Analyzing the Impact: Lessons the Brewers Gained from the Josh Hader Trade

Did the Brewers Learn Anything?

Navigating the dynamics of a small market, Milwaukee’s front office consistently balances ambition with strategic asset management. The Brewers aim to maintain competitiveness in the NL Central while also maximizing the value of their star players through timely trades.

This approach was evident again this past offseason with their decision regarding ace and former Cy Young winner, Corbin Burnes. Instead of waiting until mid-season to see their standings and potentially trade Burnes, they chose to act during the offseason. This decision allowed them to reshape their roster and extract value from their top asset, avoiding potential fan or team discontent at a crucial mid-season juncture.

The strategy has paid off well this year. Joey Ortiz, acquired in the Burnes trade, has significantly contributed to the team’s success, especially at third base where he’s excelled defensively. He's also poised to possibly take over as the starting shortstop next year.

Meanwhile, the current shortstop, Willy Adames, who could have been a trade candidate, remains vital to the team. Given his leadership role and the Brewers’ strong position in the division, it's unlikely he will be traded this year.

These decisions underscore lessons learned from the Josh Hader trade regarding timing and market conditions for star players. With Burnes, the Brewers recognized that the risk of injury or diminished trade value mid-season was too great. The possibility of leading the division with Burnes at the helm would make a mid-season trade untenable both practically and optically.

Conversely, Adames presented a different scenario. Less risky due to his role and durability, the Brewers opted to keep him, boosting their competitive edge this season. Currently performing well, Adames is enhancing his value and may even appear in his first All-Star game, further justifying the decision to retain him.

As the season progresses, Milwaukee is well-placed at 44-30, leading the NL Central. They plan to utilize Adames for the rest of 2024 and will likely gain a compensation pick when he signs a major contract in free agency.

This adept management of assets, crucial for sustained success in a small market, highlights the Brewers' strategic acumen, making their front office one of the more proficient in Major League Baseball.

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Controversial Trade

As August 2022 began, the Brewers were leading the National League Central by three games, backed by one of the National League's strongest pitching staffs. They seemed poised for a division title run and were expected to add a hitter to enhance their chances for a deep playoff push.

However, on August 1, the Brewers made a surprising move that stunned the baseball community. Instead of acquiring additional assets, they traded four-time All-Star closer Josh Hader to San Diego. In return, Milwaukee received veteran pitchers Taylor Rogers and Dinelson Lamet, along with prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser.

The bewilderment arose not so much from the return package itself but from the timing of the trade. Fans were left wondering why a team leading the division would part with one of its key players. This decision continues to provoke discussion even now.

Nevertheless, the Brewers were looking to capitalize on Hader's value. With 1.5 years left of team control on his contract, they acted on an offer they considered fair, aiming to maximize their return.

Major League Return

Though the major league talent Milwaukee received from San Diego wasn't transformative, the components of the trade held some appeal.

Taylor Rogers, a proficient left-handed reliever, brought significant experience to the bullpen. Despite a higher-than-desired ERA of 4.35 at the time of the trade, Rogers had secured 28 saves that season, just one less than the league-leading 29 by Hader, positioning him second in all of baseball.

Replacing Hader directly was a formidable challenge, but the Brewers believed Rogers could mitigate the impact of the trade. They saw him as a capable high-leverage reliever or even a potential closer for the rest of the season.

Dinelson Lamet also piqued the interest of Brewers fans.

The then 27-year-old had a challenging run in his 13 bullpen outings for the Padres in 2022, with an ERA over nine and a WHIP exceeding two. Yet, just two years prior, Lamet had finished fourth in the National League Cy Young voting in 2020, boasting a 2.09 ERA, a 2.48 FIP, and averaging 12.13 strikeouts per nine innings as a starter.

Considered a secondary addition in the trade, Lamet was seen as a promising low-risk, high-reward prospect. Renowned for their prowess in developing pitchers, the Brewers viewed Lamet as a potential success story, hoping to harness his talent effectively in their pitching lab.

The Prospects

For the Brewers, the prospects they acquired held considerable potential.

Outfielder Esteury Ruiz, noted for being among the quickest in the minor leagues, saw his prospects brighten with each improvement at the plate. His speed was undeniable, and he proved himself a formidable base stealer, having stolen 119 bases across three levels from 2018 to 2021. In 2022 alone, Ruiz swiped 37 bases in 49 games at Double-A San Antonio and another 23 in 28 games at Triple-A El Paso.

Moreover, Ruiz was honing his hitting skills. In Double-A during 2022, he posted a .344/.476/.611 batting line. Upon his promotion to Triple-A, he maintained strong form, hitting .315 with a .474 on-base percentage before his trade to Milwaukee.

Left-handed pitcher Robert Gasser, ranked as San Diego’s seventh-best prospect by MLB Pipeline at the time, was considered a key asset in the trade. Despite a modest 4.18 ERA over 18 starts at High-A in 2022, his pitching arsenal and developmental trajectory were promising. After striking out more than 30% of batters at High-A Fort Wayne that year, the Brewers moved Gasser up to Double-A following the trade. While he still had some development ahead before reaching the majors, Gasser showed the potential to become a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter for Milwaukee.

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Two Years Later

In a decision that left many perplexed, Dinelson Lamet was designated for assignment merely two days after the trade, never getting a chance to don a Brewers uniform. Considered a potential asset when acquired, Lamet instead joined the Colorado Rockies, where he posted a 4.05 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP for the rest of the 2022 season.

Taylor Rogers also struggled to find his form with Milwaukee. He gave up five earned runs in his first four outings as a Brewer, and his performance didn't improve, concluding his time with the team with a 5.48 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 23 innings. Rogers was not retained after the 2022 season ended.

Although the Brewers had hoped the trade would bring promising young talent, the immediate major league returns were deeply disappointing for a player of Josh Hader's stature.

Ideally, the Brewers would have seen a seamless transition with Rogers stepping into Hader's closer role, complemented by Devin Williams, potentially keeping their playoff hopes alive without Hader. Unfortunately, that scenario did not materialize.

The Cost of Doing Business

Did David Stearns and his team underestimate the impact of trading away a player like Josh Hader? It's a legitimate question to ponder.

Entering the 2022 trade deadline, the Brewers were 12 games over .500 with a record of 57-45. Yet, from August 2 to the season's end, they posted a 29-31 record and missed the playoffs, marking their first absence since 2017 and snapping a four-year postseason streak. This late-season decline left both players and fans in Milwaukee with a sour taste.

By trading Hader, the Brewers prioritized future growth over immediate success, a strategy that had previously served them well. However, the decision to move such a pivotal player while leading their division raised questions about the timing and strategy.

Nonetheless, the trade did yield Robert Gasser, a promising pitcher with the potential to be a significant starter. Gasser took his first major league steps this season, showcasing his potential. Additionally, the Brewers capitalized on an abundance of outfield prospects by trading Esteury Ruiz, acquiring William Contreras in return, who has emerged as a potential MVP candidate and the team's top offensive performer.

This move underscores a harsh reality for small-market teams: sometimes difficult decisions are necessary to build sustained success. Despite questions about the adequacy of the return and the timing of the trade, the Brewers executed this strategy with a long-term vision, hoping it will pay dividends for years to come.

Did the Brewers Learn Anything?

Navigating the dynamics of a small market, Milwaukee’s front office consistently balances ambition with strategic asset management. The Brewers aim to maintain competitiveness in the NL Central while also maximizing the value of their star players through timely trades.

This approach was evident again this past offseason with their decision regarding ace and former Cy Young winner, Corbin Burnes. Instead of waiting until mid-season to see their standings and potentially trade Burnes, they chose to act during the offseason. This decision allowed them to reshape their roster and extract value from their top asset, avoiding potential fan or team discontent at a crucial mid-season juncture.

The strategy has paid off well this year. Joey Ortiz, acquired in the Burnes trade, has significantly contributed to the team’s success, especially at third base where he’s excelled defensively. He's also poised to possibly take over as the starting shortstop next year.

Meanwhile, the current shortstop, Willy Adames, who could have been a trade candidate, remains vital to the team. Given his leadership role and the Brewers’ strong position in the division, it's unlikely he will be traded this year.

These decisions underscore lessons learned from the Josh Hader trade regarding timing and market conditions for star players. With Burnes, the Brewers recognized that the risk of injury or diminished trade value mid-season was too great. The possibility of leading the division with Burnes at the helm would make a mid-season trade untenable both practically and optically.

Conversely, Adames presented a different scenario. Less risky due to his role and durability, the Brewers opted to keep him, boosting their competitive edge this season. Currently performing well, Adames is enhancing his value and may even appear in his first All-Star game, further justifying the decision to retain him.

As the season progresses, Milwaukee is well-placed at 44-30, leading the NL Central. They plan to utilize Adames for the rest of 2024 and will likely gain a compensation pick when he signs a major contract in free agency.

This adept management of assets, crucial for sustained success in a small market, highlights the Brewers' strategic acumen, making their front office one of the more proficient in Major League Baseball.

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