new, and seven new defensive starters. That’s a lot of moving pieces to expect to click in the first year together on both sides of the ball.