Astros’ Revamped Pitching Staff Poised for Postseason Success
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
What the Astros’ Pitching Surge Means in the Grand Scheme of Things
As the pitching has improved in the second half of the season, the Astros now appear to have the pitching depth to complement the long-standing firepower of their lineup.
The Astros' offense is ranked 10th in fWAR, eighth in wRC+, third in AVG, tenth in OBP, and 11th in SLG.
Their marquee players have been delivering strong performances in 2024. Yordan Alvarez has amassed 30 HR and 73 RBI with a .309/.395/.562 slash line and a 166 wRC+. He had an outstanding month recently, hitting .382 with a 1.178 OPS. Jose Altuve remains formidable at 34, with a .294 average and a 125 wRC+ over 136 games and 601 plate appearances.
Alex Bregman has overcome a sluggish start to hit .259 with a 115 wRC+, demonstrating superior plate discipline that places him above the 80th percentile in K-rate, chase rate, and whiff rate.
Kyle Tucker, who was in the MVP discussion earlier in the season, has returned from the injured list after suffering a fractured shin on June 3. Prior to his injury, Tucker had notched 19 HR and 40 RBI with a .266/.395/.584 slash line and a 175 wRC+ in 262 plate appearances.
With a balanced and potent team, the Astros are well-prepared for October, posing a significant challenge to any opponent they face. With their pitching now on par with their hitting, the aspirations for an eighth consecutive ALCS appearance and a third World Series title are increasingly within reach for Houston.
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The Revamped Houston Astros
The Houston Astros are staging one of the most remarkable comebacks of the 2024 season. Despite a challenging start that saw them trailing the Seattle Mariners by 10.0 games in the AL West and 7.5 games behind in the Wild Card race as of June 18, the Astros have executed a dramatic turnaround. By July 19, just after the All-Star break, they had erased the 10-game deficit to their division rivals, a lead they've largely maintained since, apart from briefly losing the top spot between August 3-7.
Despite missing Kyle Tucker, a then-AL MVP candidate, for part of this period, the Astros leveraged the formidable trio of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Alex Bregman to climb back into contention. Initially, doubts this season centered around their pitching. However, it's the Astros' pitchers who have recently stolen the spotlight, with a revitalized rotation and crucial bullpen contributions propelling the team forward.
As the postseason approaches, the synergy between the Astros' potent offense and rejuvenated pitching staff positions them strongly for another run at the AL pennant. Next, we'll dive into what has recently elevated the Astros' pitching staff to such impressive heights.
Early Injury Concerns
The Astros' rotation has faced continual challenges this year due to a spate of injuries. The season began without Luis Garcia, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery performed the previous year, and Lance McCullers Jr., sidelined since 2022 after flexor tendon surgery.
As the season progressed, they also lost Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgery, along with J.P. France, who underwent season-ending shoulder surgery. Additionally, Justin Verlander has battled health issues that have kept him out for an extended period.
Despite these setbacks and the absence of six pivotal starters at various points throughout 2024, the Astros have seen numerous pitchers make significant advancements. What was once viewed as a critical and possibly overwhelming weakness has transformed into one of the team’s strengths. Manager Joe Espada now finds himself with an abundance of options for assembling a postseason rotation.
Framber Valdez
Framber Valdez is undeniably the ace of the Astros rotation, and he's having another exceptional season. Over 24 starts, he's pitched 150.1 innings, securing a 13-6 record with a 3.11 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a .220 batting average against.
This season extends Valdez's streak of dominance, marking the fourth consecutive year he has pitched over 130 innings with an ERA below 3.50 and at least 11 wins.
Although Valdez's fastball velocity—averaging 90.3 mph, placing him in the 14th percentile per Baseball Savant—might not compare with the blazing fastballs of other elite pitchers, his breaking pitches have been particularly lethal this year.
Valdez's curveball, his signature secondary pitch, has overwhelmed batters, holding them to a .119 AVG and .189 SLG, with expected metrics closely aligning at .128 and .189 respectively. The curveball has induced whiffs at a 41.6% rate and has a 26.6% put-away rate.
Given his sustained excellence and his devastating curveball, Valdez is the prime candidate to start Game 1 for the Astros, who are likely to host an AL Wild Card series given the strength of their division and overall performance.
Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander hasn't displayed his characteristic dominance on the mound in 2024. He holds a 4.52 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .252 batting average against through 71.2 innings.
A noticeable decline in Verlander's strikeout ability is evident, marking the second consecutive year his K/9 rate has dipped below 8.00—a low not seen since his 2015 season with the Detroit Tigers.
Despite these struggles, Verlander's illustrious career, featuring a 3.27 career ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .224 average against over nearly 3,400 innings, cannot be overlooked. The 41-year-old's resume includes being the 2011 AL MVP, winning two World Series titles, and securing three Cy Young Awards. As of 2024, he ranks 17th all-time in career FanGraphs WAR for starting pitchers with an 81.4 mark.
Verlander also boasts a commendable postseason record, with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP across 226.0 innings. His postseason achievements include a stellar performance in the 2017 ALCS, where he earned ALCS MVP honors by going 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA over 16.0 innings.
While his specific role in the Astros' postseason lineup remains uncertain, Verlander's extensive experience ensures he will be a pivotal figure, whether as a starter or a swingman in the bullpen, in Houston's pursuit of another deep playoff run.
Hunter Brown
The 2024 season began harshly for Hunter Brown, who, after recording a 5.09 ERA in 2023, saw it skyrocket to 11.84 in April. However, Brown quickly turned things around, demonstrating remarkable consistency by posting mid-3.00s ERAs monthly, with exceptional performances in June and August where he achieved sub-2.00 ERAs. Currently, his season stats include a 3.41 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .240 average against.
Since the challenging start in April, Brown has emerged as one of the league’s top starters. From May 1 onwards, he has maintained a 2.28 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and limited opponents to a .213 batting average.
A key to Brown's success has been his ability to limit hard contact. He ranks in the 97th percentile for average exit velocity at 85.8 mph and the 98th percentile for hard-hit rate at 29.9%. Moreover, he's in the 93rd percentile in barrel rate at just 4.3%, effectively preventing batters from making solid contact.
Brown's consistent performance throughout the season has not only solidified his spot in the postseason rotation but also makes him a strong candidate for one of the pivotal starts in the best-of-three AL Wild Card series.
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Ronel Blanco
Ronel Blanco is enjoying an outstanding rookie season in the major leagues. He began with a bang, pitching a no-hitter on April 1, and has since maintained a 3.03 ERA, ranking as the second-best in the American League just behind Detroit's Tarik Skubal, who is leading the AL Cy Young race.
Blanco has also recorded a 1.09 WHIP and a remarkable .188 batting average against. Similar to his teammate Valdez, Blanco doesn't rely on overpowering fastballs; his fastball run value is in the 32nd percentile, and his average fastball velocity of 93.4 mph is in the 38th percentile.
However, like Valdez, Blanco's success in 2024 is largely due to his breaking pitches, with his breaking run value ranking him in the 100th percentile among pitchers. His slider, his second most-used pitch, has limited hitters to a .185 average and induced a whiff on 32.5% of swings. His least utilized but most effective pitch, the curveball, has held batters to a .063 average and achieved a 40.6% whiff rate.
Despite the Astros starters leading MLB in August with a 5.5 fWAR and a 2.59 ERA, Blanco experienced one of his less impressive months. Over five starts in August, he recorded a 4.07 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP, marking his second consecutive month with an ERA over 4.00, following a 4.40 ERA in July.
Blanco's situation might mirror that of Verlander, suggesting he has a definite role in the Astros’ postseason plans. However, given his recent performance and the strong form of his rotation peers, it's uncertain whether he'll serve as a starter or assume a long-relief, swingman role from the bullpen in the playoffs.
Yusei Kikuchi
One of Blanco's rotation-mates who has excelled over the past month, and also one of his newest teammates, is Yusei Kikuchi. Before being traded to Houston at the deadline, Kikuchi had an underwhelming stint with the Blue Jays, posting a 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and a .269 batting average against in 22 starts.
However, since his Astros debut on August 2, Kikuchi has significantly improved, recording a 2.57 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a .178 average against over 35.0 innings in six starts.
Additionally, Kikuchi's strikeout rate has increased noticeably since joining Houston, rising from a 10.12 K/9 in Toronto to 12.09 K/9 with the Astros. Given his impressive recent performance and the substantial assets Houston relinquished to acquire him (particularly as a rental), it's difficult to envision Kikuchi not being part of the postseason rotation. However, unlike Valdez and Brown, his starting a game in the Wild Card round isn't an absolute certainty.
Spencer Arrighetti
Spencer Arrighetti, like Kikuchi, hasn't had particularly strong overall stats this season, currently holding a 4.63 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. However, as the Astros' rotation excelled in August, so did Arrighetti. In five starts last month, he logged 32.1 innings, achieving a 1.95 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a .168 batting average against.
Arrighetti brings a unique element to the Astros' starting lineup in 2024: notable swing-and-miss capabilities. Throughout the season, he's maintained a strikeout rate in the 86th percentile at 28.0% and a whiff rate in the 76th percentile at 28.6%. His strikeout rate in August was an impressive 38.2%.
Despite his rough start to the season and his lack of postseason experience, which might limit his chances for a starting role in the playoffs, Arrighetti's strong ability to generate strikeouts positions him to play a significant role in October, offering a different skill set compared to his rotation peers.
Josh Hader
It's been a rollercoaster year for the Astros' $95 million man, Josh Hader. He endured a challenging April with a 7.45 ERA, only to rebound brilliantly in May, posting a 1.35 ERA.
The ups and downs persisted with a 3.38 ERA in June followed by a higher 5.23 ERA in August. Nonetheless, Hader is entering the final stretch of the regular season on a high note, having just completed his best month of 2024.
Last month, like his counterparts in the starting rotation, Hader delivered a pitching masterclass, achieving a 0.68 ERA and a 0.60 WHIP with eight saves over 13.1 innings.
Overall, Hader's season has been marked by his exceptional ability to induce swings and misses. In 2024, he ranks in the 100th percentile for both K-rate (38.5%) and whiff rate (40.3%). His advanced metrics continue to impress, with a 2.57 xERA and a .168 xBA, positioning him in the 98th and 99th percentiles, respectively.
An in-form Hader presents a formidable challenge for any team hoping to stage late-inning comebacks in October, adding a crucial dimension to an Astros team striving to enhance their legacy.
What the Astros’ Pitching Surge Means in the Grand Scheme of Things
As the pitching has improved in the second half of the season, the Astros now appear to have the pitching depth to complement the long-standing firepower of their lineup.
The Astros' offense is ranked 10th in fWAR, eighth in wRC+, third in AVG, tenth in OBP, and 11th in SLG.
Their marquee players have been delivering strong performances in 2024. Yordan Alvarez has amassed 30 HR and 73 RBI with a .309/.395/.562 slash line and a 166 wRC+. He had an outstanding month recently, hitting .382 with a 1.178 OPS. Jose Altuve remains formidable at 34, with a .294 average and a 125 wRC+ over 136 games and 601 plate appearances.
Alex Bregman has overcome a sluggish start to hit .259 with a 115 wRC+, demonstrating superior plate discipline that places him above the 80th percentile in K-rate, chase rate, and whiff rate.
Kyle Tucker, who was in the MVP discussion earlier in the season, has returned from the injured list after suffering a fractured shin on June 3. Prior to his injury, Tucker had notched 19 HR and 40 RBI with a .266/.395/.584 slash line and a 175 wRC+ in 262 plate appearances.
With a balanced and potent team, the Astros are well-prepared for October, posing a significant challenge to any opponent they face. With their pitching now on par with their hitting, the aspirations for an eighth consecutive ALCS appearance and a third World Series title are increasingly within reach for Houston.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
The Revamped Houston Astros
The Houston Astros are staging one of the most remarkable comebacks of the 2024 season. Despite a challenging start that saw them trailing the Seattle Mariners by 10.0 games in the AL West and 7.5 games behind in the Wild Card race as of June 18, the Astros have executed a dramatic turnaround. By July 19, just after the All-Star break, they had erased the 10-game deficit to their division rivals, a lead they've largely maintained since, apart from briefly losing the top spot between August 3-7.
Despite missing Kyle Tucker, a then-AL MVP candidate, for part of this period, the Astros leveraged the formidable trio of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Alex Bregman to climb back into contention. Initially, doubts this season centered around their pitching. However, it's the Astros' pitchers who have recently stolen the spotlight, with a revitalized rotation and crucial bullpen contributions propelling the team forward.
As the postseason approaches, the synergy between the Astros' potent offense and rejuvenated pitching staff positions them strongly for another run at the AL pennant. Next, we'll dive into what has recently elevated the Astros' pitching staff to such impressive heights.
