Week 3 Thursday Night Football: Dolphins vs Bills NFL Betting Trends

Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season delivers a Thursday Night Football AFC East matchup as the Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins. With both teams trending in opposite directions, bettors are hammering the market at BetMGM.

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Dolphins vs Bills Spread Splits

• Buffalo Bills -12.5: 74% of bets, 77% of handle
• Miami Dolphins +12.5: 26% of bets, 23% of handle

Bettors are overwhelmingly backing Buffalo to cover at home. The Bills are 2-0 with wins over the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens, averaging 35.5 points per game (second in the NFL). Miami, meanwhile, is 0-2 with losses to the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts, scoring just 17.5 points per game (eighth-fewest). Add in the fact that Buffalo swept the Dolphins last year, and the handle clearly reflects public confidence in Josh Allen’s side.

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Dolphins vs Bills Game Total Splits

• Over 49.5: 63% of bets, 80% of handle
• Under 49.5: 37% of bets, 20% of handle

The Over is drawing heavy money, even with Buffalo favored by nearly two touchdowns. Bettors expect the Bills’ offense to continue rolling after putting up 41 points in Week 1 and 30 in last year’s November win over Miami. The Dolphins have allowed the second-most points in the league at 33.0 per game, and their defensive struggles make the Over an appealing bet.

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Dolphins vs Bills Moneyline Splits

• Bills -900: 45% of bets, 81% of handle
• Dolphins +600: 55% of bets, 19% of handle

While more tickets are being sprinkled on Miami’s longshot +600 moneyline, the sharp money is firmly on Buffalo. With Josh Allen holding a 12-2 career record against Miami (108.8 QB rating) and Tua Tagovailoa just 1-8 against Buffalo (80.5 QB rating), bettors are siding heavily with the home favorite to get the outright win.

Dolphins vs Bills Betting Trends to Know

• Buffalo has scored 30+ points in both games this season and ranks second in the NFL in scoring offense.
• Miami has allowed 33.0 points per game, second-most in the league.
• The Bills went 2-0 vs. Miami last year, winning 31-10 in South Beach and 30-27 at home.
• Josh Allen has dominated this rivalry, while Tua Tagovailoa continues to struggle against Buffalo’s defense.

Dolphins vs Bills Countdown to TNF Kickoff

Bettors are siding with the high-powered Bills offense and Josh Allen’s dominance in this AFC East rivalry. With Buffalo’s scoring pace, Miami’s defensive woes, and sharp money piling on the favorite, Thursday night’s matchup sets up as a lopsided showdown. The handle makes it clear: sportsbooks will need a Dolphins miracle to avoid heavy liability.