MLB · 1 year ago

Boom to Bust! 5 Overhyped MLB Players Due for a 2024 Downturn

Grant White

Host · Writer

1. Mookie Betts
Look away, Los Angeles Dodgers fans; this is a sight you don't want to see. After spending the offseason acquiring every big-name player they could, it will be one of their few longstanding players that causes their ultimate demise.

Find out where we have the Dodgers in our NL West Starting Rotation Rankings.

Mookie Betts had a banner year in 2023. His .987 OPS, 126 runs, 107 RBIs, and 39 home runs were nearly enough to overtake Ronald Acuna Jr. for the NL MVP, the second such award of his career. However, in accomplishing those feats, Betts pushed his metrics beyond sustainable levels, putting him on a collision course with regression this season.

Betts' OPS jumped over 100 points year-over-year, precipitating an increase in virtually every offensive category. But it's unfair to saddle him with similar expectations in 2024. In four seasons with the Dodgers, Betts is averaging 95.8 runs, 71.5 RBIs, and 28.3 home runs per season, keeping in mind the abbreviated 2020 campaign plays a role in those numbers. Still, he matched his run production from his time in Boston, and his OPS was hovering around the .870 mark in the two preceding seasons.

Truthfully, the Dodgers aren't even going to notice Betts' dip in production. Just know he won't replicate last year's success. It's safe to say that he won't come close to living up to his billing as a +650 frontrunner in the NL MVP market.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
5. Merrill Kelly
Not many players can boast that they've had a similar journey to Merrill Kelly. The Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher didn't make a major league appearance until he was 30, needing three seasons of intermittent success before cementing himself as a part of the rotation. After two effective years, it's time for the pendulum to start swinging the other way.

Kelly isn't as effective as his 2023 stats suggest. His 3.29 ERA was the second-best mark of his career, and came in below his 3.85 FIP. But his underlying metrics is where his profile comes unglued. Kelly put up below average numbers in expected batting average, fastball velocity, hard-hit rate, and sweet spot contact.

Baseball has a funny way of balancing itself out, and Kelly can't continue to get batters out and win games with his current form. He'll start suffering the effects of that regression very quickly, as he faces a daunting schedule amid deteriorating metrics.

Kelly's just not worth the risk in 2024, and a hard-pass as a mid-range +4000 option in Cy Young futures betting.

Swing for the fences once the season begins with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks
4. Marcell Ozuna
For whatever reason, instead of lighting their money on fire for warmth, some folks are investing in Marcell Ozuna as a +20000 candidate in the NL MVP race.

Ozuna has been one of the most mercurial players in the MLB over the past few seasons. Nevertheless, he continued his professional endeavors and re-established himself as a top threat in 2023. Unfortunately, that renaissance will be short-lived, as he's earmarked for regression this year.

For the first time since 2017, Ozuna cracked the century mark with 100 RBIs last season. Similarly, he scored the most runs since 2017 while setting a new benchmark in homers. Those numbers starkly contrast to what he was doing over the two prior years.

In 2021 and 2022, Ozuna combined for a Triple-A-worthy .675 OPS, with 168 strikeouts to 146 hits, with 55 of those going for extra bases.

The now 33-year-old won't be able to capture lightning in a bottle again this year. Inevitably, his metrics will fall back down within normal ranges, decreasing the impact Ozuna's bat will have on his Atlanta Braves teammates.
3. Blake Snell
While everyone is gearing up and stretching out for the upcoming campaign, Blake Snell is deciding which of the remaining offers he'd like to pursue. That puts him at a more pronounced disadvantage in what's expected to be an underwhelming campaign.

See if Snell's former team is on our 5 MLB Regression Teams List

Snell thrived in spite of his metrics last year, not because of them. The two-time Cy Young winner had an alarming 5.0 walks per nine innings, contributing to a less-than-stellar 1.19 WHIP. Somehow, that still came in beneath his career average of 1.24. That's irreconcilable with his 2.25 ERA and 3.44 FIP.

The last time Snell won the Cy Young, he followed it up with his most disastrous season as a pro. His 4.29 ERA from 2019 remains the worst of his career, and his WHIP jumped 30 points from 0.97 to 1.27. A similar trajectory is anticipated in 2024, and that only worsens the longer he stays out of Spring Training.

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2. Corey Seager
Consistency has been a limited factor in Corey Seager's professional career. Although he overcame those shortcomings last year, he will pay for it with this season's metrics.

For a brief moment in September 2023, it looked like Seager may be able to catch Shohei Ohtani for the AL MVP. Alas, it wasn't meant to be, with the former Dodger finishing a distant second place in voting. The more concerning issue is that we expect Seager to come nowhere close to matching last year's numbers.

Seager set high marks across the board. His 1.013 OPS was a deviation from his previous career-high of .943 in 2020. Likewise, his 96 RBIs and 75 extra-base hits were new high marks, while the Rangers shortstop managed to tie his previous career-best of 33 long fly balls.

His analytics profile paints a similar picture. Seager's barrel and expected slugging percentages were deviations from career norms, implying that an impending correction phase could cost him valuable run production.
The Texas Rangers have plenty to celebrate from last year; just don't expect the Corey Seager fan-fest to carry over.
1. Mookie Betts
Look away, Los Angeles Dodgers fans; this is a sight you don't want to see. After spending the offseason acquiring every big-name player they could, it will be one of their few longstanding players that causes their ultimate demise.

Find out where we have the Dodgers in our NL West Starting Rotation Rankings.

Mookie Betts had a banner year in 2023. His .987 OPS, 126 runs, 107 RBIs, and 39 home runs were nearly enough to overtake Ronald Acuna Jr. for the NL MVP, the second such award of his career. However, in accomplishing those feats, Betts pushed his metrics beyond sustainable levels, putting him on a collision course with regression this season.

Betts' OPS jumped over 100 points year-over-year, precipitating an increase in virtually every offensive category. But it's unfair to saddle him with similar expectations in 2024. In four seasons with the Dodgers, Betts is averaging 95.8 runs, 71.5 RBIs, and 28.3 home runs per season, keeping in mind the abbreviated 2020 campaign plays a role in those numbers. Still, he matched his run production from his time in Boston, and his OPS was hovering around the .870 mark in the two preceding seasons.

Truthfully, the Dodgers aren't even going to notice Betts' dip in production. Just know he won't replicate last year's success. It's safe to say that he won't come close to living up to his billing as a +650 frontrunner in the NL MVP market.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
5. Merrill Kelly
Not many players can boast that they've had a similar journey to Merrill Kelly. The Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher didn't make a major league appearance until he was 30, needing three seasons of intermittent success before cementing himself as a part of the rotation. After two effective years, it's time for the pendulum to start swinging the other way.

Kelly isn't as effective as his 2023 stats suggest. His 3.29 ERA was the second-best mark of his career, and came in below his 3.85 FIP. But his underlying metrics is where his profile comes unglued. Kelly put up below average numbers in expected batting average, fastball velocity, hard-hit rate, and sweet spot contact.

Baseball has a funny way of balancing itself out, and Kelly can't continue to get batters out and win games with his current form. He'll start suffering the effects of that regression very quickly, as he faces a daunting schedule amid deteriorating metrics.

Kelly's just not worth the risk in 2024, and a hard-pass as a mid-range +4000 option in Cy Young futures betting.

Swing for the fences once the season begins with SportsGrid’s free daily MLB Game Picks and MLB Prop Picks

Boom to Bust! 5 Overhyped MLB Players Due for a 2024 Downturn

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