NFL · 1 hour ago

NFL Thursday Night Football: Dolphins vs Bills Best Bets

Gabriel Santiago

Host · Writer

‌

Thank the heavens, the NFL season (and all its spoils) has finally returned. Summer is on its way out, and fall is on the horizon. With that, there are betting opportunities every week between now and next February. We’ve got you covered for Week 3!

Where to Watch Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

Stadium: Highmark Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, NY
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Spread: BUF -11.5 | Total: 49.5 (-120/-102)
Moneyline: MIA +590 | BUF -850

TNF: Props | Anytime TDs: Bills | Dolphins

In 2025, the Buffalo Bills (2-0) are once again looking like a top team around the NFL. After two statement victories by Josh Allen and company, they are set to host the division-rival Miami Dolphins (0-2) on Thursday Night Football.

For a bit of polarity, Miami has struggled mightily in the current campaign. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is doing well to complete 72.7% of his passes right now, has been sacked eight times in just two contests. He’s also tossed three interceptions, but regardless, the franchise in South Florida is not playing winning football.

Allen and the Bills’ offense are thriving this year. They presently lead the NFL with 450 yards per game. From there, Buffalo’s 35.5 PPG lands second overall. That should play well versus the struggling ‘Fins: a team surrendering 139 rushing yards per game. Allen and tailback James Cook (135 yards and two scores last week) should be eager for this matchup. All signs here point to a lopsided affair.

Throughout his professional tenure, Allen has gone 6-0 SU when playing on Thursday. Knowing that, I am willing to take it further this week by laying the points, all 11.5 of them, on Buffalo. Miami is in a bad way; frustrations there seem to be nearing a boiling point. I think the Bills understand the assignment tonight, maintaining their perfect 2025 ATS record.

Best Bet: Bills -11.5 (-110)

Similar to the Chargers-Raiders last Monday, I don’t believe the Dolphins can hold up their share of scoring for this contest to reach 50 combined points.

We are all well aware of Buffalo’s dominance on the offensive side. Still, Miami is currently listed 25th overall in scoring, which feels far from when Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel arrived in 2022. Miami has already given the ball away four times in 2025: tied for second most right now.

The total of 49.5 is one of the highest we’ve seen in this young season. A number that large requires activity from both sides. With the ‘Fins scoring just 17.5 PPG, and Tagovailoa consistently running from defensive pressure, I see Buffalo victorious tonight somewhere in the margin of 35-7.