SOCCER · 5 hours ago

Kalshi Prediction Market Insights: 2026 UCL Quarterfinal Qualifiers & Betting Probabilities

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

The road to Budapest is set following the 2026 Champions League Round of 16 draw on Friday. While traditional sportsbooks are heavily focused on individual match moneylines for the upcoming March fixtures, sharp bettors are looking at the bigger picture via the Kalshi prediction market. By analyzing early trading volume and implied probabilities for the 2026 UCL Quarterfinals, we get a crystal-clear look at the true Champions League advancing odds.

From heavyweights solidifying their positions to massive statistical swings for teams like Tottenham Hotspur and Atalanta, this real-time market data provides the ultimate cheat sheet for how the European knockout stage is expected to unfold.

We’re picking Bayern to win the UEFA Champions League. Find out why here.

Mapping the UCL Quarterfinal Odds: Who Advances to the Final Eight?

While the initial draw reactions heavily favored a few key English and Italian clubs, the money has completely shifted the landscape of the tournament’s futures market.

The Heavy Favorites

According to the latest trading volume, Barcelona and Bayern Munich have surged to the top of the board, both with a dominant 85% probability of advancing. Arsenal, previously the consensus runaway lock, remains highly favored but has settled to an 84% probability, trading at a “Yes" price of 91¢. Rounding out the top tier is Diego Simeone’s Atlético Madrid, which holds a robust 82% probability of shutting down their London opposition and marching into the final eight.

Massive Market Shifts and Toss-Ups

The defining narrative of the updated market centers on wild volatility. Tottenham Hotspur has experienced a massive surge, climbing to a 40% probability after previously trading at the absolute bottom of the board. Conversely, early darlings like Atalanta and Newcastle United have plummeted; Atalanta crashed to an 18% probability against Bayern, while Newcastle dropped to 38% against Barcelona. Meanwhile, the heavyweight clash between Real Madrid and Manchester City continues to tighten, with City holding a narrow 55% edge over Madrid’s 42% probability.

Current Kalshi UCL Quarterfinals Qualifiers Market

Team	Probability to Qualify	Market “Yes" Price	Market “No" Price
Barcelona	85%	75¢	39¢
Bayern Munich	85%	85¢	16¢
Arsenal	84%	91¢	15¢
Atlético	82%	74¢	40¢
Sporting Lisbon	63%	71¢	45¢
PSG	57%	69¢	43¢
Manchester City	55%	70¢	44¢
Real Madrid	42%	41¢	67¢
Tottenham	40%	39¢	73¢
Bodoe/Glimt	38%	37¢	67¢
Newcastle	38%	38¢	76¢
Chelsea	38%	45¢	69¢
Liverpool	34%	85¢	25¢
Galatasaray	21%	21¢	90¢
Atalanta	18%	17¢	92¢
Leverkusen	16%	15¢	90¢

Prediction Markets fluctuate fast. Stay up to date on all the latest movement here.

With the Kalshi prediction market highlighting massive probability swings for clubs like Tottenham (40%) and Atalanta (18%), the timing of these first-leg fixtures becomes crucial for live bettors and futures traders alike. Whether you are tracking the Real Madrid vs. Manchester City heavyweight clash or looking to fade the public during the early windows in Istanbul, securing your wagers before kickoff is essential.

Below is the 2026 UCL Round of 16 schedule, complete with kickoff times so you can seamlessly plan your betting strategy around the opening whistle.

UCL Round of 16 Schedule (All Times ET)

Matchup	Leg 1 (Date / Time)	Leg 2 (Date / Time)
Galatasaray vs. Liverpool	Tue, Mar 10 @ 1:45 p.m.	Wed, Mar 18 @ 4:00 p.m.
Newcastle vs. Barcelona	Tue, Mar 10 @ 4:00 p.m.	Wed, Mar 18 @ 1:45 p.m.
Atlético Madrid vs. Tottenham	Tue, Mar 10 @ 4:00 p.m.	Wed, Mar 18 @ 1:45 p.m.
Atalanta vs. Bayern München	Tue, Mar 10 @ 4:00 p.m.	Wed, Mar 18 @ 4:00 p.m.
Leverkusen vs. Arsenal	Wed, Mar 11 @ 1:45 p.m.	Tue, Mar 17 @ 4:00 p.m.
Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP	Wed, Mar 11 @ 4:00 p.m.	Tue, Mar 17 @ 1:45 p.m.
PSG vs. Chelsea	Wed, Mar 11 @ 4:00 p.m.	Tue, Mar 17 @ 4:00 p.m.
Real Madrid vs. Man City	Wed, Mar 11 @ 4:00 p.m.	Tue, Mar 17 @ 4:00 p.m.