MLB · 1 year ago

What’s Wrong With Boston Red Sox Starter Brayan Bello?

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

Setting Realistic Expectations for Brayan Bello
The Red Sox haven’t seen a pitching prospect generate this much early-career hype since Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. Comparing the 24-year-old Brayan Bello to these players, or even to Pedro Martinez, places an unfair burden on him. As an undersized starter from the Dominican Republic, Bello has been dubbed “Little Pedro,” leading to unrealistic expectations.

For the Red Sox to make a playoff push, Bello will need to play a significant role. While the team has managed to stay competitive thanks to other rotation members stepping up, Bello's talent suggests he is capable of much more. His expected statistics indicate a potential second-half resurgence, offering hope for a stronger performance moving forward.
Brayan Bello's Struggles Amid Red Sox Pitching Surprises
A major surprise this baseball season has been the performance of the Boston Red Sox pitching staff. Despite the initial disappointment among Red Sox Nation over the lack of high-profile free agent signings to strengthen the rotation, the appointment of Andrew Bailey as pitching coach has elevated the performance of many pitchers on the team.

One notable exception, however, is Brayan Bello. Once considered a potential standout in the rotation, Bello has struggled this season. After a promising start last year and signing an extension in the offseason, Bello was seen as a beacon of hope and a key figure in Boston's new era.

He was expected to be the cornerstone of the new core alongside players like Triston Casas, Ceddanne Rafaela, Jarren Duran, and top prospects Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel, and Roman Anthony.

Regrettably, the 2024 season has not unfolded as anticipated for Bello.

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Brayan Bello's 2024 Performance Decline
Brayan Bello's stats have taken a hit in 2024. After finishing last season with a 4.24 ERA over 28 starts, he's now struggling with a 4.83 ERA and a 1.4 WHIP. He's already allowed ten home runs this season, translating to a 1.3 HR/9 rate. Command has also been an issue, with 26 walks and a K/BB ratio below three.

Last year, Bello was reliable in going deep into games, pitching 157 innings to lead the Red Sox. This year, he has managed only three quality starts in 13 appearances, struggling to last through games.

Bello's advanced metrics are equally concerning. His pitching run value of -10 places him in the bottom 6% of the league, with no pitch category ranking in the top 70% of MLB. He is failing to miss bats, with both his K% and whiff % below the 50% mark, and he's allowing hard contact 42% of the time.

Even Bello's expected statistics have underperformed, with an expected ERA over 4.00, an FIP of 4.58, and an expected batting average against of .249.
Brayan Bello's Struggles Are Getting to Him
It's clear from watching Brayan Bello that his struggles are taking a toll, with frustrations visibly boiling over. In a June start against the Chicago White Sox, Bello slammed his glove on the mound after giving up a grand slam during a disastrous fifth inning.

In another June game, Bello spiked the baseball in frustration as he walked off the field in Toronto. His body language has often displayed his displeasure with the defense behind him. These outbursts have not endeared him to Red Sox fans, who are gradually losing patience with their once-promising prospect.

This raises the question: what is causing Bello's struggles this season?

Many theories exist, but a prominent one suggests that Bello needs to vary his pitch velocities better. His sinker, changeup, and slider all fall within a 10-mile-per-hour range, diminishing the effectiveness of each pitch.
Brayan Bello Needs to Mix Speeds Better
Brayan Bello's changeup has always been his best pitch, and many, including Red Sox broadcaster Lou Merloni, believe it could be even more effective if he reduced its velocity further below his sinker's speed, which is his primary fastball. Currently, the pitches are too similar, with only 1.4 inches of horizontal movement difference. This makes it easy for hitters to adjust, as guessing one pitch but getting the other still puts them in a good position to hit.

Another problem for Bello has been his sinker, which is being hit at an alarming rate. Last season, opponents batted .278 against the pitch, which, while not ideal, is significantly better than the .344 average they are hitting this season.

Reducing the changeup's velocity could also benefit the sinker, making it appear faster to hitters and making it more challenging for them to adjust between the two pitches, which make up over 70% of Bello's repertoire.

Despite these struggles, there's a glimmer of hope: the expected statistics for Bello’s sinker are significantly better than the actual numbers, suggesting he has been unlucky so far in 2024.

Bello has also completely abandoned his four-seam fastball, a significant adjustment made by pitching coach Andrew Bailey across the staff. Although this pitch was Bello’s second-least used, and opponents hit .310 against it last year, it might be worth reintroducing to provide hitters with something different.

Finally, there is a need to adjust expectations for Bello.
Setting Realistic Expectations for Brayan Bello
The Red Sox haven’t seen a pitching prospect generate this much early-career hype since Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. Comparing the 24-year-old Brayan Bello to these players, or even to Pedro Martinez, places an unfair burden on him. As an undersized starter from the Dominican Republic, Bello has been dubbed “Little Pedro,” leading to unrealistic expectations.

For the Red Sox to make a playoff push, Bello will need to play a significant role. While the team has managed to stay competitive thanks to other rotation members stepping up, Bello's talent suggests he is capable of much more. His expected statistics indicate a potential second-half resurgence, offering hope for a stronger performance moving forward.
Brayan Bello's Struggles Amid Red Sox Pitching Surprises
A major surprise this baseball season has been the performance of the Boston Red Sox pitching staff. Despite the initial disappointment among Red Sox Nation over the lack of high-profile free agent signings to strengthen the rotation, the appointment of Andrew Bailey as pitching coach has elevated the performance of many pitchers on the team.

One notable exception, however, is Brayan Bello. Once considered a potential standout in the rotation, Bello has struggled this season. After a promising start last year and signing an extension in the offseason, Bello was seen as a beacon of hope and a key figure in Boston's new era.

He was expected to be the cornerstone of the new core alongside players like Triston Casas, Ceddanne Rafaela, Jarren Duran, and top prospects Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel, and Roman Anthony.

Regrettably, the 2024 season has not unfolded as anticipated for Bello.

Have all the intel you need? Free actionable info is one click away! Sign up for our daily newsletter, SportsGrid Daily.

What’s Wrong With Boston Red Sox Starter Brayan Bello?

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